ATL: IRMA - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Anyone care to take a stab at Euro run? GFS, Nam and CMC trend east. Looks like UKMET is further east than forecast point. Will that take the spine out and close in on east coast runner?

I think Euro will probably shift east a little, maybe a run similar to the GFS but slightly west of it a few miles. We need to watch that trough closely to see if future runs continue slowing it down and digging it more...

Getting tired of this lol, just pick a side and stick with it. Stop being so compressible, atmosphere!

[USTropics]

Euro runs in a few right 145 ish?

Correct, initialization is normally between 1:50-2:00am ET (public data is released here - ftp://data-portal.ecmwf.int/ - normally takes about 2-5 minutes to then render that data into graphical output).

[latitude_20]

Stuck here in South Florida can't leave its s gridlock

It looks like Alligator Alley and I-75 are clear up to Wildwood. The slowdowns there should clear by the time you get there later tonight if you want to head out. Not sure whether you're going into GA or west into AL and how things would develop tomorrow morning but you have options.

Or you can ride it out here with us diehards that will be hanging on for dear life.

Just my humble opinion, but you might want to think twice about using the term "clear", when the situation is really in a state of flux. As for encouraging people to stay as a Cat 5 makes landfall, my best friends who have lived in Florida for decades are saying anyone who attempts to ride this one out is a fool.

[AtlanticWind]

I am really hoping it goes over the everglades and go down the middle ,that could avoid the our biggest
Population centers on the east coast and west coast from getting the core.
I feel guilty for saying this is I don't want to wish this on anybody and there are plenty
of people even on that path including the keys.But there are no good outcomes .

[tcast305]

Euro 00Z init:

[Nimbus]

Euro runs in a few right 145 ish?

Correct, initialization is normally between 1:50-2:00am ET (public data is released here - ftp://data-portal.ecmwf.int/ - normally takes about 2-5 minutes to then render that data into graphical output).

Although Irma is initialized a little further south of the 12z the 1016 MB line is a smidge further north initially. Many of the other models adjusted east a bit and we will be getting close to a 48 hour window for Miami so this is an important run as will tomorrows 12Z.

[pcolaman]

Looks to being pushed by the high

[tcast305]

Euro 24H:

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090800/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_2.png[/img]

[PTPatrick]

Euro 24H:

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090800/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_2.png[/img]

Looks a hair closer to Cuba... actually more than a hair...it may landfall Cuba at that rate

[wxmann_91]

Much closer to Cuba this run, wow. Maybe as far south as the UKMET.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Charley only needed 6 hours over the Straights to jump from a 2 to a 4...Irma may have 12-18...hmm.

[pcolaman]

Euro 24H:

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090800/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_2.png[/img]

Looks a hair closer to Cuba... actually more than a hair...it may landfall Cuba at that rate

Looks to be riding the coast line.

[northjaxpro]

0Z GFS ,has Irma traverse directly over the Jacksonville area as a 940.mb cat 3 hurricane on 18Z Monday afternoon. This run would be devastating here in Jax if it verifies. First, not only would we get devastating wind damage, but we would get a storm surge right into the river and tributaries that would be bad. I'm very very concerned about this particular run by the GFS. Also, this track keeps the eyewall hugging close up the East Coast of Florida, and allows Irma to not weaken drastically. The bend N/NW takes place between hr 60 -96 it just keeps keeps getting worse for us with the Jax area. As Irma keeps ever so slightly deviating a little west on these newest runs, it is putting the Jax area right inn the deadly northeast quadrant.

a devastating run for Jacksonville

[wxmann_91]

Charley only needed 6 hours over the Straights to jump from a 2 to a 4...Irma may have 12-18...hmm.

Irma is much, much larger -- takes longer to wind up again. Apples and oranges. That said, Irma may only lose one category of strength if in Cuba.

[tcast305]

Euro 48H:

[PTPatrick]

Back off coast at 48...and a little closer to previous run but still sw of it. It's also a bit weaker at 941 mb vs 920 over the straight, presumably from the land interaction

[tcast305]

Euro 72H:

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090800/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_4.png[/img]

A little west of the 12Z run, but still no good news for us in Miami. Going to bed hopefully someone can take over.

Thanks.

[Hurricane Andrew]

NHC doesn't seem to think Cuba will weaken Irma all that much...maybe the EURO is underestimating that?

[PTPatrick]

I'll go with landfall in the Everglades again. And sitting just east of Fort Meyers by 72 hrs.

[Nimbus]

Bad run for Orlando but it will justify the NHC official track so they won't need to change that in the short term.