ATL: IRMA - Models

[PandaCitrus]

My god. This latest GFS run is something to watch in HD. The eyewall of Irma goes through the center of every single coastal county from Miami-Dade to Duval.

https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1100z.html

[Bocadude85]

0z Canadian same landfall location as the 12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090800&fh=6

[pcolaman]

Stuck here in South Florida can't leave its s gridlock

Safe travels . Back roads are better if there is a way.

[Sanibel]

All up to Euro now...

[HDGator]

Stuck here in South Florida can't leave its s gridlock

It looks like Alligator Alley and I-75 are clear up to Wildwood. The slowdowns there should clear by the time you get there later tonight if you want to head out. Not sure whether you're going into GA or west into AL and how things would develop tomorrow morning but you have options.

Or you can ride it out here with us diehards that will be hanging on for dear life.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:

[bella_may]

I leave for a few hours and come back to find out the cone almost includes mobile now... what happened??

[caneman]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 72.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2017 0 21.1N 72.0W 936 95
1200UTC 08.09.2017 12 21.4N 74.6W 931 96
0000UTC 09.09.2017 24 21.9N 76.9W 929 91
1200UTC 09.09.2017 36 22.1N 79.0W 944 89
0000UTC 10.09.2017 48 22.6N 80.4W 942 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 60 23.4N 81.1W 936 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 72 24.9N 81.4W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 84 26.9N 81.4W 933 88
0000UTC 12.09.2017 96 29.5N 81.3W 954 75
1200UTC 12.09.2017 108 32.5N 81.8W 967 62
0000UTC 13.09.2017 120 35.1N 82.5W 990 28
1200UTC 13.09.2017 132 37.2N 83.0W 997 14

it appears to be too far south. Irma is already tracking right of the UKMET points

Not according to 11:00 NHC update. Which was:

21.3N 72.4W

[USTropics]

I leave for a few hours and come back to find out the cone almost includes mobile now... what happened??

The models are coming into better agreement on the shortwave trough creating a southeast to northwest flow as IRMA approaches, which will pinwheel the system to the northwest around the flow (this is for later in the forecast period).

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 72.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2017 0 21.1N 72.0W 936 95
1200UTC 08.09.2017 12 21.4N 74.6W 931 96
0000UTC 09.09.2017 24 21.9N 76.9W 929 91
1200UTC 09.09.2017 36 22.1N 79.0W 944 89
0000UTC 10.09.2017 48 22.6N 80.4W 942 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 60 23.4N 81.1W 936 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 72 24.9N 81.4W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 84 26.9N 81.4W 933 88
0000UTC 12.09.2017 96 29.5N 81.3W 954 75
1200UTC 12.09.2017 108 32.5N 81.8W 967 62
0000UTC 13.09.2017 120 35.1N 82.5W 990 28
1200UTC 13.09.2017 132 37.2N 83.0W 997 14

it appears to be too far south. Irma is already tracking right of the UKMET points

Not according to 11:00 NHC update. Which was:

21.3N 72.4W

yeah, it is. I fix it at 21.4N now, which is where the UK has it at 12Z. It's still moving WNW

[tgenius]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 72.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2017 0 21.1N 72.0W 936 95
1200UTC 08.09.2017 12 21.4N 74.6W 931 96
0000UTC 09.09.2017 24 21.9N 76.9W 929 91
1200UTC 09.09.2017 36 22.1N 79.0W 944 89
0000UTC 10.09.2017 48 22.6N 80.4W 942 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 60 23.4N 81.1W 936 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 72 24.9N 81.4W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 84 26.9N 81.4W 933 88
0000UTC 12.09.2017 96 29.5N 81.3W 954 75
1200UTC 12.09.2017 108 32.5N 81.8W 967 62
0000UTC 13.09.2017 120 35.1N 82.5W 990 28
1200UTC 13.09.2017 132 37.2N 83.0W 997 14

it appears to be too far south. Irma is already tracking right of the UKMET points

Not according to 11:00 NHC update. Which was:

21.3N 72.4W

yeah, it is. I fix it at 21.4N now, which is where the UK has it at 12Z. It's still moving WNW

Alyono,
Is UKMET still verifying as accurately as Euro? What is the margin of error on track for Euro or UKMET so far?

[caneman]

That would be better for us,on the West coast not so much for East coast. Maybe a foretelling that models and system are trending East coast and not up the spine?

[Alyono]

Not according to 11:00 NHC update. Which was:

21.3N 72.4W

yeah, it is. I fix it at 21.4N now, which is where the UK has it at 12Z. It's still moving WNW

Alyono,
Is UKMET still verifying as accurately as Euro? What is the margin of error on track for Euro or UKMET so far?

not keeping stats. Don't have time

[bamajammer4eva]

00z GFS wind forecast with it's East Bias shows 60+ mph gusts for Fort Rucker AL NW of Dothan which is of course nowhere near the centers path,



Link (time sensitive)
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... on&mean=on

I'd prefer that over Miami though -- Yikes

[Hurricane Andrew]

HWRF brings a strong cat 4 into southern FL...Miami-Dade in the RFQ.

[caneman]

Anyone care to take a stab at Euro run? GFS, Nam and CMC trend east. Looks like UKMET is further east than forecast point. Will that take the spine out and close in on east coast runner?

[bamajammer4eva]

Anyone care to take a stab at Euro run? GFS, Nam and CMC trend east. Looks like UKMET is further east than forecast point. Will that take the spine out and close in on east coast runner?

Navgem has been leading the way for some reason and Euro has seemed to follow it

It's 10 miles South of 18z at 30 hrs or about 30 miles South of 12z. I'd go with very little change in the Euro

[txwatcher91]

Anyone care to take a stab at Euro run? GFS, Nam and CMC trend east. Looks like UKMET is further east than forecast point. Will that take the spine out and close in on east coast runner?

I think Euro will probably shift east a little, maybe a run similar to the GFS but slightly west of it a few miles. We need to watch that trough closely to see if future runs continue slowing it down and digging it more...

[pcolaman]

Euro runs in a few right 145 ish?

[txwatcher91]

The GEFS mean shifted from the west coast of FL back to a Miami hit, traveling up the coast of FL and hitting SC/GA border.