ATL: IRMA - Models

[johngaltfla]

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

When Paul analyzed this, he pointed to the Euro's track record.

Now he looks a little worried.

Now, I'm in panic mode. A West Coast runner is as bad as an East Coast runner.

I'm hoping the NHC forecast pans out thus limiting my wind exposure to 90-120 mph.

I would bug out, Irma is huge and this won't be easy once it passes. If you have weeks of supplies and such probably not an issue but I really think we are looking at a very wide disaster area that may not feature total destruction all over but limbs and poles and so much crap in the roads it will be hard to move around for weeks.

Off topic: I could handle an EMP and 2 years on my own.

On topic: I'm amazed that the GFS eastward bias was so bad with this storm. Euro really has been head and shoulders excellent this season and last. What concerns me is that even with the new data inputs other models are missing so bad. For once (sorry Miami) I'm pulling for the HWRF.

[Frank P]

Can you please post that? Thanks!

quote="Frank P"]not sure if anyone watch the entire loop of the GFS but it goes up to middle TN, then loops down into N. MS and is heading south.. then run stops... how crazy is that...

[/quote]

Actually as the run continues this is as far as it goes into MS... then a later plot it just washes out at H156

[Extratropical94]

Can you please post that? Thanks!

quote="Frank P"]not sure if anyone watch the entire loop of the GFS but it goes up to middle TN, then loops down into N. MS and is heading south.. then run stops... how crazy is that...

[stormreader]

When Paul analyzed this, he pointed to the Euro's track record.

Now he looks a little worried.

Now, I'm in panic mode. A West Coast runner is as bad as an East Coast runner.

I'm hoping the NHC forecast pans out thus limiting my wind exposure to 90-120 mph.

I would bug out, Irma is huge and this won't be easy once it passes. If you have weeks of supplies and such probably not an issue but I really think we are looking at a very wide disaster area that may not feature total destruction all over but limbs and poles and so much crap in the roads it will be hard to move around for weeks.

Off topic: I could handle an EMP and 2 years on my own.

On topic: I'm amazed that the GFS eastward bias was so bad with this storm. Euro really has been head and shoulders excellent this season and last. What concerns me is that even with the new data inputs other models are missing so bad. For once (sorry Miami) I'm pulling for the HWRF.

This time, I'm not going to go as far as to say the GFS was bad. It and other models did some flipping. Its not really flipping all that many miles when you consider we were talking about 6 day then 5 day forecasts. But the Euro, has been unbelievably good with the 7 day or so forecast with this storm. It has pointed during that time frame at a tiny spot on the map, tip of Fl penninsula, it has stayed on it, and barring the unforeseen, it looks to materialize before our eyes.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF simulated satellite shows monster Category 4/5 Irma plowing into #Miami Sunday morning https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170910-1500z.html click map to zoom in

[EquusStorm]

Some of these model runs make this seem like a widespread damaging wind event in the southern Appalachians in addition to the flood risk. The GFS would suggest high winds in north AL where I am, but I am very concerned for GSMNP in TN/NC with all the barren ground and weakened trees from the fire last November. Much tree damage and slide risk.

[Hurrilurker]

Besides the obvious, the scary part of that is Jose kind of looping around lurking as a 950-ish hurricane.

[PTPatrick]

Agreed it's a horrible run for miamai and ft lauderal and most of the state inland. Key for their ultimate effects is going to be whether further shifts west happen. If it landfalls over Monroe and then up to fort Meyers, it will be bad for the big cities but less bad. Mileage will matter and I think at this point we know very well which coast is going to get blasted worst until tomorrow. Right now NHC is sticking with the sweep thru the cities, so we need to assume that's what is going to happen.

[wayoutfront]

worst possible path...geez

[NDG]

The NHC did the right thing of moving the track westward, they know the GFS has been right biased.

[Sanibel]

Edit

[Sanibel]

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

When Paul analyzed this, he pointed to the Euro's track record.

Now he looks a little worried.

Now, I'm in panic mode. A West Coast runner is as bad as an East Coast runner.

I'm hoping the NHC forecast pans out thus limiting my wind exposure to 90-120 mph.

Yeah - I know what you mean...I'm still here, just got all planters in from yard and porches cleared...Main documents are boxed and in car...


What I'm worried about is we are in the final shift being led by Euro that will resolve right over Sanibel...


If there were any fringe Fujiwara effects they would drive the left storm west...

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... Tad S through 30 hours...

18z HMON... Slightly N through 45 hours...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

that truly is the worst scenario. Its also going to run over lake okcheechobee which is hot and shallow and will recharge it or maintain its intensity

[wayoutfront]

The NHC did the right thing of moving the track westward, they know the GFS has been right biased.

I hope they totally screwed up ...But we will know Sat

I feel for them guys ...this has to be some of their hardest work with the models bouncing so frequently and so much riding on them ...

To make this call right up the turnpike after the 2pm didn't change much .....takes a focus i don't have

[Blown Away]

18z HMON landfall Key Biscanye... No change from 12z...

Goes Due N between Lake O and WPB and back out to Atlantic...

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF making the turn

[Blown Away]

[quote="gatorcane"]18Z HWRF making the turn

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/ifu5e6u61/hwrf_mslp_wind_11_L_17.png][/quote

That angle at the turn so critical for points N of Miami...

[northjaxpro]

Really rides the coast all the way up. This puts the eastern eyewall just on shore with a large chunk of the storms core still over water. In my opinion this would allow Irma to remain stronger as it scoots north vs a central spine run. This is about as catastrophic of a run as I've seen yet. Really hope it doesn't verify.

The worst case scenario from the Keys all the way to through Jacksonville and points north along the Georgia coast. This would be devastating if this track verifies.

[gatorcane]

Yikes: