Bold Prediction here folks.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't buy this mexican south fade crap...I although agree w/the south to SW drift to Stationary for many days to come..I am normally a JB fan and agree w/him 99% of the time but I just can't see this happening this time. This is a FL event whether it be a cane to rain...Conditions aloft will change by the 5 day period and Climatoligy says FL...We will see..When it happens remember it was DESTRUCTION5 that said so..

[donsutherland1]

Destruction5,

You might want to examine the behavior of past tropical systems in the Bay of Campeche, particularly those south of 21N during October rather than all GOM systems. The seasonal climatology argues strongly against Larry's heading for Florida given its location.

[Josephine96]

Destruction- I'm not a "wishcaster" {not saying you are so please don't think that..} but in some ways shapes and forms I agree with you.. A front will come down and swoop him this way maybe.. we shall see.

[Stormsfury]

I don't buy this mexican south fade crap...I although agree w/the south to SW drift to Stationary for many days to come..I am normally a JB fan and agree w/him 99% of the time but I just can't see this happening this time. This is a FL event whether it be a cane to rain...Conditions aloft will change by the 5 day period and Climatoligy says FL...We will see..When it happens remember it was DESTRUCTION5 that said so..

Take a look at the reanalysis maps of Opal, Roxanne, and the forecasted 500mb of the EURO and GFS. CLEARLY not the case.

In Opal's regard, unusually warm conditions dominated around a subtropical ridge in the Southeastern States. Meanwhile, a huge trough dug its way into the GOM and subsequentially pulled Opal rapidly northward.

In Roxanne's case, a zonal flow with many weaker troughs basically bypassed the storm and left it there to sit and spin.

In Larry's case, the large trough is stuck in the Eastern 1/3 of the US this time, and is having no effect except sending a jet streak across the Central and Northern GOM. The further north Larry is, the more sheared it becomes. Larry is basically squashed like a bug and has no appreciable steering currents.

SF

[JetMaxx]

Climatology says Larry is no threat to the Florida peninsula.

Check the Unisys hurricane archives website and look at those past hurricane tracks...tropical storms in the BOC in the month of October. Very few ever escape Mexico's mountains....and no major Florida peninsula hurricane has ever originated in the Bay of Campeche....not since 1845.

[dixiebreeze]

All of the arguments are pretty valid ------ except.....Larry is spreading NE as we speak this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[ncweatherwizard]

All of the arguments are pretty valid ------ except.....Larry is spreading NE as we speak this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

The clouds on the northeast side of Larry are being sheared off to the northeast, but I don't really see an actual spread to the northeast in the sense of the entire system. Finding the center of circulation takes a bit of studying, but after finding that, you can see that it is nearly motionless. Just another sign of disorganization. IMO, Larry is just a broad area of low pressure with strong thunderstorms displaced ahead of it--still "classifiable" as a tropical storm, just not a well-developed one.

[GulfTide]

Two weeks ago, we received rain and moisture from the Hurricane in the Pacific. Florida will receive similiar features from this storm. The storm will probably go to Mexico with Florida receiving more rain,

[stormchazer]

No disrespect intended but if you see Larry going Northeast you are "-removed-" even though it may be unintentional. All current conditions point toward it never leaving the BoC. If you live on the Gulfcoast, then I think you are better served to watch the Carribean. That is where the real monster may start brewing.

Now, back to those who know what they are talking about. Remember that I am only a little Tropical Wave.

[cycloneye]

That Bold prediction that you say will happen is not going to happen as Stormsfury described the OPAL pattern is not there this time around as the synoptic pattern is different.

[JetMaxx]

I agree with stormchazer....if you live in southern Florida, keep your eyes toward the Western Caribbean...the area south of Cuba and Jamaica and east of Central America. That's where every single major hurricane to ever strike the Florida peninsula in October has came from -- not the Bay of Campeche.

[ColdFront77]

The high pressure moving offshore will not have a southwest flow on Larry, regardless if a trough digs deep down into the western Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche...

For the last several years I have heard and it has been discussued here that tropical cyclones recurve northeastward toward and/or into the northeastern Gulf coast and/or Florida; the eastern Gulf coast.

There is a first time for everything.

[Stormsfury]

I agree with stormchazer....if you live in southern Florida, keep your eyes toward the Western Caribbean...the area south of Cuba and Jamaica and east of Central America. That's where every single major hurricane to ever strike the Florida peninsula in October has came from -- not the Bay of Campeche.

I thought about this a lot today after looking at just about every model run I could view and definitely stayed up way too late last night. Definitely felt like crap at work after only 5 hours sleep and needless to say, I didn't want to work ANOTHER 10 day. (5 of them in a row have left me exhausted).

Basically with the potential disturbance in the Western Caribbean. At least, IMO, the potential for the moisture to be drawn northward in between Larry and a subtropical ridge in the ATL. Furthermore, troughiness remains planted across the Eastern States in the short term. I haven't had a chance to absorb all the details yet since I just basically got home and trying to catch up.

SF

[Guest]

Don weather weenies like Destruction5 are dealing in fantasy--- science and reason have little to do with their thinking or lack thereof...

Destruction- I'm not a "wishcaster" {not saying you are so please don't think that..} but in some ways shapes and forms I agree with you.. A front will come down and swoop him this way maybe.. we shall see.

[Stormcenter]

Aren't insults like those by DT toward other posters comments "not" suppose to be not tolerated on this board?

[Guest]

Well stormcenter sometimes people need a little reminders especially with statements like that such a Destruction5 made! Same goes for anyone else who sees Larry as a FL threat!

[JetMaxx]

DT just told the truth....this thread by DESTRUCTION5 was sheer -removed- at it's worst.

To make a bold prediction while holding a poker hand of 4 aces is fine and dandy. To make one holding nothing but a handful of 3's, 6's, and a joker is foolhardy.

There is absolutely no synoptic, upper air, or model data to support DESTRUCTION5's prediction of a Florida landfall....what else can it be called except a wishcast?

[ColdFront77]

Members of this board have their opinions and Destruction5 made his.

What the current forecast and the ultimate track is for Larry can be two different things, especially with a storm hardly moving. The three and five day forecast haven't moved the system all that much, in such a case new data can change quite a bit.

[Guest]

Your KIDDING me right Tom?????? Please say you are....................You cannot tell me that was not no wishcast???????

[JetMaxx]

It won't change Tom....believe me...it won't (this cold, dry pattern is IMO here to stay...kids in Atlanta should get prepared to trick or treat wearing their winter coats).