ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

large clearing eye .. but look at that stadium effect.. view from plane must be cool if there is any lightning..

[marionstorm]

Remember people Marion County isn't a good place to evacuate to, ya'll will want to go a bit further up the road. Trust me and spread the news, Ocala is a terrible evacuation location. Gainesville is where its at.

[Nimbus]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

It's still on track and not supposed to turn until tomorrow.

Not to speak on his behalf, but I believe he meant there was a small window to turn earlier and it missed that chance, basically avoiding PR.

Last night I was thinking 17N at 58W would make a good benchmark, official forecast is a few minutes south of there. Maybe I should stop listening to old Beatles on you tube and skip coffee in the mornings..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050046
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 24 20170905
003700 1800N 05628W 6970 03157 0042 +110 +041 058052 053 034 001 00
003730 1800N 05630W 6971 03155 0045 +105 +046 058051 052 034 000 00
003800 1800N 05632W 6966 03162 0051 +102 +050 060054 054 034 000 00
003830 1800N 05634W 6967 03162 0054 +101 +050 059052 054 035 000 00
003900 1800N 05637W 6961 03168 0053 +100 +047 058049 052 035 000 03
003930 1758N 05637W 6967 03160 0055 +100 +049 059046 048 /// /// 03
004000 1756N 05636W 6971 03154 0051 +101 +050 058044 046 032 001 00
004030 1755N 05635W 6967 03157 0045 +105 +045 056044 045 032 001 00
004100 1754N 05634W 6968 03155 0038 +109 +043 056045 045 032 001 00
004130 1753N 05632W 6969 03151 0032 +110 +042 058047 048 033 001 00
004200 1752N 05631W 6965 03155 0030 +109 +044 061049 049 034 001 00
004230 1751N 05630W 6969 03147 0032 +106 +061 062050 052 034 001 00
004300 1749N 05629W 6967 03149 0034 +104 +052 060049 052 034 001 00
004330 1748N 05628W 6969 03144 0035 +101 +052 060048 050 035 001 00
004400 1747N 05626W 6967 03144 0035 +100 +050 062052 053 036 000 00
004430 1746N 05625W 6967 03145 0034 +099 +050 064053 053 036 002 00
004500 1745N 05624W 6966 03143 0023 +106 +048 061053 054 036 001 00
004530 1744N 05623W 6969 03138 0021 +105 +059 063055 055 036 001 00
004600 1743N 05622W 6965 03140 0018 +105 +074 062056 056 037 001 00
004630 1741N 05620W 6967 03136 0024 +098 +093 063057 058 036 001 00
$$

[floridasun78]

latest center pass radar.. wow.. amazing

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz

wow see out to sea we know going affect islands soon

floridasun, your guy setzer seemed very concerned on the 6 pm news..never seen him that tense

yes he was look worry that not good

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 050049
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 28 20170905
003930 1549N 05606W 7508 02519 0036 +130 +117 308034 035 031 006 00
004000 1548N 05607W 7499 02525 0039 +129 +119 306032 033 035 012 03
004030 1546N 05609W 7507 02521 0041 +127 +121 306032 034 034 015 00
004100 1545N 05610W 7499 02528 0035 +133 +114 305035 035 027 006 00
004130 1543N 05611W 7499 02529 0037 +135 +098 312034 035 026 003 00
004200 1541N 05612W 7498 02533 0042 +132 +099 311034 034 025 001 00
004230 1540N 05614W 7504 02531 0045 +131 +101 307033 034 025 001 00
004300 1538N 05615W 7498 02535 0044 +132 +101 307034 034 025 001 00
004330 1536N 05616W 7501 02535 0046 +133 +097 306033 033 025 001 00
004400 1535N 05617W 7501 02534 0046 +136 +094 311034 034 023 002 00
004430 1533N 05619W 7498 02540 0044 +138 +092 309033 034 023 001 00
004500 1532N 05620W 7500 02539 0045 +139 +091 311033 034 022 001 00
004530 1530N 05621W 7499 02542 0043 +144 +091 315033 035 025 002 00
004600 1528N 05623W 7502 02542 0044 +144 +096 317036 036 022 001 00
004630 1527N 05624W 7499 02544 0043 +145 +100 313035 036 022 001 00
004700 1525N 05625W 7499 02545 0045 +143 +103 314034 034 022 001 00
004730 1523N 05626W 7504 02542 0047 +141 +107 316034 035 021 001 03
004800 1521N 05625W 7498 02547 0050 +139 +100 310032 033 020 001 03
004830 1521N 05623W 7499 02546 0052 +139 +102 305033 034 022 001 03
004900 1521N 05621W 7499 02546 0045 +144 +096 307035 035 022 001 00

[Aric Dunn]

Look at this thing deepen.. CAT 5 by 5am advisory is not out of the question..

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/904676559671451648




NWS Tampa Bay ✔ @NWSTampaBay
#Irma may or may not affect Florida, but it's best to be prepared anyway. Here are a few things you need in your #hurricane kit! #flwx
8:04 AM - Sep 4, 2017

[Jelff]

Good news: This afternoon I finished producing a draft Florida evacuation map. That map, like the others I have posted here, is based on Google maps and can display 20+ overlay layers that display data hosted on a GIS (Geographical Information System) server operated by the State of Florida.

Bad news: Apparently that GIS server (part of floridadisaster.org) is getting so slammed with requests for data that it is on its knees begging for mercy. When I try to test various data overlays the data either never appears or only partially appears after several minutes.

Sure hope the server admins get this sorted out proto.

If this gets fixed the data overlay layers the map can show will include:
Traffic cameras
Shelters (state and federal)
Evacuation zones and status (several layers of data)
Evacuation routes
Digital billboards
State hwy crash
State hwy closed
State hwy incident
Rest area
Emergency medical service
Fire station
Hospital
Law enforcement
County map index
FL state twitter feed
Storm surge zones

[Nimbus]

wow see out to sea we know going affect islands soon

floridasun, your guy setzer seemed very concerned on the 6 pm news..never seen him that tense

yes he was look worry that not good

With the governors emergency declaration all the local Floridamets are under the gun to explain this.

[floridasun78]

this worst case for miami we not seen good cat 4long time remember that wilma came from gulf coast and andrew hit south dade so big time not sure how people will do when Andrew type hurr east of us or se

[arizona_sooner]

What do you mean by disregard persistence meteorology?

What I have seen sometimes is that the overall pattern can sometimes override smaller perturbations in the flow. Heat waves in the early 2010s simply shut down anything that attempted to intrude until the seasons changed. Cold patterns in the winter likewise. This year we have had a pretty persistent mild regime over the eastern CONUS for the last couple of months. Harvey snuck in the back door in Texas, but that was really expected. Nothing has come into the SE US this year other than from the north. That's why I have a feeling that Irma may just ride the wave and stay further south than predicted (i.e. Gilbert 1988, albeit more south). Again, having said that, I think I would be leaving south Florida for safer places (North Dakota) if the models don't change in the next day or two...

[jlauderdal]

floridasun, your guy setzer seemed very concerned on the 6 pm news..never seen him that tense

yes he was look worry that not good

With the governors emergency declaration all the local Florida local mets are under the gun to explain this.

an informed public is a good thing...people are taking this very seriously, good to see...if we get big effects people will be ready..two chances to avoid big effects, track and shredder

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Iram getting that classic buzz saw look, watch out Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

[otowntiger]

Latest video discussion from Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/904861082992463874

Excellent discussion tonight. Many many possible scenarios still at play. Nothing is locked in. The best case for the US/FL with that early sharp NE turn before getting into the Florida Straights out to sea would also be worst case scenario for the Bahamas. So right now it doesn't look like anyone escapes this storm.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050056
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 25 20170905
004700 1740N 05619W 6965 03139 0021 +101 +065 065057 058 036 001 00
004730 1739N 05618W 6970 03129 0015 +105 +065 065060 062 038 001 00
004800 1738N 05617W 6967 03134 //// +098 //// 062060 062 039 002 01
004830 1737N 05616W 6969 03132 //// +094 //// 061059 060 039 001 01
004900 1736N 05614W 6972 03125 0039 +091 +090 062060 062 038 007 00
004930 1735N 05613W 6974 03122 0029 +092 +084 059060 062 038 005 00
005000 1734N 05612W 6967 03129 0026 +092 +055 059065 066 039 001 00
005030 1733N 05611W 6970 03123 0030 +088 +055 059066 067 039 001 00
005100 1731N 05610W 6967 03126 0036 +081 +058 059065 065 039 002 00
005130 1730N 05609W 6970 03118 0033 +080 +060 059065 066 039 001 00
005200 1729N 05607W 6967 03121 0028 +083 +059 058066 067 039 000 00
005230 1728N 05606W 6968 03117 0021 +088 +057 058067 067 039 000 00
005300 1727N 05605W 6964 03117 0009 +093 +057 057070 071 041 000 03
005330 1726N 05604W 6964 03115 9999 +099 +056 055067 070 042 000 00
005400 1725N 05603W 6973 03104 9988 +107 +056 056067 067 044 001 00
005430 1724N 05602W 6967 03108 9984 +107 +056 056066 067 046 001 00
005500 1722N 05600W 6966 03108 9984 +106 +055 058068 070 045 000 00
005530 1721N 05559W 6971 03098 9980 +104 +057 060071 072 046 002 00
005600 1720N 05558W 6957 03109 9987 +094 +065 063074 077 049 004 00
005630 1719N 05557W 6963 03095 9993 +092 +089 064072 077 048 005 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Red color filling in around eye. She is really intensifying

[Blown Away]

How far N will the NHC need to shift that 5 day point? Upper Keys my guess.

[Ntxw]

yes he was look worry that not good

With the governors emergency declaration all the local Florida local mets are under the gun to explain this.

an informed public is a good thing...people are taking this very seriously, good to see...if we get big effects people will be ready..two chances to avoid big effects, track and shredder

Harvey is still fresh in people's minds. One misfortune for TX and LA may in this case get the nation, and people in the affected areas to take it seriously and prepare/leave. Harvey showed that people in the landfall point are not the only ones susceptible.

[RL3AO]

Windfield appears quite a bit larger than NHC's last advisory.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

Recon shows 70 to 80 kt FL winds up to 80 nm from the center in the NE and NW quadrants.