ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Hopefully my pre-season prediction is wrong about Irma!

[GCANE]

Kermit Vortex

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 21:57Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 21:40:44Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°41'N 54°35'W (16.6833N 54.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 416 statute miles (670 km) to the NE (54°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,615m (8,579ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSW (193°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 275° at 93kts (From the W at ~ 107.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the S/SSW (191°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the N (1°) from the flight level center at 21:45:54Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)

[CFLHurricane]

No. It's standard protocol in florida and activates state agencies to deal with the situation. It doesn't mean freak out or panic and it has nothing to with a potential high impact event. It happens even with a minimal ts.

Agree, however, the general public will only hear "state of emergency".

That's not a bad thing. Some people need that. This is Florida...

Floridaman and Floridawoman need all the help they can get

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042209
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 12 20170904
215930 1800N 05435W 6959 03155 0008 +120 +048 099067 067 037 002 00
220000 1802N 05435W 6961 03154 0008 +121 +045 098065 068 036 001 00
220030 1804N 05435W 6963 03154 0008 +123 +045 098061 062 035 002 00
220100 1806N 05435W 6958 03159 0006 +126 +040 100060 061 034 002 00
220130 1808N 05435W 6957 03165 0019 +118 +042 097058 059 035 001 00
220200 1810N 05435W 6960 03163 0022 +117 +047 096059 060 034 002 00
220230 1813N 05435W 6958 03168 0020 +122 +040 096060 060 035 001 00
220300 1815N 05435W 6958 03170 0025 +119 +042 098060 060 034 002 00
220330 1817N 05435W 6958 03171 0029 +117 +046 100060 060 034 002 00
220400 1819N 05435W 6959 03173 0028 +119 +048 099057 059 034 001 00
220430 1821N 05435W 6959 03175 0031 +119 +042 100057 057 033 001 00
220500 1823N 05435W 6958 03178 0034 +119 +044 099057 057 032 001 00
220530 1825N 05435W 6959 03178 0039 +116 +047 099057 058 031 002 00
220600 1828N 05435W 6958 03180 0043 +113 +047 100057 058 031 001 00
220630 1830N 05436W 6962 03175 0043 +114 +043 102061 061 032 001 03
220700 1830N 05438W 6959 03180 0044 +113 +046 101060 061 /// /// 03
220730 1829N 05441W 6958 03180 0043 +114 +045 099061 062 031 002 00
220800 1828N 05443W 6983 03151 0044 +114 +048 098059 059 034 001 00
220830 1827N 05445W 7063 03052 0040 +122 +050 097061 061 035 001 00
220900 1826N 05447W 7125 02978 0037 +129 +050 098062 062 034 002 00

[Aric Dunn]

Still some intermittant convection building with the remains of the inner eyewall.. until that stops it wont deepen very fast.. but its very close to clearing out now..

[Aric Dunn]

also it still has been moving slightly just south of west..

16.6833N 54.5833W

[Cunxi Huang]

115/943 seems reasonable.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042216
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 09 20170904
220700 1614N 05937W 4099 07403 0394 -145 -300 031016 017 /// /// 03
220730 1613N 05934W 4098 07406 0394 -145 -313 027017 018 /// /// 03
220800 1612N 05932W 4098 07406 0394 -145 -289 024017 018 /// /// 03
220830 1611N 05930W 4099 07406 0395 -145 -294 025017 018 /// /// 03
220900 1610N 05927W 4099 07406 0396 -145 -295 025018 018 /// /// 03
220930 1610N 05925W 4098 07408 0397 -145 -299 024018 018 /// /// 03
221000 1609N 05923W 4099 07407 0398 -145 -354 025018 018 /// /// 03
221030 1608N 05920W 4098 07410 0399 -145 -390 024018 019 /// /// 03
221100 1607N 05918W 4098 07410 0400 -145 -377 025019 019 /// /// 03
221130 1606N 05915W 4099 07409 0400 -141 -371 023019 020 /// /// 03
221200 1605N 05913W 4099 07409 0400 -141 -367 020020 021 /// /// 03
221230 1604N 05911W 4099 07412 0401 -141 -359 019020 021 /// /// 03
221300 1603N 05908W 4096 07416 0401 -145 -375 016020 021 /// /// 03
221330 1602N 05906W 4101 07407 0400 -142 -390 013019 020 /// /// 03
221400 1601N 05903W 4099 07409 0400 -145 -388 013019 020 /// /// 03
221430 1600N 05901W 4101 07409 0401 -144 -379 018020 021 /// /// 03
221500 1559N 05859W 4098 07413 0401 -141 -370 019021 021 /// /// 03
221530 1558N 05856W 4099 07410 0402 -140 -365 018021 022 /// /// 03
221600 1558N 05854W 4098 07413 0402 -140 -363 014021 021 /// /// 03
221630 1557N 05851W 4098 07413 0402 -140 -351 008020 020 /// /// 03
$$

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042219
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 13 20170904
220930 1824N 05450W 7197 02894 0035 +135 +052 098061 062 034 001 00
221000 1823N 05452W 7272 02805 0039 +135 +059 096061 061 034 001 00
221030 1822N 05454W 7334 02731 0036 +142 +065 093059 059 034 002 00
221100 1820N 05456W 7462 02585 0037 +147 +070 098059 060 037 001 00
221130 1819N 05458W 7513 02527 0039 +148 +076 098060 061 036 001 00
221200 1818N 05500W 7513 02525 0044 +142 +082 095058 059 037 001 00
221230 1817N 05502W 7513 02525 0041 +145 +081 094060 060 037 001 00
221300 1815N 05505W 7513 02524 0044 +141 +083 090059 059 037 001 00
221330 1814N 05507W 7513 02524 0042 +143 +084 089059 059 038 002 00
221400 1812N 05509W 7513 02525 0040 +145 +086 086058 059 037 002 00
221430 1811N 05511W 7514 02522 0039 +145 +084 086058 059 035 002 00
221500 1810N 05513W 7514 02521 0041 +141 +096 085058 059 035 001 00
221530 1808N 05515W 7513 02522 0042 +140 +098 083058 059 035 001 00
221600 1807N 05517W 7513 02523 0039 +143 +095 082058 059 035 002 00
221630 1805N 05519W 7513 02522 0037 +146 +085 083058 058 035 002 00
221700 1803N 05521W 7513 02521 0037 +145 +084 081057 057 036 001 00
221730 1801N 05522W 7514 02518 0036 +143 +088 080057 058 038 001 00
221800 1800N 05524W 7514 02517 0036 +143 +081 079059 060 036 002 00
221830 1758N 05526W 7513 02519 0035 +145 +082 080062 062 035 002 00
221900 1756N 05528W 7513 02519 0037 +142 +085 080062 062 035 002 00

[lando]

18z gfs may be the worst possible run I've ever seen in regards to potential loss of life and economic loss

[NDG]

130 knot flight level winds.

214600 1703N 05435W 6952 02924 9729 +122 //// 097128 130 097 044 01

Does it translate to less at the surface?

Yes, it at least confirms approximate 130 mph at the surface.

[eastcoastFL]

Agree, however, the general public will only hear "state of emergency".

That's not a bad thing. Some people need that. This is Florida...

Floridaman and Floridawoman need all the help they can get

Those two are exactly who I had in mind.

[Nimbus]

also it still has been moving slightly just south of west..

16.6833N 54.5833W

Might be the last time I get a chance to post, I'm giving up for a while if this tracks below 16.6N.

Hardcore Islanders like Luis should be looking at the wind fields for information.
Still only tropical force winds shown on the 18Z GFS (for Puerto Rico).

Irma is getting really big now with cat 2+ winds extending out almost 50 miles on the southwestern quadrant. Windspeed history maps are going to continue funneling wider till the storm strength stabilizes after that last eyewall replacement cycle.

[dizzyfish]

Good Evening all,

I applaud Gov Scott for his foresight in declaring the state of emergency. Florida is a very looooonnnngggg state and it takes quite a while to evacuate folks from as far south as Key West to remove them from what (hopefully) will be a safe place. I've had first-hand experience with price gouging at the gas pumps. Which is already up due to Harvey's wrath.

We are praying for everyone in the islands and beyond. Only the Lord knows what is in store for them or for us in Florida.

Bless us all!

[GCANE]

Latest radar from Kermit at CoC

[Patricia]

My brother and sister-in-law now live in near Melbourne. Anyone have any thoughts on that area? They just bought a house and live on a barrier island. Hanks.

[Sanibel]

GFS 18z just took out Miami with a strong category 5, possibly breaks the Okeechobee dyke, ran destruction up the entire east coast, and took out Orlando on the way out...If it verifies it will probably be the worst hurricane in Florida history, if not American history...

[lando]

My brother and sister-in-law now live in near Melbourne. Anyone have any thoughts on that area? They just bought a house and live on a barrier island. Hanks.

Nothing is set in stone, but the latest gfs run is scary and a possibility. Make sure they are aware of the storm and have plans to shutter up and evacuate if they are on a barrier island, better sooner than later, head to Atlanta or Alabama should these runs continue to show it going up the state as strong as it is showing

[O Town]

Agree, however, the general public will only hear "state of emergency".

That's not a bad thing. Some people need that. This is Florida...

Floridaman and Floridawoman need all the help they can get

[Michele B]

Good Evening all,

I applaud Gov Scott for his foresight in declaring the state of emergency. Florida is a very looooonnnngggg state and it takes quite a while to evacuate folks from as far south as Key West to remove them from what (hopefully) will be a safe place. I've had first-hand experience with price gouging at the gas pumps. Which is already up due to Harvey's wrath.

We are praying for everyone in the islands and beyond. Only the Lord knows what is in store for them or for us in Florida.

Bless us all!

Yeah, gas prices being what they are is a good reason to begin preps earlier rather than later.

That's what we did. Bought 20 gals of gas for generator late last week, when Irma was "born," and it only cost us $2.39. Now gas is up .20 from that!