ATL: JOSE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148542
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: JOSE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:35 am

Only model runs here.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148542
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:46 am

12z GFS does many loop movements with future Jose.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148542
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:09 pm

This is nor Irma is Jose doing this long range thing.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:11 pm

Makes a big loop before moving west too. Yeah I buy that GFS :roll:
1 likes   
Top
Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1128
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:10 pm

Yes, I watched this loop!

Not sure how to embed.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34 ... 44dd72.gif
2 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022, Milton - 2024
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148542
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:04 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31416
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:06 pm

As long as it avoids Irma's large outflow conditions look good enough to get a decent hurricane out of this, most models getting into the 970s/960s so a chance of a major cane out of this one as well.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148542
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:07 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148542
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:34 pm

00z GFS doing loops again.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1711
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby bob rulz » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:11 am

Do the loops involve interaction with Irma? That can cause some really strange movements.

Either way, I wouldn't buy models on this much at all yet. Just not enough of a center fix to get good initialization.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148542
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:49 am

Another cat 4 for this 2017 season.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1128
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby Michele B » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:23 pm

bob rulz wrote:Do the loops involve interaction with Irma? That can cause some really strange movements.

Either way, I wouldn't buy models on this much at all yet. Just not enough of a center fix to get good initialization.


No. It seems to have more to do with the two weather systems influencing Irma. The high press. ridge lifts out, the next trough moves in and pulls Irma northward and it lifts out, and then the hp ridge builds again, so Jose is stuck riding up down and around those two. I embedded a link with a clip of the model....above here about 5 posts.
1 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022, Milton - 2024
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10180
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:56 pm

Don't underestimate the range this season!

Image
0 likes   
Top
MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#14 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:45 pm

Really, GFS?

Image

They're gonna get cussed at if they're wrong about both Irma's and Jose's paths as well as Jose's pressure.
0 likes   
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10180
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:46 pm

Image

Image

Trend continues!!!

The pattern for this season isn't for weak ridges like the past 5-6 years.
0 likes   
Top
shaneomac
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:19 pm

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#16 Postby shaneomac » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:50 pm

Basically Jose will be lurking and seeing what his big sister will track , once he does he will meander then track somewhere but the question is where models are all over the place so far but most have a consenus close Atlantic Canada .. going to be fun to track .
0 likes   
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10180
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:59 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2535
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#18 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:51 am

Way off in fantasy land, but a piece of energy breaks off the trough and looks to pull Jose. Something to watch

Image
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#19 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:08 pm

Image

SW in the Euro.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2817
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:
Contact Hybridstorm_November2001

Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#20 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:50 pm

MatthewsRevenge wrote:Really, GFS?

Image

They're gonna get cussed at if they're wrong about both Irma's and Jose's paths as well as Jose's pressure.


Another cat 5, insane :double:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests