ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm_in_a_teacup]

She is completely insulated in moisture, wow.

"Irma used Aqua Veil!"

...Sorry, Pokémon reference. But I mean, insulating yourself in a veil of water straight up is something I would do if I had the water-moving power of a hurricane.

Its not something that every hurricane gets to do though.

Well it's something I will do once that magic amulet from
Trade Winds Fulfilment Services comes in the mail.

[RL3AO]

Is Stacey Stewart still there?

Yes. Although Stewart and Lixion Avila probably aren't too far away from retirement either.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/3HhZ3cZ.jpg
The 5pm Disco has Irma at 19N/61W in 5 days... This map represents all named systems that moved within 65 miles of this location...

The positive side of me is glad to see most have headed out to Sea. The realistic side of me says crap still decent odds for Florida.

Yeah, 3 day, 4 day and 5 day plots of storms like that have South FL and Eastern NC as the most hits. You can bet we're watching Irma. Classic CV Hurricane and September set up. It's all about that trough.

That trough appears to be dipping a bit far south for this time of year doesn't it?

[BYG Jacob]

I like the way NHC started their 5pm discussion ...

Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long.

Now that James Franklin is retired, maybe Eric Blake will the mantle for witty comments in the discussion.

Was he the one that slipped in a comment about the accuracy of the GFS?

[msbee]

Interesting graphic from NHC

[SouthFLTropics]

I like the way NHC started their 5pm discussion ...

Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long.

Now that James Franklin is retired, maybe Eric Blake will the mantle for witty comments in the discussion.

Was he the one that slipped in a comment about the accuracy of the GFS?

Off topic but since you brought it up...I sure miss Franklin's discussions. My favorite was when he did one on the storm Franklin and he said, "Franklin, the storm not the forecaster"

[jlauderdal]

there is a real dance going on here with landfall..dont focus just on the trough..that ridging has plenty to say about landfall and we will know in a few days how stout it really is and if the models have it nailed correctly, they have been known to underestimate and we sit here and watch these systems continue to drive westward..also, this things get to 4/5 it can pump up the ridge to...gulf looks a little less likely than say yesterday but they are not out of it, that said either is nova scotia and i would be real worried if i was in the bahama chain, they took a real pounding from matthew, i can listen to radio from freeport and flooding was a huge problem with that system

[KWT]

Back to having a really great presentation again, wouldn't be surprised if this does make a run at cat-4 tonight. Eye has become more pronounced since a couple of hours ago which is such a sign of a strengthening hurricane.

[Ntxw]

Aside from the potential dangers down the road, we should be getting some spectacular satellite fireworks from Irma. Structurally and visually she will look in the class of the Pacific storms so far this year.

[SunnyThoughts]

Shezabeauty, sure woulda been more fun watching her head north out into open water right about now though.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Aside from the potential dangers down the road, we should be getting some spectacular satellite fireworks from Irma. Structurally and visually she will look in the class of the Pacific storms so far this year.

http://i67.tinypic.com/2j4elgo.gif

A storm to imitate when I finally grow large enough to leave this teacup.

[Scorpion]

This looks at least 115 or 120 kt now. Would this be the furthest east Cat 4 in the satellite era?

[Yellow Evan]

I was gonna say this storm looked like one of those systems that are underestimated by Dvorak based on the eye definition but now the eye looks a little less defined.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I was gonna say this storm looked like one of those systems that are underestimated by Dvorak based on the eye definition but now the eye looks a little less defined.

Still looks very powerful through. Has got to be close to a 4.

[RL3AO]

Maybe some cirrus over the eye in the last frame. Looks like a T5.5 or T6.0 and the MPI is moving into Cat 4 range as the water gets warmer from here on out. I'd go with 110 or 115kt.

[South Texas Storms]

It's been a while since we've had back to back major hurricanes in the Atlantic. Will likely be 2 straight Category 4s. Really hope this one doesn't hit land. We don't need another natural disaster so soon after Harvey.

[1900hurricane]

Based on short term trends in eye temperature following eyewall replacement, I have a feeling that Irma has the possibility of reaching 115 kt approximately 114 hours earlier than the official forecast. Overall forecast philosophy looks sound though, and I like the idea of Irma maintaining a category 3 or lower end category 4 intensity for most of the next few days.

And immediately after I say this, the eye becomes obscured by a convective burst. Can't win them all. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[galaxy401]

This looks at least 115 or 120 kt now. Would this be the furthest east Cat 4 in the satellite era?

I believe Julia in 2010 was further east at Cat 4 intensity.

[Blinhart]

If you are talking whole life, I say 874mb, flt 205nph, sfmr 185mph

[hohnywx]

Going with 906 mb