ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

That would be a $200 billion + disaster. That seems an accurate estimate.

Well I don't doubt its destructiveness. 200 billion though you think? Katrina was the most costly ever recorded at 108 billion, and you estimate double?

Yes. New England and NY are MUCH more populated than Katrina's impact area.

Not to mention the abundance of old style, high up wooden homes in the area

[clambite]

This is more of a SC/NC storm like Hugo

Not really. Hugo bee-lined right into the east coast. If anything it's more like Floyd or Irene. Hugo was more like Fran and Isabel.

Hugo was forecasted to come up to NC... then took a left into Charleston. I was in Morehead City, listening to radio (before the weather channel) and I heard what was coming and I was scared to death !

[WilmingtonSandbar]

This is more of a SC/NC storm like Hugo

Not really. Hugo bee-lined right into the east coast. If anything it's more like Floyd or Irene. Hugo was more like Fran and Isabel.

Hugo was forecasted to come up to NC... then took a left into Charleston. I was in Morehead City, listening to radio (before the weather channel) and I heard what was coming and I was scared to death !

I remember Hugo well, also. It was my senior year of high school, and we were scheduled to take a college visit to The Citadel the next week. We were in Southport, NC and prepped for a strike when it turned west. Needless to say the trip to The Citadel was rescheduled.

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903386408869560320

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903357153582481410




Thankfully she's still in the medium/long range for the models, but wow.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903386408869560320

Don't take these values seriously. Further discussion on twitter shows that there is some weird corrections being made to the ensembles.

[meriland29]

The GFS supposes a cat 4/5 monster to hit NE. Not a single Cat 4 or 5 has ever been recorded to hit that area since we started naming storms...

[JPmia]

You mean this statement?

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903393252862304258

[storm4u]

Gfs was scary for us up here in ma...

[KWT]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903386408869560320

Don't take these values seriously. Further discussion on twitter shows that there is some weird corrections being made to the ensembles.

I was going to say, I've never seen ensemble members agree on cat-5 that far out. With that being said if it takes the track of the ECM, I'd not be all that surprised if those ensemble members aren't far off from the truth.

With that being said, every single ECM ensemble member I've seen so far have been such 960mbs, most have been in the 940s and 930s, so clearly plenty of cat-4s in there!

[curtadams]

The GFS supposes a cat 4/5 monster to hit NE. Not a single Cat 4 or 5 has ever been recorded to hit that area since we started naming storms...

I don't think there has ever been a cat 4+ in NE since Europeans came there, even before we started naming storms. The Great New England Hurricane was "only" a Cat 3. The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 *might* have been a 4, but obviously records are poor.

[KWT]

GFS ensembles have come in stronger this run.

Also many more obvious threats to the states, still most north of Florida but I'd say well over half of the members have good chance of making landfall on the US at 240hrs, with most bending NW, only a couple have an obvious recurve bend to the NE.

[hurricaneCW]

There is no way of knowing what will happen, it's a total guessing game right now. Great video by Levi explaining the situation and some possibilities right now.

It's been a while since we had a true long tracker like this including Matthew.

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS supposes a cat 4/5 monster to hit NE. Not a single Cat 4 or 5 has ever been recorded to hit that area since we started naming storms...

I don't think there has ever been a cat 4+ in NE since Europeans came there, even before we started naming storms. The Great New England Hurricane was "only" a Cat 3. The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 *might* have been a 4, but obviously records are poor.

Off Model Topic but interesting read on the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Col ... ne_of_1635

[tiger_deF]

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

[ftolmsteen]

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

I agree. Plenty of buoys in the northeast showing 70 degree temps. I can't see how it can maintain that intensity at that location.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

I agree. Plenty of buoys in the northeast showing 70 degree temps. I can't see how it can maintain that intensity at that location.

Baroclinic processes

[storm4u]

Water temps are above normal.. I dont know where you saw below... Forward speed also on the gfs not alot of time to weaken

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

[Steve]

It's probably fruitless to ask since I've been at this online since the mid 90s. It's been a long, long time since there was a threat of a major with a wide spread in possible landfalls. That inevitably leads to -removed- and model wars. Please consider that model x isn't better than model y because it's closer to you. There are long time posters that I'm not going to name who almost never miss the opportunity to wishcast based on the models that show a storm coming to them. Many of them would argue for the Clipper model if it showed it going near to them. Models hitting anything over 10 days out are rare. The GFS being one of them is rarer. Please consider that probably at least a few hundred people or more will read your post. For instance, if you are in Louisiana, try to consider why the North Carolina or Florida model may be right. Hundreds of people thank you in advance.

[Bocadude85]

It really will be interesting to see which model is correct, the GFS has been just as consistent as the Euro with Irma missing the Caribbean to the north. I'm leaning towards Irma missing Florida to the east but I can't get this feeling out of my mind that Irma could end the major hurricane drought in S.Fla.