ATL: IRMA - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Why don't we focus on the 18z run now ...

Love that , I hope it verifies. I also hope Bermuda stays safe.

[SouthFLTropics]

Further South at 24 Hours

[jlauderdal]

There aint no point arguing which of the two are right over 10 days out...

Yes there is, its a discission forum and we are great at arguing

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[BYG Jacob]

In a recent tweet, Met. Joe Bastardi noted he is staying with the Euro. He also said that the GFS might score a coup but he doubts it.

Can you remember the last time the GFS scored a meaningful "coup"? I didn't think so. Neither can I.

Gfs was actually better with Matthew than euro, maybe not a coup...when gfs can get the first 24h of Irma correct I will give it more weight

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Think that was more of a broken clock moment and they happened to be fortunate enough the trough was that strong.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

ECMWF control run:



Source: weather.us

how awful

[RL3AO]

This is usually the busiest part of the day in the model thread. With the 18z GFS coming in, please remember that posts should be of some use. Either posting a model image, making a substantive comment (e.g. something beyond 126 hrs moving wsw), or asking/answering a question.
Posts can and will be deleted without warning if they don't meet those criteria.

[KWT]

ECM control is indeed very similar to Floyd in the way it arches up into the Carolinas. Looks very similar to the 12z CMC track which is about to bend up to the NW through to 240hrs.

Anyway 18z GFS rolling out, gets it upto 18.2N which is pretty much where the NHC gets it up to so this seems reasonable so far.

[RL3AO]

GFS continues the slow correction southward in the near term as it has been over doing the wnw motion.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS initialized Irma well but also indicates weakening within the next 2-days.

[SouthFLTropics]

SE of 12z at 54 Hours

[meriland29]

What is going on with this super SW treck?

[RL3AO]

GFS vs Euro at day 2



No big differences yet.

[RL3AO]

Euro vs GFS day 3 - Euro a little faster.

[KWT]

The other thing I've noticed between the current GFS run and the runs from say yesterday is the upper low feature decays a little faster now, closer to being inline with the ECM.

As has been said, out to 42hrs both the ECM and the GFS are pretty much in line with each other. Its around 96-120hrs where the big divergence begins, so that matter IS going to get resolved sooner rather than later and then we can have more confidence on a threat level to the states/Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

Upper low trending weaker in the GFS.

[sma10]

The biggest difference appears to be forward motion. The GFS is consistently slower than Euro. You can see this happening again on the 18Z starting in the 48-72 hr period. I guess thats something to watch this weekend.

[meriland29]

[RL3AO]

Euro vs GFS Day 4

Euro still faster. Biggest synoptic difference is west of Ireland.

[KWT]

The biggest difference appears to be forward motion. The GFS is consistently slower than Euro. You can see this happening again on the 18Z starting in the 48-72 hr period. I guess thats something to watch this weekend.

Yes that is interesting to see and its borne out in the ensemble as well, suggests the ECM has a stronger ridge and thus airflow round the southern side of the ridge. I suspect given what we have observed over the last 24hrs the idea of the stronger ridge seems more realistic.

[SFLcane]

Upper low is gone on the GFS..