ATL: IRMA - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1421 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:45 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1422 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:46 pm

That's a heck of a storm.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1423 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:47 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Should head for South FL then over into the eastern Gulf.


Depends on what the ridge does. If it builds farther west as the 00Z did, it could work its way back to the NW Gulf. It doesn't go out that far though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1424 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:47 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:The Euro's path for Irma through the islands reminds me a lot of Luis in 1995.

Yeah! Right on that! Not a good news for Guadeloupe Antigua Barbuda and especially the Northern Leewards that was a nightmare. :( :oops:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1425 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:47 pm

Also the Euro has Irma with 145 KT winds at hour 180
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1426 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:48 pm

12z GFS vs Euro at 192 hrs... Forward speed/Timing biggest difference... GFS @27N/66W - Euro @21N/72W
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1427 Postby nativefloridian » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:49 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z GFS vs Euro at 192 hrs... Timing biggest difference... GFS @27N/66W - Euro @21N/72W


Six degrees of separation
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1428 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:49 pm

Gusts by 144hrs is around 140mph through the Leeward islands on the 12z ECM!

Anyway amazing 12z ECM and quite possible the worst case track possible, it maybe still close enough for Hispaniola to disrupt it
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1429 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:50 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1430 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:50 pm

12Z Euro 216 hours:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1431 Postby Langinbang187 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:51 pm

Long range Euro buries it into Cuba lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1432 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:51 pm

KWT wrote:Gusts by 144hrs is around 140mph through the Leeward islands on the 12z ECM!

Anyway amazing 12z ECM and quite possible the worst case track possible, it maybe still close enough for Hispaniola to disrupt it

147mph gusts as it heads into the Leewards IF ECMWF is correct: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/64 ... 1200z.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1433 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:51 pm

forecasterjack wrote:That's a heck of a storm.


You've got that right, also it appears to be growing into quite a large storm by this point as well, something the GFS/CMC/Euro all agree on.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1434 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:51 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1435 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro 216 hours:

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That run looks like its gonna be eerily close to me down in Dade! might skirt through the straights
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1436 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:52 pm

Ridge is backing north at 216hrs should make a turn more NW by 240hr
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1437 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:52 pm

938mb at 216. EURO at 500mb also shows High Pressure moving into Newfoundland by 216, but the very high heights off the NC and VA Coast are breaking down a little. That could allow for a bit of a NW turn coming up.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1438 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:53 pm

Through the straits and into the gulf? Can't even imagine.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1439 Postby Langinbang187 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:53 pm

One of the GFS/Euro is going to come away from this looking really, really bad.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1440 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:53 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
forecasterjack wrote:That's a heck of a storm.


You've got that right, also it appears to be growing into quite a large storm by this point as well, something the GFS/CMC/Euro all agree on.

By that time, we'll probably have enjoyed several EWRC's to broaden the wind field.
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