ATL: IRMA - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1401 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:36 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1402 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:37 pm

Blown Away wrote:Euro through 144, HP looks a bit weaker, I'm betting we see a WNW to NW track through 240 hrs...


Yeah agreed, we are slowly seeing the models narrowing into each other, the GFS is moving slowly south and the ECM is going slightly north on this run.

Probably a Florida hit with this run, upper high is still strong enough to keep it chugging along.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1403 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:37 pm

12Z Euro 168 hours:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:38 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1404 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:37 pm

Ouch at 144 right over you Luis..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1405 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:38 pm

This would be devastating for the islands
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1406 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:39 pm

@tolakram, the ridge is stronger and the trough is further west!!


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1407 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:Euro through 144, HP looks a bit weaker, I'm betting we see a WNW to NW track through 240 hrs...


That is far from certain... looks like HP building as trough retrogrades West
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1408 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro 168 hours:

Image


You can see the trough is cutting off and lifting to the North. This isn't going to end well for the peninsula.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1409 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:40 pm

ECM down to 937mbs by 150hrs in and raking the NE Caribbean. Very worrying situation for the Ne Caribbean and gotta hope the GFS is onto something with its early climb otherwise we are going to have a monster rolling on through the islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1410 Postby shawn6304 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:41 pm

That is about the last place we want that storm correct , just north of the mountains?

Also is that "jose" back in the picture?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1411 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:41 pm

Image
HP does look stronger at 168 hrs...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1412 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:41 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro 168 hours:

Image


You can see the trough is cutting off and lifting to the North. This isn't going to end well for the peninsula.

It will either bury it into Cuba or pull it up into us.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1413 Postby forecasterjack » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:42 pm

ECMWF moves Irma N of Hispaniola with no opportunity for the island's mountains to shred the circulation.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1414 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:43 pm

12Z Euro 192 hours. This does not look good. That is quite a ridge. :eek:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1415 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:43 pm

The Euro's path for Irma through the islands reminds me a lot of Luis in 1995.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1416 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:44 pm

Eastern Gulf, ridge building back.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1417 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:44 pm

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Uh oh!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1418 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:44 pm

192 hours puts it almost exactly in the same position as yesterdays 12z run at the same hour.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1419 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:45 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1420 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:45 pm

Should head for South FL then over into the eastern Gulf.
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