ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

I think we've bugged Frank enough for now.

[KWT]

Both the 12z GFS and the CMC are inching their way towards the ECM output. Indeed I think in terms of track the 12z CMC is probably not a bad call and something of a middle ground.

GFS still wants to lift this out to the NW, but given the model has a rather nasty habit of overdoing troughing and breaking down ridges (already the troughing is not as strong as yesterday over the NE states, that 564 dam line inching northwards each run.)

[KWT]

Still a long ways out, but the GFS might have the right idea. Troughs have saved the US East Coast a lot recently. ECMWF should come around to this solution eventually in my opinion.

I'd like to see the GFS get the motion of Irma right in 12 hours before I start buying into it getting day 10 right.

I've been closely following that for the last 24hrs, its constantly been south of where the models have been expecting it. I suspect the upper high is stronger than the models factored, this won't be the first time in the MDR that the models have underdone such a high...

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is a full degree further South than the 06z run

[BensonTCwatcher]

Still a long ways out, but the GFS might have the right idea. Troughs have saved the US East Coast a lot recently. ECMWF should come around to this solution eventually in my opinion.

I'd like to see the GFS get the motion of Irma right in 12 hours before I start buying into it getting day 10 right.

This is maybe the most relevant point in even looking in detail at the GFS these days. upper air patterns, and major synoptic features 10 days out, but storm track and intensity....I think I'll pass as well.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles are back to showing a cluster of ensembles turning this west east of Bahamas towards FL/SE Coast of US:

[jlauderdal]

I think we've bugged Frank enough for now.

the gfs feels the same way as frank...

[KWT]

HWRF really is digging down on this run, around 15.5N, 15.5N ad 50W the odds of landfalling system really increase, especially fr the NE Caribbean but also for the states.

Ignore the fact that it is at 17N roughly now, the WSW dive will destroy all the latitude it has/will gain over the next 2 days.

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS ensembles are back to showing a cluster of ensembles turning this west east of Bahamas towards FL/SE Coast of US:

Can you post previous ensembles for comparison?

[jlauderdal]

HWRF really is digging down on this run, around 15.5N, 15.5N ad 50W the odds of landfalling system really increase, especially fr the NE Caribbean but also for the states.

Ignore the fact that it is at 17N roughly now, the WSW dive will destroy all the latitude it has/will gain over the next 2 days.

exactly, we have to look at this system differently than most and I wouldn't be surprised to see that dip become even more pronounced over time as the ridging is getting stronger in the modeling....the lesser antilles will need to be on full alert too

[SouthFLTropics]

15N and 50W at 99 Hours on the HWRF

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles are back to showing a cluster of ensembles turning this west east of Bahamas towards FL/SE Coast of US:

Can you post previous ensembles for comparison?

06Z GEFS:

[Stormcenter]

I mean really can you trust the timing of a trough in early Sept. this far out? I would not. We have a long way to go here. Any future
path is on the table and will be for a long time. IMO

[KWT]

15N and 50W at 99 Hours on the HWRF

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11L_34.png

Way south on the HWRF, its slowly been dropping latitude from run to run.

Also worryingly there is no quick WNW turn once it does bottom it out like on the operational GFS and the HMON. Looks closer to the ECM thus far!

[gatorcane]

The much anticipated ECMWF run has initialized:

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok...Here comes the Euro

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF is running. While I still wouldn't put too much stock into deterministic models this far out, it will be fun to watch for sure. Link to full res guidance: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Let me know if y'all have any questions about that site

[meriland29]

thank goodness, Euro...

[cycloneye]

Only 1007 mbs in iniciation of Euro?

[forecasterjack]

Only 1007 mbs in iniciation of Euro?

Coarse global model resolution, but still. Bad. Now where are my ensembles