ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

[Steve]

Not sure about the synoptic setup but in a way, at least per ECMWF, it's a little reminiscent of the burst in 1998 where Frances is Harvey off/near the coast of Brownsville; Bay of Campeche low if it comes up is Hermine; the Irma ends up being +/-Georges regardless of whether it heads for the Gulf, East Coast or recurves.

[floridasun78]

so now showing weakness in high so only gfs showing weakness?

[meriland29]

[Blown Away]

Still no sharp recurve, tells me that trough is not strong enough to blast Irma OTS, but there is a fine line between heading W or OTS...

[SFLcane]

Euro will probably come around next few runs this hurricane isn't gonna close to the SE with that trof there

[hohnywx]

Will have to be a significant shift in the upper air pattern to bring Irma to landfall on the east coast. 240 hour forecasts are a joke, but the general positioning of the upper level features would seem to favor a curve.

Except the GFS is showing landfall (And has for the past few runs)...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Again?

[Blown Away]

Just a ballpark idea @240 hours...

[Bocadude85]

Well if the GFS ends up being correct and Irma misses the Caribbean to the north then that would be a pretty big bust for the Euro in the midrange.

[Hurricaneman]

Just a ballpark idea @240 hours...

Either the GFS is wonky or all the other models are and based on things I would say the GFS is wonky

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Again?

It weakens a tremendous amount between Bermuda and the landfall in Nova Scotia, which seems a tad suspicious. Otherwise, my main thought is this run is a disaster for poor Bermuda.

[Bocadude85]

Euro will probably come around next few runs this hurricane isn't gonna close to the SE with that trof there

That would be a big win for the GFS. We will know soon enough with the 12z run in about an hour.

[Langinbang187]

Again?

It weakens a tremendous amount between Bermuda and the landfall in Nova Scotia, which seems a tad suspicious. Otherwise, my main thought is this run is a disaster for poor Bermuda.

Yea that is genuinely some of the most rapid weakening I've ever seen with a major hurricane.

[meriland29]

384, Jose...hmmm

[hohnywx]

Again?

It weakens a tremendous amount between Bermuda and the landfall in Nova Scotia, which seems a tad suspicious. Otherwise, my main thought is this run is a disaster for poor Bermuda.

This is what happens after truncation of the GFS (>240). This is normal and to be expected.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well if the GFS ends up being correct and Irma misses the Caribbean to the north then that would be a pretty big bust for the Euro in the midrange.

That would be more than a bust by the Euro. It would be a straight up Coup for the GFS. More often than not the Euro is more correct than the GFS. At this time I think the key threat to the CONUS if there is one is Florida to the Carolinas. I think the Euro was too far South on the 00z and the GFS is too far NE on the 12z. You put it in the middle and you end up with Savannah, Georgia give or take a few miles. Floyd has been my analog all along.

[Blown Away]

@300 mile SW shift with 12z CMC/GEM... Moving N at 240 hrs..

[sma10]

Will have to be a significant shift in the upper air pattern to bring Irma to landfall on the east coast. 240 hour forecasts are a joke, but the general positioning of the upper level features would seem to favor a curve.

Correct ... if you believe the GFS. The Euro depicted a completely different pattern with its last run.

[txwatcher91]

At this range it's best to take a blend of the GFS/Euro, weighted heavy to the Euro, for track. Euro is likely a bit too far south and GFS too far north, meet in the middle and you get a storm heading for the Bahamas area. Outside of that it will depend on timing of the trough, the ridge strength, etc and that is impossible to pin down this far out.