ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

162 hours...No Gulf TS either.

[nativefloridian]

144 Hours and look at the massive amount of ridging in place. If the GFS decides to plow Irma right into that ridge I'm going to quit posting because I just can't fathom that actually happening. It goes against the laws of physics.

Very stout ridging and the GFS SLOWLY is moving S and W from earlier runs

I'm thinking the west nudge will come in the next couple frames. We'll see.......

[meriland29]

Kinda interested to see what happens with Jose this run too..

[SouthFLTropics]

144 Hours and look at the massive amount of ridging in place. If the GFS decides to plow Irma right into that ridge I'm going to quit posting because I just can't fathom that actually happening. It goes against the laws of physics.

Very stout ridging and the GFS SLOWLY is moving S and W from earlier runs

I'm thinking the west nudge will come in the next couple frames. We'll see.......

That should happen if the trough starts to lift out...all about timing here.

[Blown Away]

It's going to recurve away from Fl but maybe not mid Atlantic...

[Siker]

12z UKMET is insanely strong. I have never seen pressures anywhere CLOSE to this on this product. That's a Cat 5.

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2017 0 16.6N 33.3W 988 50
0000UTC 01.09.2017 12 17.8N 35.6W 980 60
1200UTC 01.09.2017 24 18.7N 37.7W 974 67
0000UTC 02.09.2017 36 19.3N 40.1W 969 71
1200UTC 02.09.2017 48 19.3N 42.7W 967 70
0000UTC 03.09.2017 60 19.1N 45.0W 969 69
1200UTC 03.09.2017 72 18.8N 47.2W 964 75
0000UTC 04.09.2017 84 18.3N 49.2W 956 76
1200UTC 04.09.2017 96 17.8N 51.3W 959 72
0000UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.7N 53.4W 956 73
1200UTC 05.09.2017 120 17.8N 55.6W 952 75
0000UTC 06.09.2017 132 18.5N 57.8W 943 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 144 19.5N 60.3W 934 85

[meriland29]

180

[Langinbang187]

Look @ little brother Jose trucking along behind. Adorable.

[meriland29]

186

[SouthFLTropics]

Should be noted that this is the weakest the trough has looked over the past several runs of the GFS.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian shifts way south into southern Bahamas moving WNW


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[meriland29]

To give you guys a idea of how large Irma is...

This is Harvey at his peak...



This is Irma...

[Blown Away]

Life changing storm if it landfalled at that intensity...

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC should begin to turn northward in response to the trough...

[BensonTCwatcher]

The weak trough is strong enough to lift it out. Bermuda hit though. Big difference in this run:

1. No Gulf low
2. No Cut off low
3. Maybe the trough is overdone- want to see next euro- but seems plausible

[meriland29]

198

[weathaguyry]

Sub- 900 at 204 hours

[Raebie]

What is that blue blob over the Carolinas at 186?

[meriland29]

204

[Nimbus]

12z UKMET is insanely strong. I have never seen pressures anywhere CLOSE to this on this product. That's a Cat 5.

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2017 0 16.6N 33.3W 988 50
0000UTC 01.09.2017 12 17.8N 35.6W 980 60
1200UTC 01.09.2017 24 18.7N 37.7W 974 67
0000UTC 02.09.2017 36 19.3N 40.1W 969 71
1200UTC 02.09.2017 48 19.3N 42.7W 967 70
0000UTC 03.09.2017 60 19.1N 45.0W 969 69
1200UTC 03.09.2017 72 18.8N 47.2W 964 75
0000UTC 04.09.2017 84 18.3N 49.2W 956 76
1200UTC 04.09.2017 96 17.8N 51.3W 959 72
0000UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.7N 53.4W 956 73
1200UTC 05.09.2017 120 17.8N 55.6W 952 75
0000UTC 06.09.2017 132 18.5N 57.8W 943 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 144 19.5N 60.3W 934 85

Moving WNW near Puerto Rico maybe a weakness in the ridge?