ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Very tight and compact core:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/GNHqdHF.gif[/mg]

Flattening/sharpening of the outflow to the NW suggests some shear and dry air is still air. So I wouldn't be surprised to see an EWRC initiate quicker than normal.

This looks like a compact Andrew-esque buzzsaw in the making

Hopefully a combination of an EWRC + dry air + cooler SSTs will combine to do a number on it and the GFS/Euro major forecasts do not verify.

Dry air is rarely a factor in a well-established hurricane in a low shear environment. The EWRC will probably happen fairly soon though and the cooler SST's will probably slow it down a good bit. I don't see it strengthening as slowly as the NHC indicates though, a cat 3 or 4 this afternoon/evening is fairly likely, assuming an EWRC doesn't start.

[psyclone]

Well this escalated quickly. The magic of peak season...quality storms fast. We're in the thick of it now.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree we are in the peak of the season. Next days will be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

This looks like a compact Andrew-esque buzzsaw in the making

Hopefully a combination of an EWRC + dry air + cooler SSTs will combine to do a number on it and the GFS/Euro major forecasts do not verify.

Dry air is rarely a factor in a well-established hurricane in a low shear environment. The EWRC will probably happen fairly soon though and the cooler SST's will probably slow it down a good bit. I don't see it strengthening as slowly as the NHC indicates though, a cat 3 or 4 this afternoon/evening is fairly likely, assuming an EWRC doesn't start.

Dry air starts to become a problem when the storm starts to EWRC. The storm may become stuck in an infinite EWRC loop since the expanding eyewall never gets to complete and become the dominate one - until it clears the dry air. See Fernanda earlier this season and Wilma 2005 after it peaked.

[TheStormExpert]

Forecast track progression since 11pm last night.

[bg1]

Has there ever been a storm to just skip Cat 1 status?

[jlauderdal]

Very tight and compact core:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/GNHqdHF.gif[/mg]

Flattening/sharpening of the outflow to the NW suggests some shear and dry air is still air. So I wouldn't be surprised to see an EWRC initiate quicker than normal.

This looks like a compact Andrew-esque buzzsaw in the making

Hopefully a combination of an EWRC + dry air + cooler SSTs will combine to do a number on it and the GFS/Euro major forecasts do not verify.

ssts warm in a few days, shear remains light...be hopeful it comes in as only a cat 2 next week..that would be fortunate at this point

[Kingarabian]

Forecast track progression since 11pm last night.

[img]https://gifyu.com/images/output_YTvv6Q.gif[/ig]

Disturbing trend. Hopefully the folks in PR and the Caribbean islands saw what happened with Harvey and its aftermath and are preparing for the worst.

[txwatcher91]

Hopefully a combination of an EWRC + dry air + cooler SSTs will combine to do a number on it and the GFS/Euro major forecasts do not verify.

Dry air is rarely a factor in a well-established hurricane in a low shear environment. The EWRC will probably happen fairly soon though and the cooler SST's will probably slow it down a good bit. I don't see it strengthening as slowly as the NHC indicates though, a cat 3 or 4 this afternoon/evening is fairly likely, assuming an EWRC doesn't start.

Dry air starts to become a problem when the storm starts to EWRC. The storm may become stuck in an infinite EWRC loop since the expanding eyewall never gets to complete and become the dominate one - until it clears the dry air. See Fernanda earlier this season and Wilma 2005 after it peaked.

It can become a problem in certain instances, especially combined with shear as in Wilma, but usually dry air affecting a well-established cane is pretty rare. Usually shear is a bigger factor during an EWRC from my experience and why I don't think Irma will slow down much when the EWRC starts.

[SouthFLTropics]

Forecast track continues to accelerate over the past few advisories. Not surprised about that. Small things now have HUGE implications down the road regarding possible impacts to the islands and the CONUS.

[meriland29]

She is booking it, makes me both concerned and interested cause, well, she is really ramping up really early, should that implicate that more likely than not, she will peter out before reaching the US (if she ends up there)

[Ntxw]

Already eye is well formed. Should be a major soon

[ronjon]

Hoping we don't see a repeat of 1960 here. A very dangerous major hurricane setup for the US and Antilles.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1960/Major-Hurricane-Donna

[Kingarabian]

Dry air is rarely a factor in a well-established hurricane in a low shear environment. The EWRC will probably happen fairly soon though and the cooler SST's will probably slow it down a good bit. I don't see it strengthening as slowly as the NHC indicates though, a cat 3 or 4 this afternoon/evening is fairly likely, assuming an EWRC doesn't start.

Dry air starts to become a problem when the storm starts to EWRC. The storm may become stuck in an infinite EWRC loop since the expanding eyewall never gets to complete and become the dominate one - until it clears the dry air. See Fernanda earlier this season and Wilma 2005 after it peaked.

It can become a problem in certain instances, especially combined with shear as in Wilma, but usually dry air affecting a well-established cane is pretty rare. Usually shear is a bigger factor during an EWRC from my experience and why I don't think Irma will slow down much when the EWRC starts.

Good points, we'll see what happens.

[Kingarabian]

Already eye is well formed. Should be a major soon

[img]https://i.imgbox.com/EebGh9Ey.gif[/ig]

Yeah. A TC under a strong ridge blowing up. Underrated setup.

[ronjon]

She is booking it, makes me both concerned and interested cause, well, she is really ramping up really early, should that implicate that more likely than not, she will peter out before reaching the US (if she ends up there)

Umm...No. Historically storms like this don't "peter out" - they maintain their strength or get stronger. Additionally no model is showing any substantial weakening (other than land interaction).

[Janie2006]

Wow. TS to Cat 2 overnight. Well, all the indications were there.

[Sanibel]

Haven't had a year like this in a while...We'll see if the rule of thumb about being in the cone far out means it will shift by the time it gets there holds true...

[marionstorm]

This is terrible I don't want to be anxious for over a week wondering if a major hurricane is coming to Florida or not.

[Aric Dunn]

So who wants to call SSD and have them switch the floater ?