ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/903246174034984960

Really not liking that Analog... though Irma is forecast to do that same WSW drop.

I think the other odd part about that track is the last half looks identical to Andrew...

[KWT]

I've seen storms strengthen to unbelievable numbers way out to sea, and then weaken before getting close to the US mainland.

Would this one be inclined to do the same thing, I wonder?

At this range its just about impossible to know, most models are suggesting a pretty good set-up aloft the whole way through its lifecycle so odds are its going to be in the range of a major hurricane for quite a long time with only internal stuff and land interaction possibly knocking it down.

[TheStormExpert]

Size / intensity remind me of our last major in the MDR, Danny. Danny's small eye continued to clear out, bringing him near category 4 status. Of course, he was ripped apart by shear shortly after, which Irma should have no issues with.

Unfortunately environmental conditions look a HUGE deal more favorable than they did for Danny in 2015 thanks to the absence of an El Niño. If it wasn't for that Caribbean shear you typically get in an El Niño Danny likely would've been a major hurricane threat to the U.S. that year.

[KWT]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/903246174034984960

The only difference is this is quite abit further north than this system, other then that the track is certainly one of the closer of the models.

Isabel and Ike both show us that even if this does end up curving to the NW like the GFS ensembles expect it could still be a threat to the states.

[Aric Dunn]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/903246174034984960

The only difference is this is quite abit further north than this system, other then that the track is certainly one of the closer of the models.

Isabel and Ike both show us that even if this does end up curving to the NW like the GFS ensembles expect it could still be a threat to the states.

dont forget hugo !

[RL3AO]

Raw ADT values jumping up very quickly now. Irma could easily be a major by tonight.

[Orlando]

Small core tiny pinhole eye well established CDO and outflow.. they are going to very likely sorely under estiamte the strength of it. They will follow their forecast irregardless.

Its got a great looking set-up, and the system is looking impressive at the moment with that small core and eye peaking through occasionally as well.

I suspect the next NHC forecast will show a peak of 115kts this time, I'm still thinking a cat-5 is possible out of this, only internal restructuring will probably stop that from happening.

Eye warming quite rapidly now. wont be long until we have a solid donut and major on our hands if this keeps up over the next 8 to 12 hours.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... Jd4tAF.jpg

Aric, please stay with up on this one. I would feel lost without you.
The NHC would be blessed to have you aboard their ship. You are the best!

[SouthDadeFish]

Raw ADT values jumping up very quickly now. Irma could easily be a major by tonight.

Irma might surpass Harvey's intensification rate if this keeps up. I just wonder how long it can keep it up with these SSTs. Raw ADT will probably shoot up to cat 4 soon though.

[KWT]

Raw ADT values jumping up very quickly now. Irma could easily be a major by tonight.

I can't say I'm surprise, it already looks like a solid cat-2 at the moment to me, especially in the last couple of hours with the eye popping out on all satellite channels. Looks better formed than Harvey was at a similar stage (not saying its going to get to that strength, but just to give an idea).

Strongest hurricane east of 40W was Julia in 2010, got to 140mph/948mbs. That could well be challenged...

[SouthDadeFish]

ADT is missing the eye. Otherwise values would likely be even higher.

[txwatcher91]

Raw ADT values jumping up very quickly now. Irma could easily be a major by tonight.

Irma might surpass Harvey's intensification rate if this keeps up. I just wonder how long it can keep it up with these SSTs. Raw ADT will probably shoot up to cat 4 soon though.

Wouldn't be surprised at all. With such favorable UL winds and classic structure, the only thing holding this back short term is the SST's and any eyewall replacement cycles it may go through. This is probably a 95-100mph storm right now.

[AdamFirst]

Any G-IV atmospheric mission planned anytime soon?

This is going to be one of them situations where that is imperative for future model runs.

[SouthDadeFish]

The eye is clear on visible. The core of the TC is quite small at this time.

[terstorm1012]

My local NWS Office (State College) had this in its discussion this morning:

For later Tue into Wed, have some chc POPS, given that the
secondary cold front is to the west early, then the front may
stall out, given southwest flow aloft, as 594 heights off the
coast. Similar to 2011, with the upper level ridge off the
coast, so have to watch systems coming out of the tropics.

They typically don't mention the tropics at all--I mean I think it wasn't until the Thursday before Sandy that they acknowledged the storm and its potential at all, so I consider this kind of significant.

DO NOT WANT!

(Irene wasn't terrible for us, it was the one-two punch of Irene and Lee that was bad, and it's been a wet summer here.)
I realize it's over a week off but I'm watching this one keenly, and hoping it misses the islands and Bermuda and the US and the Bahamas.

[RL3AO]

ADT is missing the eye. Otherwise values would likely be even higher.

It's almost black with a DG eye already which is 5.5.

[KWT]

The eye is clear on visible. The core of the TC is quite small at this time.

http://i.imgur.com/k2ouxZZ.gif

Got a very organised core, and the eye really has cleared out rapidly, I wonder jsut how high the NHC will go in terms of intensity down the line, they've gotta go 115kts at least IMO based on current trend and organising. Nearly got a eye ringed by intense convection, something Harvey struggled with till it was a major hurricane.

[HurricaneBelle]

FWIW no mention of Irma by Tampa, Melbourne, Miami, or Key West NWS - yet. Miami NWS expects a cold front to push through the area later next week.

They only go out 7 days on AFDs. Irma is 10-12 days away from potential impacts.

[Exalt]

The eye is clear on visible. The core of the TC is quite small at this time.

http://i.imgur.com/k2ouxZZ.gif

Got a very organised core, and the eye really has cleared out rapidly, I wonder jsut how high the NHC will go in terms of intensity down the line, they've gotta go 115kts at least IMO based on current trend and organising. Nearly got a eye ringed by intense convection, something Harvey struggled with till it was a major hurricane.

And there's nothing to stop it from strengthening at all besides any internal structural issues. This thing could and probably will strengthen all the way across the Atlantic..

[Blown Away]

Map of CONUS hurricanes that were within 65 miles of the NHC's 5am 5 day position (16.0N/53.5W).

This is the ultimate who's who list...

[Kingarabian]

The eye is clear on visible. The core of the TC is quite small at this time.

http://i.imgur.com/k2ouxZZ.gif

Got a very organised core, and the eye really has cleared out rapidly, I wonder jsut how high the NHC will go in terms of intensity down the line, they've gotta go 115kts at least IMO based on current trend and organising. Nearly got a eye ringed by intense convection, something Harvey struggled with till it was a major hurricane.

Gonna be some wind and pressure lag as we've learned from Harvey. Could see the NHC stick with their forecast and keep this a cat.2 for a bit longer.