ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[latitude_20]

Good morning all,

I live in a small community about 7 miles north of Tulum on the Yucatan Caribbean coast. Looking at the trending and potential for Irma to go further south, I'm starting a checklist to top off preps just in case.

One question I have is whether or not to stay or evacuate if this makes landfall as a cat 4/5. All of the structures around here, including our house, are generally built to withstand hurricane-strength winds (concrete block construction). This neighborhood was built after the last major hurricane came through here, so it's never been through the hurricane test. I'm inclined to stay and ride it out should it come to that, just interested in what your thoughts are.

[KWT]

Small core tiny pinhole eye well established CDO and outflow.. they are going to very likely sorely under estiamte the strength of it. They will follow their forecast irregardless.

Its got a great looking set-up, and the system is looking impressive at the moment with that small core and eye peaking through occasionally as well.

I suspect the next NHC forecast will show a peak of 115kts this time, I'm still thinking a cat-5 is possible out of this, only internal restructuring will probably stop that from happening.

[SouthFLTropics]

I saw a tweet from Joe Bastardi this morning that POTUS needs to have the federal government on a war footing when it comes to the weather over the next two weeks. If the models play out like they are currently showing I think that may be appropriate advice.

It's safe to say that the SE Texas coast could not handle another hit from a major at this time. In addition, the Outer Banks are still trying to recover economically from the power outage earlier this Summer. If you had to choose a location for Irma to strike where they'd be best prepared to handle it, where would it be? We sure don't want it here in East Central/South Florida but in reality we are probably better prepared to handle it than any other location at this time. The Big Bend is still recovering from Hermine last year. At the risk of sounding like I'm -removed- (which I'm not) we may be the best option for the country in terms of being able to deal with this threat. One thing everyone needs to keep in mind is that between the Harvey impacts and potential impacts to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, FEMA and the federal government is going to be stretched pretty thin.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Irma historical map from current position.


Irma historical map from the NHC 5 days position (16N/53.5W).

Wow...

Thanks for posting this. I was just over there doing the same thing....Pretty interesting stuff based on longitude. Also interesting ( and scary) is the number of CAT 3 or higher landfalls and the dates they happened. Climo seems to working against us this storm.

[tolakram]

SLIDER.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19832&y=8037&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

Small core tiny pinhole eye well established CDO and outflow.. they are going to very likely sorely under estiamte the strength of it. They will follow their forecast irregardless.

Its got a great looking set-up, and the system is looking impressive at the moment with that small core and eye peaking through occasionally as well.

I suspect the next NHC forecast will show a peak of 115kts this time, I'm still thinking a cat-5 is possible out of this, only internal restructuring will probably stop that from happening.

Eye warming quite rapidly now. wont be long until we have a solid donut and major on our hands if this keeps up over the next 8 to 12 hours.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... Jd4tAF.jpg

[islandgirl45]

I saw a tweet from Joe Bastardi this morning that POTUS needs to have the federal government on a war footing when it comes to the weather over the next two weeks. If the models play out like they are currently showing I think that may be appropriate advice.

It's safe to say that the SE Texas coast could not handle another hit from a major at this time. In addition, the Outer Banks are still trying to recover economically from the power outage earlier this Summer. If you had to choose a location for Irma to strike where they'd be best prepared to handle it, where would it be? We sure don't want it here in East Central/South Florida but in reality we are probably better prepared to handle it than any other location at this time. The Big Bend is still recovering from Hermine last year. At the risk of sounding like I'm -removed- (which I'm not) we may be the best option for the country in terms of being able to deal with this threat. One thing everyone needs to keep in mind is that between the Harvey impacts and potential impacts to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, FEMA and the federal government is going to be stretched pretty thin.

Um, no. Perhaps you forgot, Matthew visited us last year. Not everyone has recovered and repaired their homes from that.

[SouthDadeFish]

Irma is looking really good on satellite. Get ready for raw Dvorak estimates to spike way up. Could make a run at major status here, but intensity will be capped by the SSTs in the short term.

[NotSparta]

AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU,

ATCF file says winds up to 75kt, pressure down 3 mb

[KWT]

Eye warming quite rapidly now. wont be long until we have a solid donut and major on our hands if this keeps up over the next 8 to 12 hours.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... Jd4tAF.jpg

What worries me is the eyewall is looking pretty much closed off. This was the one aspect Harvey struggled with until pretty much the final 12hrs when the land interaction further tightened it up. Irma already is near that point and has a great IR presentation, IMO looks more like a 85-90kts than 70kts.

Edit, now upped to 75kts, still conservative IMO.

[frey]

I guess i can rest easy now...I'm in Morehead City and am now in the GFS crosshairs !

I SO hope & pray this turns into a fish storm (I know that's far from what models are predicting, sadly), and particularly hoping the OBX are spared. What a difficult summer it's been for them with the massive power outage. Adding a major storm on top of all they've been through... it's just hard to imagine.

I think current estimates are that Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands lost $16 million in revenue because of the black out. It was a hurricane without the physical devastation - this would crush the area, particularly when you factor in just how many of the locals live at or below the poverty line. We've all got fingers crossed for a fish storm but are watching this closely.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/903246174034984960

[SouthFLTropics]

I saw a tweet from Joe Bastardi this morning that POTUS needs to have the federal government on a war footing when it comes to the weather over the next two weeks. If the models play out like they are currently showing I think that may be appropriate advice.

It's safe to say that the SE Texas coast could not handle another hit from a major at this time. In addition, the Outer Banks are still trying to recover economically from the power outage earlier this Summer. If you had to choose a location for Irma to strike where they'd be best prepared to handle it, where would it be? We sure don't want it here in East Central/South Florida but in reality we are probably better prepared to handle it than any other location at this time. The Big Bend is still recovering from Hermine last year. At the risk of sounding like I'm -removed- (which I'm not) we may be the best option for the country in terms of being able to deal with this threat. One thing everyone needs to keep in mind is that between the Harvey impacts and potential impacts to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, FEMA and the federal government is going to be stretched pretty thin.

Um, no. Perhaps you forgot, Matthew visited us last year. Not everyone has recovered and repaired their homes from that.

Valid point...although the impacts from Matthew from Indian River County south were much less than what they were up towards Daytona, St. Augustine, and Jacksonville. I suppose the point I was making is that a hit anywhere is bad, but a hit on Texas or the Outer Banks would be extraordinarily bad. At this time we (local government) would be able to handle it much better than they could.

[Michele B]

Small core tiny pinhole eye well established CDO and outflow.. they are going to very likely sorely under estiamte the strength of it. They will follow their forecast irregardless.

Its got a great looking set-up, and the system is looking impressive at the moment with that small core and eye peaking through occasionally as well.

I suspect the next NHC forecast will show a peak of 115kts this time, I'm still thinking a cat-5 is possible out of this, only internal restructuring will probably stop that from happening.

I've seen storms strengthen to unbelievable numbers way out to sea, and then weaken before getting close to the US mainland.

Would this one be inclined to do the same thing, I wonder?

[Siker]

Size / intensity remind me of our last major in the MDR, Danny. Danny's small eye continued to clear out, bringing him near category 4 status. Of course, he was ripped apart by shear shortly after, which Irma should have no issues with.

[chris_fit]

FWIW no mention of Irma by Tampa, Melbourne, Miami, or Key West NWS - yet. Miami NWS expects a cold front to push through the area later next week.

[SouthDadeFish]

With a 12Z intensity estimate of 75 kt, Irma has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours by 30 kt. That's pretty rare for this area of the basin.

[KWT]

Irma is looking really good on satellite. Get ready for raw Dvorak estimates to spike way up. Could make a run at major status here, but intensity will be capped by the SSTs in the short term.

Not to far away from where Fred became a major hurricane in 2009, so a major in these parts of Atlantic waters are certainly possible, though I'd say that it will be heading into more marginal waters for that deep and powerful strengthening. Once it starts to move back WSW its going to retap into some very warm waters.

[tgenius]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/903246174034984960

Really not liking that Analog... though Irma is forecast to do that same WSW drop.

[RL3AO]

With a 12Z intensity estimate of 75 kt, Irma has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours by 30 kt. That's pretty rare for this area of the basin.

It's not like the NHC was cautious with their intensity forecast in the short term either. They're still not keeping up with it.