ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 335W, 70, 990, HU

Irma is a hurricane as per ATCF file

Finally! With an eye developing it should be a bit easier to track now as well.

[clambite]

I guess i can rest easy now...I'm in Morehead City and am now in the GFS crosshairs !

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Did not think it would to much longer the earlier pass 37 was showing impressive structure.

[txwatcher91]

I guess i can rest easy now...I'm in Morehead City and am now in the GFS crosshairs !

Plenty of time for things to change, no one really knows where this will be outside the 5-6 day range. Too many variables that could affect the path and pull it north or keep it in the Bahamas. We should have a good idea in 3-4 days though but I would watch it closely.

[GCANE]

[Weatherboy1]

So in the wake of a storm like Harvey, where much of the damage was done from water/rain/flooding, we now have a potential major wind-damage event in Irma. WAAAYYYY too early to say for sure if the U.S. will be impacted, or where it will be impacted if so. But it sure looks to me like Irma has the potential to get very strong, and stay very strong. That's a big difference from other systems earlier this season, which had to battle a lot of shear, dry air, etc. and couldn't get their acts together. Will definitely be model watching over the next few days.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we should be seeing some pretty decent RI throughout the day which somewhat started last night. Could be looking at a major or close to it by night fall

[emeraldislenc]

We all just need to pay attention and see how the model trends the next few days.

[Aric Dunn]

man the GFS goes way north before turning back WSW. looking at steering and the set up. that looks very suspect..

and the EURO is another hurricane georges..

[emeraldislenc]

I agree

[Blown Away]

Irma historical map from current position.


Irma historical map from the NHC 5 days position (16N/53.5W).

Wow...

[Aric Dunn]

wish they would switch the SSD floater sometime soon..

[jlauderdal]

Looks like we should be seeing some pretty decent RI throughout the day which somewhat started last night. Could be looking at a major or close to it by night fall

RI is rare so enjoy it while its in the open atlantic..dont really see much except hispanola to weaken, a case could be made for it go south of hispanola...the ots solutions are diminishing by the hour

[msbee]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
30s
GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible
major impact

OK, so this scares me. Cycloneye, what do you think?

You have about 7 days before possible impact in PR. You don't need to take action yet, but starting to make a list of what you'd need to get and do before a major storm may help put your mind at ease over the next couple days.

Thanks.. I am not in PR but I am in St Maarten so we would be impacted a day earlier than PR most likely.
I am already making lists in my head. Trying to tell my husband to get his boat out of the water this weekend..just in case.

[Aric Dunn]

Small core tiny pinhole eye well established CDO and outflow.. they are going to very likely sorely under estiamte the strength of it. They will follow their forecast irregardless.

[KBBOCA]

I guess i can rest easy now...I'm in Morehead City and am now in the GFS crosshairs !

I SO hope & pray this turns into a fish storm (I know that's far from what models are predicting, sadly), and particularly hoping the OBX are spared. What a difficult summer it's been for them with the massive power outage. Adding a major storm on top of all they've been through... it's just hard to imagine.

[wzrgirl1]

Hi everyone. I haven't posted yet this season. I am certainly keeping a watchful eye on Irma living in here in South Florida as my house is currently up for sale and an impact in South Florida will not bode well. Let's hope she recurves, right now it is a bit scary looking at the models.

[CaliforniaResident]

My SIL and her bf are planning to be in NYC from 9/9- 9/13 and visit the 9/11 museum (oh, the irony of the latest GFS run showing Irma being in NYC on the anniversary). Based on some of the runs, it could be quite freaky if Irma decides to make landfall there as a cat 2/3 there around this time. It could make Sandy look like child's play. Should I give them a heads up now or wait until the meteorological community has a better handle on the track?

[KWT]

man the GFS goes way north before turning back WSW. looking at steering and the set up. that looks very suspect..

and the EURO is another hurricane georges..

To be fair quite a few models are going quite far north, it is picking up a little latitude at the moment but not as much as the models have been suggesting and its certainly not the NW that some of the GFS suite of models have been trying to do.

As you say, I'm not really seeing any major northerly component and the steering currents to the north at the moment don't seem that suggestive of it either.

[Aric Dunn]

My SIL and her bf are planning to be in NYC from 9/9- 9/13 and visit the 9/11 museum (oh, the irony of the latest GFS run showing Irma being in NYC on the anniversary). Based on some of the runs, it could be quite freaky if Irma decides to make landfall there as a cat 2/3 there around this time. It could make Sandy look like child's play. Should I give them a heads up now or wait until the meteorological community has a better handle on the track?

way to early to know. better idea in about a week.