ATL: IRMA - Models

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=17.1;-24.0; ... =0QEQYp_5B

Upper level anticyclone, looking the perfect setup for outflow jetting.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

This would probably be record breaking low mid level heights across the SE US for early Sept if GFS was to be right.
The weird thing is that ensembles don't show the PNA to go so crazy positive and the NAO going negative.

With a little moisture its looking maybe a snow producing feature @540 in some parts.

[RL3AO]

Entire HWRF run from Ryan Maue.

[tgenius]

Entire HWRF run from Ryan Maue.

Wow that is one heck of a WSW curve on that HWRF. Pretty good clip south.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS the strong front will capture it as follow the ridge. OTS

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=33.7;-64.6; ... gfs&w=fast

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance. Looks like it is moving left of the guidance:

[RL3AO]

A small sample size, but you can see how the previous GFS runs wanted to start an immediate WNW motion. So far today, Irma has been content with west.

[SFLcane]

00z guidance some north shift lets hope that continues.

[CourierPR]

00z guidance some north shift lets hope that continues.

Please give a visual.

[SouthFLTropics]

[RL3AO]

00z guidance some north shift lets hope that continues.

We haven't gotten any of the 0z guidance that means anything yet.

[BYG Jacob]

00z guidance some north shift lets hope that continues.

We haven't gotten any of the 0z guidance that means anything yet.

The intensity predictions have me worried, all but a handful predict at least a hurricane, with a good chunk predicting a major.

[Blown Away]

00z guidance some north shift lets hope that continues.

We haven't gotten any of the 0z guidance that means anything yet.

00z TVCN is well left of most of the guidance, don't usually see that given it's a blend of multiple models...

[RL3AO]

00z TVCN is well left of most of the guidance, don't usually see that given it's a blend of multiple models...

But the TVCN is a combination the GFS, Euro, UKMET, HWRF, and maybe Canadian. None of those models are out yet at 0z. All you're seeing is the 12z or 18z runs of those models but using the 6hr forecast as the initial position.

[SFLcane]

Lol maybe it's me eyes.. 00z guidance should be interesting

[weathaguyry]

This would probably be record breaking low mid level heights across the SE US for early Sept if GFS was to be right.
The weird thing is that ensembles don't show the PNA to go so crazy positive and the NAO going negative.

With a little moisture its looking maybe a snow producing feature @540 in some parts.

That could really let something run almost S to N along the coast like Irene or Gloria

[hohnywx]

00z TVCN is well left of most of the guidance, don't usually see that given it's a blend of multiple models...

But the TVCN is a combination the GFS, Euro, UKMET, HWRF, and maybe Canadian. None of those models are out yet at 0z. All you're seeing is the 12z or 18z runs of those models but using the 6hr forecast as the initial position.

According to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml, it is a combo of the GFS, Euro, UKMET, HWRF and Coamps.

[RL3AO]

According to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml, it is a combo of the GFS, Euro, UKMET, HWRF and Coamps.

Ah. Couldn't remember the 5th one.

[JPmia]

Lol maybe it's me eyes.. 00z guidance should be interesting

SFLcane, I admire your positivity in interpreting the models. However, I am not sure it's helping yet.

[hurricanehunter69]

Lets see if that forecasted wsw motion allows Irma to pass through the Hebert Box. I'm betting that it does.