ATL: IRMA - Models

[KWT]

This is a case of the upgraded GFS overintensifying systems too quickly. It is similar to what the CMC shows with the recurve in a similar position and the CMC usually is not correct especially in the long-range. Sorry not buying this GFS!

Oh I think it will likely be every bit as strong as the GFS thinks within the next 4-5 days, I'd argue it maybe even underdoing the strength Irma will have east of the Leewards.

LOL GFS at 897mbs near the subtropics of the basin, the models really do have a horrible time with pressures in that band from 25-40N, I've noticed many WPAC typhoons forecasted to explode into monsters, and whilst they do strengthen, rarely do they become the beast the model predicts in terms of pressure.

[tolakram]

Just stop the nonsense please. I happen to think this will recurve, just not sure where. Almost all cape verde systems recurve. We just don't know yet because the range is too far.

Here, Euro goes to 240, here is the GFS at 240.

[sma10]

No reason not to consider the 18z GFS as a likely path for Irma...

Splitting hairs perhaps, but I would change the word "likely" to "possible".

It's a surefire loss to call any 200+ hour model run as likely

[SouthFLTropics]

This run could show a problem for New England

[stormhunter7]

Big time surf along the east coast!

[stormhunter7]

Ouch!?

[SouthFLTropics]

Maine and the Canadian Maritimes are going to get in on the action it looks like.

[Blown Away]

Can I ask why most of you are dismissing GFS if it fishes vs EURO?@

The GFS tends to overestimate trough strength.

Maybe just me, seems models have been over doing HP this year...

[stormhunter7]

Oh Canada!

[1900hurricane]

Heh, hello subtropical over-intensification bias.

[Langinbang187]

GFS brings it to my doorstep haha. Bring it on.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Maine and the Canadian Maritimes are going to get in on the action it looks like.

I'd rather be in the model path this far out than say 72 hrs out. However, it is still disheartening.

[KWT]

Well after all that discussion about 'fish'...it ends up within a whisker of the states and hits Newfoundland. Track similar to Bill in the 2nd half of the track.

Anyway, I suspect the GFS based models will track same way as the GFS and the ensembles from the GFS I suspect will back it up so we won't learn much new now till the 00z suite.

Climatology would argue the GFS is probably far more realistic than the ECM, but then again climatology would argue that a storm near 20N bends back down to near 16N in the MDR.

[Hurricaneman]

That's a pretty big shift west by the GFS and might be trending towards the Euro, I hope that the trends end or there could be something ugly down the pike

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 60 hours the HMON has backed off on intensity

[Blown Away]

No reason not to consider the 18z GFS as a likely path for Irma...

Splitting hairs perhaps, but I would change the word "likely" to "possible".

It's a surefire loss to call any 200+ hour model run as likely

I agree, but I was factoring climatology into the equation...

[sma10]

Let us please not forget that the GFS has a rich tradition of blowing up monsters like this annually.

We already had the So Florida Massacre yesterday; today we now have the Maine Maurader. No doubt in the coming days we'll get the NYC Screamer, and who knows, if it's feeling jaunty it might still gives us the New Orleans Nightmare.

[RL3AO]

I purged quite a few posts from the 18z model run. Most of them that were one liners like "120 hrs moving W" with no image or additional information.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The 897 pressure as it passed bermuda was entertaining to say the least from the GFS

[cajungal]

Didn't Euro have it threatening the Bahamas on its latest run and then left us with a cliffhanger? Will be interesting to see what it does tonight.