ATL: IRMA - Models

[KWT]

Should recurve on this run as there is a glaring weakness there and the upper trough is pretty large it has to be said on this run.

Typically the GFS does overdo these upper troughs outside of 120hrs, it is something the model struggles with (It drives us Brits mad when it nearly always tames our northerly airflows because its overdone the troughing!!)

Doesn't mean that will be the case this time, but I trust the ECM more with those sorts of set-ups. UKMO IMO sometimes underdoes it.

[Kingarabian]

Checked out Met. Joe Bastardi on twitter. He thinks Euro is closer to the truth than GFS.

And water is wet, lol. Bastardi hugs the Euro. Hard to tell who is going to be right or wrong that far out as the Euro and the GFS are in good agreement in the short range.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Yup. Ridge building back south at hour 162. Not looking good.

The flow is already pretty zonal across the states by this point which should help to sweep this out to sea on this run, especially at the latitude it is already at by 162hrs. Bermuda may have a problem with it on the 18z GFS, but the states should be ok.

[RL3AO]

Good old GFS vs Euro battle continues. It's hard not to lean towards the Euro, especially when the UKMET and FV3GFS is on its side too.

[KWT]

Checked out Met. Joe Bastardi on twitter. He thinks Euro is closer to the truth than GFS.

And water is wet, lol. Bastardi hugs the Euro. Hard to tell who is going to be right or wrong that far out as the Euro and the GFS are in good agreement in the short range.

Yeah, even out to 168hrs the broad pattern is very similar, the big difference is the ECM centers the upper high much further SW to the GFS with a sharper upper trough more tilted as well. Other than that not huge differences other than how they evolve the upper low.

Nearly always the way to go with the models is expect it to go west of where the consensus is when it is in the MDR/Caribbean, then on recurve expect it to go slightly east. Stick with that and your not going to be far wrong usually.

[CourierPR]

Yup. Ridge building back south at hour 162. Not looking good.

The flow is already pretty zonal across the states by this point which should help to sweep this out to sea on this run, especially at the latitude it is already at by 162hrs. Bermuda may have a problem with it on the 18z GFS, but the states should be ok.

The states would be ok if that run were to verify. That is a big if.

[FLpanhandle91]

Yup. Ridge building back south at hour 162. Not looking good.

The flow is already pretty zonal across the states by this point which should help to sweep this out to sea on this run, especially at the latitude it is already at by 162hrs. Bermuda may have a problem with it on the 18z GFS, but the states should be ok.

The states would be ok if that run were to verify. That is a big if.

With GFS's stated tendency to overdue lows such as the one NW of Irma, wouldn't this system stay further south instead of following the weakness toward the WNW around hour 126?

[FLpanhandle91]

I don't see an OTS path this run, but I am by no means an expert at interpreting these maps. I see ridging that's holding true over the Bahamas while the trough along the east coast pulls north.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Irma is SW of the 12z GFS by a hair. It could be a trend back towards the Euro solution. That is a big trough over the East Coast. Is that trough being enhanced by the recurving typhoon?

[KWT]

I've gotta say I also think the GFS is overdoing that upper trough/cutoff low over the east USA, its a good deal stronger on this 18z GFS run than the ECM which I think is probably closer to the mark.

Expect to see the GFS back away from that strength and depth as we get closer to the time, nearly always does. Of course it doesn't need to be a deep trough to pick this up, worth remembering that, timing and placement are probably more important factors overall.

Should recurve on the 18z but maybe a little more closer than I thought originally, depends on how sharp the trough is and how quickly it lifts out.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I've gotta say I also think the GFS is overdoing that upper trough/cutoff low over the east USA, its a good deal stronger on this 18z GFS run than the ECM which I think is probably closer to the mark.

Expect to see the GFS back away from that strength and depth as we get closer to the time, nearly always does. Of course it doesn't need to be a deep trough to pick this up, worth remembering that, timing and placement are probably more important factors overall.

Should recurve on the 18z but maybe a little more closer than I thought originally, depends on how sharp the trough is and how quickly it lifts out.

It almost always overdoes those. It might even be overdoing the low breaking down the ridge.

[RL3AO]

Irma is SW of the 12z GFS by a hair. It could be a trend back towards the Euro solution. That is a big trough over the East Coast. Is that trough being enhanced by the recurving typhoon?

Yes. With that trough amplifying the ridge over the Atlantic.

[FLpanhandle91]

I stand corrected. That trough is much stronger through 210 than the previous run. I thought for sure it was going to leave Irma behind that run.

[tolakram]

I'm done posting, GFS not usable at this range IMO.

[cycloneye]

GFS going fishing for sure.

Not fishing with Bermuda there.

[gatorcane]

This is a case of the upgraded GFS overintensifying systems too quickly. It is similar to what the CMC shows with the recurve in a similar position and the CMC usually is not correct especially in the long-range. Sorry not buying this GFS!

[KWT]

BA, its just as plausable as the ECM in reality, either could be right.

What I do think is the GFS is overdoing that upper trough, it may also be overdoing the upper low that weakens the ridge in the first place, but I have more confidence in that feature being there.

Monster hurricane, ignore the pressure as the models do a pretty poor job forecasting pressure depths once past 30-35N (nearly always overpeg it, ECM is also guilty of that!) but the trend is for a 4/5 to be in the Atlantic at some point soon...

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 228...Irma just hit the brakes