ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

Please pardon my lack of knowledge-I did try to look up the answer to my questions before posting:

Does the lack of significant hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean over the last decade+, impact their frequency when conditions become ripe? Also, does it increase the likelihood statistically of a major storm during peak season. I don't want to rely on intuition. Ty.

Good questions. My hunch is that "when conditions become ripe" is the key phrase. Regardless of the amount of activity in previous years, when conditions become ripe, your going to have activity. The only connection could be that conditions aren't going to always be ripe. So if you went through a period of not so great conditions, then you cyclically, you would be due for the change to more positive. As apparently we are witnessing this year. Not that this year has been incredibly active, but compared to most recent years, we are somewhat ahead of schedule I think. A "ripe" season will increase the odds statistically of a major storm during "peak season". But even during a "slow" season, there is always a respectable chance for a major storm in early Sept. (peak). This is my strictly unscientific outlook.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

ACK! The people of Southeastern Virginia don't wanna hear that...

Oh trust me, I have family in VA Beach and I live in NOVA.

Wouldn't it be luverly if Irma would become a big, beautiful, harmless fish? We could marvel at her beauty instead of stocking up on water.

That's also my hope.

Anyone who has ever experienced a major hurricane, or a serious tropical system of any kind, firsthand does not want this to threaten anyone who is anywhere.

[Evenstar]

Windsat is useless for measuring winds. Extremely biased.

agreed. however at some point when they start getting high enough like the 80kt barb combined with the microwave and satellite presentation.. it is not like I said that hard to argue...

Yeah, and given we've only just have Harvey literally days ago show how once you get an inner core you can ramp up very quickly. I think it maybe a little early yet to go hurricane, but with the inner core the way it is, that data will give the NHC at least something to think about, especially as Dvorak is out with the fairies with this at the moment.

"out with the fairies"
Adding British witticisms to weather discussions makes me happy.

[Exalt]

Oh trust me, I have family in VA Beach and I live in NOVA.

Wouldn't it be luverly if Irma would become a big, beautiful, harmless fish? We could marvel at her beauty instead of stocking up on water.

That's also my hope.

Anyone who has ever experienced a major hurricane, or a serious tropical system of any kind, firsthand does not want this to threaten anyone who is anywhere.

Only storms I've luckily ever had to experience were Irene and Sandy, and luckily Sandy dumped 20 some inches of snow instead of rain.

[Evenstar]

Oh trust me, I have family in VA Beach and I live in NOVA.

Wouldn't it be luverly if Irma would become a big, beautiful, harmless fish? We could marvel at her beauty instead of stocking up on water.

you should already be stocked up on supplies

You ain't wrong, my friend. You ain't wrong!

[stormreader]

agreed. however at some point when they start getting high enough like the 80kt barb combined with the microwave and satellite presentation.. it is not like I said that hard to argue...

Yeah, and given we've only just have Harvey literally days ago show how once you get an inner core you can ramp up very quickly. I think it maybe a little early yet to go hurricane, but with the inner core the way it is, that data will give the NHC at least something to think about, especially as Dvorak is out with the fairies with this at the moment.

"out with the fairies"
Adding British witticisms to weather discussions makes me happy.

Any developing storm (regardless of the scientific observations) so far out to sea, and at this point, so little threat to a particular coast or island, is part of a "dreamscape" within the imagination. Thus, the posts about "Cat 5's" and the like. It will begin to materialize for most of us in the next 3 or 4 days.

[Evenstar]

Yeah, and given we've only just have Harvey literally days ago show how once you get an inner core you can ramp up very quickly. I think it maybe a little early yet to go hurricane, but with the inner core the way it is, that data will give the NHC at least something to think about, especially as Dvorak is out with the fairies with this at the moment.

"out with the fairies"
Adding British witticisms to weather discussions makes me happy.

Any developing storm (regardless of the scientific observations) so far out to sea, and at this point, so little threat to a particular coast or island, is part of a "dreamscape" within the imagination. Thus, the posts about "Cat 5's" and the like. It will begin to materialize for most of us in the next 3 or 4 days.

Yes, but if we cannot study the science, follow the models AND speculate based on history and colloquialisms and the like, what would be the point of coming to Storm2k? And honestly, I rather prefer the speculation from some of our Storm2k folks over anything offered by the mainstream media.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Wouldn't it be luverly if Irma would become a big, beautiful, harmless fish? We could marvel at her beauty instead of stocking up on water.

That's also my hope.

Anyone who has ever experienced a major hurricane, or a serious tropical system of any kind, firsthand does not want this to threaten anyone who is anywhere.

Only storms I've luckily ever had to experience were Irene and Sandy, and luckily Sandy dumped 20 some inches of snow instead of rain.

Consider yourself lucky. I went through Andrew in South Florida then Arthur (2014) where I now live. Andrew was utter devastation and even in Arthur, I lost power for a week (besides my property was extensively flooded).

[Orlando]

I am really growing to hate this time of year. Time seems to stand still while I become immersed in these storms. They are interesting to watch, however they can be very troubling. Hoping for a fish storm for Irma.

[Kingarabian]

Just needs to establish the CDO further to get past the dry air and it will be all systems go:

[Exalt]

Just needs to establish the CDO further to get past the dry air and it will be all systems go:

Outflow looks great for a TS.

[stormreader]

"out with the fairies"
Adding British witticisms to weather discussions makes me happy.

Any developing storm (regardless of the scientific observations) so far out to sea, and at this point, so little threat to a particular coast or island, is part of a "dreamscape" within the imagination. Thus, the posts about "Cat 5's" and the like. It will begin to materialize for most of us in the next 3 or 4 days.

Yes, but if we cannot study the science, follow the models AND speculate based on history and colloquialisms and the like, what would be the point of coming to Storm2k? And honestly, I rather prefer the speculation from some of our Storm2k folks over anything offered by the mainstream media.

Total agreement--got to have the science, and speculation based on history. Love it...And the imagination, too, is good at this point. Yeah, didn't care for the early prognostication by that local met... way too early for any of that. At this point, just watch, and learn, and be amazed.

[txwatcher91]

Some pretty deep convection too considering the SST’s it is over right now. The dry air won’t be a problem for it imo.

[KWT]

Little doubt that this will be a hurricane very soon, its got the look of a really impressive storm, the type that will probably quite quickly become a major hurricane.

[1900hurricane]

This is an impressive looking tropical storm considering the location. Irma currently features dual outflow channels.

[Exalt]

This is an impressive looking tropical storm considering the location. Irma currently features dual outflow channels.

Plenty of time overnight for those cloud tops to cool

[Kingarabian]

Seems like the developing CDO is just west of the center. Going to need it to expand east a bit more.

[DuskMurdock]

Been watching these forums for awhile. I've been in a few minor hurricanes in FL and now in PA. Sandy was nasty here in Lehigh but I know it was worse elsewhere. It's got me fascinated with watching these storms now. Hoping it's a fish storm myself.

Sandy was a super rare trajectory right? Most PA storms are typically brushing the coast or maybe coming up from the Carolinas and weakening?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Been watching these forums for awhile. I've been in a few minor hurricanes in FL and now in PA. Sandy was nasty here in Lehigh but I know it was worse elsewhere. It's got me fascinated with watching these storms now. Hoping it's a fish storm myself.

Sandy was a super rare trajectory right? Most PA storms are typically brushing the coast or maybe coming up from the Carolinas and weakening?

Yes, Sandy took a very rare path. She was atypical among tropical systems affecting this part of the world.

[DuskMurdock]

Been watching these forums for awhile. I've been in a few minor hurricanes in FL and now in PA. Sandy was nasty here in Lehigh but I know it was worse elsewhere. It's got me fascinated with watching these storms now. Hoping it's a fish storm myself.

Sandy was a super rare trajectory right? Most PA storms are typically brushing the coast or maybe coming up from the Carolinas and weakening?

Yes, Sandy took a very rare path. She was atypical among tropical systems affecting this part of the world.

Thanks for confirming. I have got a bit obsessed with these things and trying to learn. I was watching Jeff Piotrowski do his live coverage while inside of Harvey and was blown away (no pun intended). Being near the NE coast here in allentown, I can't help but get nervous when one is near by haha...