ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is a reference that shows just how rare Cat 5's are in the Atlantic basin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_C ... hurricanes

[Aric Dunn]

A possible candidate for unexpected RI? Thin cyan ring on 37-GHz color-composite imagery.

Normally this would be good, with more latitude expected. But here? IDK...

Gaining latitude looks unlikely in the short term with that ridge to the north. Wonder is strengthening might give it more forward impetus as it scoots under that ridge. Making it even more susceptible to the overall upper level west push under that ridge. That would take it further west a little quicker, won't speculate how that might impact longer range forecast. Just a thought, could see an increase in forward speed.

the 12z euro was faster in short term and long term... that will give you a good idea what to specualte about

[meriland29]

[Img] http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif[\img]

[Evenstar]

The last cat 5 that far out that I can recall was Isabel 2003

And guess where she went?

ACK! The people of Southeastern Virginia don't wanna hear that...

[Aric Dunn]

Actually looking at the windsat.. could pretty easily argue a hurricane alreadly.

bunch of 65 kt and a 80kt barb in there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The last cat 5 that far out that I can recall was Isabel 2003

And guess where she went?

ACK! The people of Southeastern Virginia don't wanna hear that...

Not saying this is Isabel. Vastly different and thats not to say Irma ever gets that strong

[Ken711]

I'll put the peak intensity over/under at 126 knots. I'd be surprised if we don't get a cat 4 out of this in 7 to 10 days.

I agree. I'm thinking Matthew Cat 5 level.

You thinking "Matthew" for track, too, Ken??

Yes, I think it could be a coast hugger before curving out off of the Outer Banks.

[Hurricaneman]

A possible candidate for unexpected RI? Thin cyan ring on 37-GHz color-composite imagery.

that is organizing incredibly fast. like my post above a major in 36 hours is possible.

Seems to have an eye on windsat and that's not good unless we have ewrc's and whatnot

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Please pardon my lack of knowledge-I did try to look up the answer to my questions before posting:

Does the lack of significant hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean over the last decade+, impact their frequency when conditions become ripe? Also, does it increase the likelihood statistically of a major storm during peak season. I don't want to rely on intuition. Ty.

[Exalt]

The last cat 5 that far out that I can recall was Isabel 2003

And guess where she went?

ACK! The people of Southeastern Virginia don't wanna hear that...

Oh trust me, I have family in VA Beach and I live in NOVA.

[Kingarabian]

Actually looking at the windsat.. could pretty easily argue a hurricane alreadly.

bunch of 65 kt and a 80kt barb in there.

Windsat is useless for measuring winds. Extremely biased.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually looking at the windsat.. could pretty easily argue a hurricane alreadly.

bunch of 65 kt and a 80kt barb in there.

Windsat is useless for measuring winds. Extremely biased.

agreed. however at some point when they start getting high enough like the 80kt barb combined with the microwave and satellite presentation.. it is not like I said that hard to argue...

[Exalt]

Am I wrong for saying that I wouldn't be surprised if this was a major by tomorrow night or Friday morning?

[Evenstar]

ACK! The people of Southeastern Virginia don't wanna hear that...

Oh trust me, I have family in VA Beach and I live in NOVA.

Wouldn't it be luverly if Irma would become a big, beautiful, harmless fish? We could marvel at her beauty instead of stocking up on water.

[1900hurricane]

Actually looking at the windsat.. could pretty easily argue a hurricane alreadly.

bunch of 65 kt and a 80kt barb in there.

I would not trust WindSat under or near the edges of convection. It will run high and sometimes throw weird wind directions at you.

[meriland29]

Alright, let's put what I said to rest . I was just implying it would be very surprising if a monstrosity like such were to hit without either recurving, or dying out. If it does, I couldn't even imagine the level of destruction, would make Harvey look small, and that's sad. Now, lets check out what the new GFS says about Irma

[jlauderdal]

Am I wrong for saying that I wouldn't be surprised if this was a major by tomorrow night or Friday morning?

nope, RI is difficult to predict and unlikely but not impossible in this regime

[meriland29]

Am I wrong for saying that I wouldn't be surprised if this was a major by tomorrow night or Friday morning?

The way it is looking atm I wouldnt be surprised if she were a solid high end Cat 2 by tomorrow morning. Shes ramping it up with vengence.

[KWT]

Actually looking at the windsat.. could pretty easily argue a hurricane alreadly.

bunch of 65 kt and a 80kt barb in there.

Windsat is useless for measuring winds. Extremely biased.

agreed. however at some point when they start getting high enough like the 80kt barb combined with the microwave and satellite presentation.. it is not like I said that hard to argue...

Yeah, and given we've only just have Harvey literally days ago show how once you get an inner core you can ramp up very quickly. I think it maybe a little early yet to go hurricane, but with the inner core the way it is, that data will give the NHC at least something to think about, especially as Dvorak is out with the fairies with this at the moment.

[jlauderdal]

ACK! The people of Southeastern Virginia don't wanna hear that...

Oh trust me, I have family in VA Beach and I live in NOVA.

Wouldn't it be luverly if Irma would become a big, beautiful, harmless fish? We could marvel at her beauty instead of stocking up on water.

you should already be stocked up on supplies