ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

FOX26 Houston met says he is confident that, "Irma is not coming into the GOM."

I know we are not supposed to bash, but...really?

[psyclone]

Irma looks like the type of system we should expect to see this time of year. No doubt a whopper in the making. The good news is we have time to watch it and we should have a Labor day weekend absent tropical mischief in the CONUS... Climo says the odds favor an OTS solution but it's worth noting that the ones that have reached land from this location are disproportionately biggies. If Irma makes it past the goalie...it could be trouble.

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/kXXOb1M.png[img]

Beginning to look uneasy for you, Luis.

[Aric Dunn]

if it gets the inner core developed before the more stable air it wont matter... systems like this are not affected much. also once they start that intensification mode from the time the core id established they hardly ever just slowly intensify. i say major in 36 hours. assuming the current trend leads to a core developing within the next 12 hours or so.

[psyclone]

FOX26 Houston met says he is confident that, "Irma is not coming into the GOM."

I know we are not supposed to bash, but...really?

Seems to be a reasonable stance at this point considering the circumstances. The met will probably be right and if he isn't there will be ample time to sound the alarm when the time comes. In the interim, those folks have enough on their plate without speculating 12 days ahead.

[stormreader]

FOX26 Houston met says he is confident that, "Irma is not coming into the GOM."

I know we are not supposed to bash, but...really?

Famous last words!

[chaser1]

Should pressure guesses go in the main thread?

Good question? A thread under "Tropics" or just a separate thread under "Active Storms"?? Really don't know. Any Mod's, feel free to chime in or move accordingly

[cycloneye]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/kXXOb1M.png[img]

Beginning to look uneasy for you, Luis.

Increasely yes.But is still 7 days away.

[meriland29]

Anything under 920 seems like fairytale stuff to me. There are just some extremes even a hurricane can't achieve at that size...

[SouthDadeFish]

A possible candidate for unexpected RI? Thin cyan ring on 37-GHz color-composite imagery.

[Hurricane Andrew]

A possible candidate for unexpected RI? Thin cyan ring on 37-GHz color-composite imagery.

Normally this would be good, with more latitude expected. But here? IDK...

[Raebie]

918.

[meriland29]

Someone earlier mentioned near 200mph winds and a Cat 6, I dont think that is even possible.

[Aric Dunn]

A possible candidate for unexpected RI? Thin cyan ring on 37-GHz color-composite imagery.

that is organizing incredibly fast. like my post above a major in 36 hours is possible.

[Kingarabian]

A possible candidate for unexpected RI? Thin cyan ring on 37-GHz color-composite imagery.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/9HkAQWm.jpg[img]

SouthDadeFish, would a pink ring be a better indicator? Or do we simply look for a cyan ring?

[caneseddy]

Someone earlier mentioned near 200mph winds and a Cat 6, I dont think that is even possible.

Patricia in 2015 got up to 215 mph winds out in the East Pac, so while very rare, it is possible

[Raebie]

Anything under 920 seems like fairytale stuff to me. There are just some extremes even a hurricane can't achieve at that size...

Cat 5 is <920. Hardly the stuff of fairytales.

[KWT]

FOX26 Houston met says he is confident that, "Irma is not coming into the GOM."

I know we are not supposed to bash, but...really?

Seems to be a reasonable stance at this point considering the circumstances. The met will probably be right and if he isn't there will be ample time to sound the alarm when the time comes. In the interim, those folks have enough on their plate without speculating 12 days ahead.

I think I'd be FAR less confident, I think for now it would be enough just to say "its a long way away still, and therefore the track is quite uncertain still".

I heard people be that confident before and the storms have then made them look real stupid, sometimes mere days afterwards.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Someone earlier mentioned near 200mph winds and a Cat 6, I dont think that is even possible.

Patricia in 2015 got up to 215 mph winds out in the East Pac, so while very rare, it is possible

Yes. That storm was basically a cat 6 with 215 mph winds with 235+ gusts accompanied my a pressure in the 880's

[Evenstar]

Anything under 920 seems like fairytale stuff to me. There are just some extremes even a hurricane can't achieve at that size...

Cat 5 is <920. Hardly the stuff of fairytales.

Unless it's Grimm fairytale...