ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

I was gonna give Aric a little crap for his eyewall comment. Then I saw this microwave image from about three hours ago. Center was located at 16.4°N 30.3°W.

lol.. you dont need microwave with this convective pattern

besides i posted microwave a couple hours ago that is now 5 hoursold showing

A CDO shouldn't be forming this early, I have an extremely eerie feeling about this.

[chaser1]

Irma's Lowest Pressure Pole! Pole closes 0Z Sept. 2 (didn't know if it were appropriate to start an entirely new thread for this)

I'm going to go with 919mb

908

908mb? OUCH!!

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is a cool view: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 5_11L.html

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Here we go again,

I am going with 924.

[Nimbus]

@TropicalTidbits
Forecast for #Irma is subtle. Stronger TC would usually move more north due to beta drift, but deeper vortex could feel upper southward flow

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/902927021554237441

southward flow meaning north to south..

What is the current spread on the BAM models?
Is the BAMD deep layer flow that much further south?
I was hoping the earlier strengthening would cause the track clear the ConUS.

[galaxy401]

Ugh I don't want to make a prediction this early but....I'll go with 930 mb.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am going to go with a pressure of 930 mb at max strength. I will say it is going to hit somewhere on the East Coast.

[chaser1]

Ugh I don't want to make a prediction this early but....I'll go with 930 mb.

Well, I'd just assume wait till it had a pinhole eye to make a guess too , but that would take all the fun out of it.

[Exalt]

Irma's Lowest Pressure Pole! Pole closes 0Z Sept. 2 (didn't know if it were appropriate to start an entirely new thread for this)

I'm going to go with 919mb

905mb seems like a good (well.. horrific) number to me, I don't see any reason why this couldn't reach Cat 5. However way it's projected to go (between Cuba and Florida or through the East Coast), I'm scared, I have family right in Miami and I live in NOVA, and after Irene and Sandy, well..

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Irma is displaying increasingly organized symmetric and interlocking
rainbands with a well-defined outflow as seen in the visible and
infrared satellite imagery this afternoon. Dvorak classifications
from both TAFB and SAB have gone up at 18Z, suggesting 45 and 35 kt,
respectively. Given their low bias earlier compared with the ASCAT
scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is bumped up to 50 kt at
advisory time.

Irma is embedded within very low tropospheric vertical shear
currently and for the foreseeable future, as the tropical storm lies
underneath the upper-level anticyclone. However, in about three
days the SSTs and the mid-level humidities that Irma should start to
encounter will become cooler and drier. The intensity guidance
shows steady intensification for the next two to three days, then
diverges in response to the low shear/not-as-favorable
thermodynamical environment. The official intensity forecast is
closest to the ICON consensus technique through three days, then
shows no change to day five. This new forecast is higher than the
previous advisory, but lower than ICON at day 4 and 5 (and thus may
be conservative).

Irma is moving toward the west at about 13 kt along the south side
of the deep-layer Azores high. A slight turn toward the west-
northwest at a slower rate of forward speed is expected during
the next three days. As the high strengthens, Irma is expected to
turn toward the west-southwest around day 4. There is a moderate
amount of spread among the normally reliable global and mesoscale
models in this scenario. The official track forecast is based upon
the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and is nearly the same as
that from the previous advisory.

Despite the large overall envelope of the Irma's circulation, the
earlier ASCAT passes showed a very small area of tropical-storm-
force winds - only 30 nm radius. The official size forecast is
based upon the RVCN - variable consensus technique.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 16.4N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 16.8N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 18.2N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 47.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[RL3AO]

Now brings it to a hurricane tomorrow morning.

[Exalt]

I really don't like this possibility of Irma entering the Gulf, especially after this mess..

[Aric Dunn]

Now brings it to a hurricane tomorrow morning.

well yeah lol.. no surprise there.

[chaser1]

Irma's Lowest Pressure Pole! Pole closes 0Z Sept. 2 (didn't know if it were appropriate to start an entirely new thread for this)

I'm going to go with 919mb

905mb seems like a good (well.. horrific) number to me, I don't see any reason why this couldn't reach Cat 5. However way it's projected to go (between Cuba and Florida or through the East Coast), I'm scared, I have family right in Miami and I live in NOVA, and after Irene and Sandy, well..

Congrats! You just surpassed Scorpion with THAT "how low can Irma go" guess

[1900hurricane]

Should pressure guesses go in the main thread?

[Exalt]

932 is the lowest it'll go in my opinion, closer to the Euro. GFS always likes to show insane low pressures that end up being far too low.

Is there really any variable that could stop this from being a Cat 5, besides time and land?

[Orlando]

FOX26 Houston met says he is confident that, "Irma is not coming into the GOM."

[AxaltaRacing24]

932 is the lowest it'll go in my opinion, closer to the Euro. GFS always likes to show insane low pressures that end up being far too low.

Is there really any variable that could stop this from being a Cat 5, besides time and land?

Not too much. I'd go with 925 as my guess.

[KWT]

Now brings it to a hurricane tomorrow morning.

To be expected given the way the inner core is presently developing. Probably will be a major hurricane by day-5.

Also interesting to once again note official forecast is for this system to be at the same latitude in 5 days pretty much wiping out all the gains made till that point.

[cycloneye]