ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

tis pretty high north, looks like it may make a northern turn if not dissipate before it is anywhere near (as per ensemble models, however at 10 days out +, who honestly knows. It is like trying to throw a pin into a pinhole 500 yards away..)

Given the impending structure of the atlantic, what do you hypothesize will happen to 93L? Is there quite a lot of anticipated shear, dry air, or pull via other systems?

[KWT]

IMO there is a fairly hefty wind shear zone to the north of it, so if it goes a little too far north it could get hit, if the zone drags down by a developing ULL as per the 12z GFS, also could possibly hit it.

However, right now on its probable track conditions look ok to me, and at the moment its pretty close to qualifying for a tropical depression.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a depression already and while still 10 to 15 days out everyone from Nova Scotia to the eastern GOM but the lesser Antilles first should monitor the progress of 93L

[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like a depression already and while still 10 to 15 days out everyone from Nova Scotia to the eastern GOM but the lesser Antilles first should monitor the progress of 93L

If NHC says it has a 90% chance of becoming a depression, that pretty much means it's already a depression.

[meriland29]

In case anyone is interested in the current loop... it does look healthy, if it isn't a TD by now, I would be surprised. Good formulated rotation..but man, he looks to be hauling butt! Then again. I have been watching harvey go 2 mph for the past week so that might be why..

[AxaltaRacing24]

In case anyone is interested in the current loop... it does look healthy, if it isn't a TD by now, I would be surprised. Good formulated rotation..but man, he looks to be hauling butt! Then again. I have been watching harvey go 2 mph for the past week so that might be why..

It is not moving as fast as you think. The 21 hour loop that you posted is deceiving though.

[meriland29]

right, hence why I stated it probably 'looks' fast cause I have been eyeballing Harvey forever..

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 15.4°N 25.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[cycloneye]

Loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Nimbus]

Models initialized at 16 degrees N would probably look quite a bit different, and its hard to miss a weakness with a track that runs more northerly.

[RL3AO]

Models initialized at 16 degrees N would probably look quite a bit different, and its hard to miss a weakness with a track that runs more northerly.

Where the NHC analyzes a low has zero impact on the global models.

[floridasun78]

we want dead tropic now busy was forecast

[blp]

That would be one massive storm. Looks like Floyd from 99.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902611870602989570

[Exalt]

That would be one massive storm. Looks like Floyd from 99.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902611870602989570

That's no doubt a major, a scary one at that..

[KBBOCA]

That would be one massive storm. Looks like Floyd from 99.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902611870602989570

I usually have a TON of respect for Ryan Moue's work, but I'm not sure this tweet is wise or responsible before 93L is even an official depression, while it''s still SO far away, and in light of the Harvey tragedy. This seems like something not really appropriate to post on Twitter where many may have NO clue that this is only informed SPECULATION at this point.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I agree a bit premature to post something that is possible but at this time not a fact. I do think based on the size and structure of 93L it will be a large storm geographical wise. Time will tell what kind of strength it will get to, given the conditions it will have to work with.

[KBBOCA]

I agree a bit premature to post something that is possible but at this time not a fact. I do think based on the size and structure of 93L it will be a large storm geographical wise. Time will tell what kind of strength it will get to, given the conditions it will have to work with.

Certainly the models give reason for concern and give some credence to Ryan Moue's tweet.

My main problem is that it's TWITTER. People will retweet it out of context and it will alarm people. At the very least Moue needed a link to some kind of longer blog post in which the CURRENT status of the storm (still an Invest far out in the Eastern Atlantic) and the UNCERTAINTY of long-range model projections is acknowledged.

I mean how many thousands of tweets have there been about the shark swimming on the Houston freeways this week. Twitter is so easily abused... All nuance is lost.

[Blown Away]

That would be one massive storm. Looks like Floyd from 99.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902611870602989570

That position puts SFL in clear nearly all the time... Mid Atlantic maybe... JMHO

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/902624603767492608

[AdamFirst]

A Frances redux, perhaps?

It'll be a weekend late, as Frances was a Labor Day storm for the Florida peninsula.

Will definitely be watching this one...it's all we can do anyway. Just watch and hope for the best.