ATL: IRMA - Models

[N2FSU]

06z shifts north and recurves. Many changes over the coming days.

[KWT]

Certainly is a SW shift on the models overall, the 06z GFS still trying to recurve, though it does actually miss the intial connection and slows right down in the NW Atlantic a little to the west of Bermuda.

Expect the trend for the upper trough to slowly get less intense on the models as we get closer to the time to continue and with it the odds of it missing its connection out are really increasing.

This is especially true given the models are backing off from the intensity over the first 3-5 days.

[RL3AO]

EPS plot from Alan Brammer.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/902485343751905280

[RL3AO]

Overnight model runs

0z Euro


6z GFS

[NDG]

When King Euro starts trending in its mid range forecast you start paying attention, other models will most likely follow.

[HurricaneEric]

Hasn't this been the overarching theme with the models? Showing quick development, weak ridging, strong trough, and OTS only for them to trend weaker w/ storm, strong ridging, weaker trough, and eventually a threat to land. Not sure how these southwest shifts are much of a surprise anymore.

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[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS 6Z post above if it verifies shows a cutoff/L with a strong looking cold front
moving across the continent. Timing looks the key as too how fast the attached front moves
over the SE and into the atl too capture the system. On the run.

[caneman]

When King Euro starts trending in its mid range forecast you start paying attention, other models will most likely follow.

Not sure what the whole King Euro thing is about. All models have done alot of flip flopping this year. Last I checked all models, except the GFS, have it going West. So there really is no following. With 7 - 10 days out, there will be more changes. Best to follow the blend.

[caneman]

Hasn't this been the overarching theme with the models? Showing quick development, weak ridging, strong trough, and OTS only for them to trend weaker w/ storm, strong ridging, weaker trough, and eventually a threat to land. Not sure how these southwest shifts are much of a surprise anymore.

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They're not a surprise and most likely it will change again this far out.

[RL3AO]

When King Euro starts trending in its mid range forecast you start paying attention, other models will most likely follow.

I bet if the GFS shifted 500 miles in one run at day 8 you would be making fun of it.

[Blown Away]

06z... Not super aggressive with intensity... Most guidance already nearing 20N @50W, which usually means OTS...

[RL3AO]

06z... Not super aggressive with intensity... Most guidance already nearing 20N @50W, which usually means OTS...

Maybe if it was a hurricane. A weak TS at 20N 50W is a different story.

[NDG]

When King Euro starts trending in its mid range forecast you start paying attention, other models will most likely follow.

http://i.imgur.com/p1XJ1TT.gif

Not sure what the whole King Euro thing is about. All models have done alot of flip flopping this year. Last I checked all models, except the GFS, have it going West. So there really is no following. With 7 - 10 days out, there will be more changes. Best to follow the blend.

One more time, King Euro, just to give you a hard time.

If you analyze what I said I am talking about its mid range forecast, not its 7-10 day range which is still not the best if not horrible at times.

[caneman]

When King Euro starts trending in its mid range forecast you start paying attention, other models will most likely follow.

http://i.imgur.com/p1XJ1TT.gif

Not sure what the whole King Euro thing is about. All models have done alot of flip flopping this year. Last I checked all models, except the GFS, have it going West. So there really is no following. With 7 - 10 days out, there will be more changes. Best to follow the blend.

One more time, King Euro, just to give you a hard time.

If you analyze what I said I am talking about its mid range forecast, not its 7-10 day range which is still not the best if not horrible at times.

[/quote]

I bet if the GFS shifted 500 miles in one run at day 8 you would be making fun of it.[/quote]

He also forgets to mention all the times the Euro flip flops. You can't just use a snap shot in time when a model does have.something right and declare an overall success. Looking at the blend of forecast track, the invest will be at 20 N and 50 W. That would usually mean out to sea. Lastly, when you review results of model tracks and results after a storm many are tightly clustered in accuracy. If it does go out to sea, you will never see.the King Euro people come back and say it was wrong. Always go with the blend.

[gatorcane]

That 00Z Euro run is awfully similar to another "I" storm from 2008 that formed around the same area and got pretty far north in latitude before it dived WSW. Most of us thought no way it made it to the US let alone the Gulf!

[NDG]

06z... Not super aggressive with intensity... Most guidance already nearing 20N @50W, which usually means OTS...

Maybe if it was a hurricane. A weak TS at 20N 50W is a different story.

Even a stacked weak TS will feel a weakness in the mid level ridge to its north, not unless is a very shallow TD or tropical wave stuck in the low level easterlies will it not feel the weakness.

The story here is that models are trending to a stronger Atlantic ridge to the north 93L when it starts approaching 50W.

[caneman]

When King Euro starts trending in its mid range forecast you start paying attention, other models will most likely follow.

http://i.imgur.com/p1XJ1TT.gif

Not sure what the whole King Euro thing is about. All models have done alot of flip flopping this year. Last I checked all models, except the GFS, have it going West. So there really is no following. With 7 - 10 days out, there will be more changes. Best to follow the blend.

One more time, King Euro, just to give you a hard time.

If you analyze what I said I am talking about its mid range forecast, not its 7-10 day range which is still not the best if not horrible at times.

No worries. It's just misleading. I like to give the King Euro people grief because of that. Make no mistake, I find the Euro to be right many times and probably the most accurate but far better accuracy is had with a blend. Always appreciate your quality posts.

[SFLcane]

I tend to agree with this at 20n that far out will be a tuff task " IKE " was an extreme rarity which made that far west.

[NDG]

Not sure what the whole King Euro thing is about. All models have done alot of flip flopping this year. Last I checked all models, except the GFS, have it going West. So there really is no following. With 7 - 10 days out, there will be more changes. Best to follow the blend.

One more time, King Euro, just to give you a hard time.

If you analyze what I said I am talking about its mid range forecast, not its 7-10 day range which is still not the best if not horrible at times.

I bet if the GFS shifted 500 miles in one run at day 8 you would be making fun of it.

He also forgets to mention all the times the Euro flip flops. You can't just use a snap shot in time when a model does have.something right and declare an overall success. Looking at the blend of forecast track, the invest will be at 20 N and 50 W. That would usually mean out to sea. Lastly, when you review results of model tracks and results after a storm many are tightly clustered in accuracy. If it does go out to sea, you will never see.the King Euro people come back and say it was wrong. Always go with the blend.

I am giving you all the right to remind me later if the Euro's trend ends up being wrong.