Morning Larry Thoughts / Observations

[wxman57]

First of all, I was awakened overnight by the sounds of my blinds rattling. It was cool enough to leave the windows open (in Houston) and the north winds picked up in the middle of the night as the second surge of cooler air moved through. The morning surface map indicates temperatures in the upper 50s along the lower Texas coast, not exactly the kind of fuel a tropical storm likes:

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/da ... fc_aus.gif

As I looked at Larry through the night (I always keep an auto-updating satellite up and running on my monitor) I could see the convection slowly diminishing. Almost all the deep convection is gone now, but this is most likely just a temporary fluctuation.

As for the dynamical models - GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET, and Canadian (I couldn't get the ECMWF for some reason), all are unanimous in driving Larry inland into Mexico between 48hrs (GFDL) and about 120hrs (UKMET). I did notice one oddity in the Canadian run. It moved Larry inland at around 120hrs or earlier but then at 144hrs it showed a frontal wave moving across Florida as the next cold front pushed south across the Gulf on Monday.

The statistica-dynamicall deep tropics models, BAMM/BAMD show changes from yesterday - at least the BAMM. The BAMM is no longer indicating a turn back to the east, just a slow westward motion toward Mexico at 120hrs. The only models I see now indicating any Florida threat are LBAR (useless model) and BAMD. BAMD keeps insisting that Larry will be caught up in the westerly jet stream across the northern Gulf, but there are two problems with this. First, the BAMD is really a deeper tropics model, and it doesn't always in the changing environment of the subtropics. Second, the BAMD generally works best with stronger storms than Larry, as stronger storms are steered by higher-level winds.

So, the current NHC track reflects little except a lack of commitment on their part. I doubt that Larry will remain where it is at day 5, with the next round of cold air flowing into the Bay of Campeche. But if it does, the cooler air won't help. The GFDL may have the right idea, but it could be a little fast. Perhaps inland into Mexico at 72-96 hours may be more likely.

I still wouldn't rule out at least SOME threat to Florida. The Canadian may have the right idea, brining a piece of what's left of Larry NE up the front toward Florida. But such a threat would more likely be a rain threat and not a wind threat.

I wonder what JB will say today? One thing I've noticed the past 2 seasons that I've been watching him is that if a storm has 1 chance in 1000 of affecting the east U.S. coast then that's the track he goes with. I guess everyone is sometimes afflicted by that "-removed-" bug.

Well, off to work. I'll post some screen shots of high-res visible images and surface plots through the day.

[ameriwx2003]

wxman57.. nice post ... As for Joe B once I got past his rant he has been on now for the past 2 days:):) Joe B is sticking to his guns.. he thinks by Saturday this will be a 90 MPH hurricane and he still thinks it will move North then NE and that the Central and Eastern Gulf need to be watching.:).. I agree with the camp that Larry will move into Mexico. Also, It look like the GFS is acting like the Canadian and bringing a piece of energy up the front into Florida as well. we shall see:):).. Oh, also Joe B is honking about development in the Western Caribbean at this time next week:):)

[Aimless]

I noted some hints in some models of development in the Caribbean next week as well.

The conditions look fairly good to me. ( no idea where it might go....)

Thoughts?

[wx247]

Good discussion wxman57. Why do you think the NHC is being so noncommital? Is it to cover their butts?

[JCT777]

Good update, wxman57. Thanks!

[Stormcenter]

I think the NHC has a feeling Larry will eventually head northeast but right now they are not 100% sure of it.

[Steve]

Good post 57. Once you get a chance to read his post from today, I wonder if you'd agree with the objective classification he pimps. He's been on this rant for a couple of years, but today's really showed he was losing his patience with agenda-driven naming schemes. He didn't get rude or ugly as he sometimes does, but he was adamant. In the interest of science, I'm going to back him today.

As noted above, he's sticking with his guns (Opal over Roxanne) but noted a new wildcard which is an ULL in the Caribbean.
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Whenever you get the chance, I'm intersted in your take.
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One thing I'd add is while the cold fronts (and Sunday's may be fairly strong, and it already was chilly here in New Orleans after last night's front), is that the front itself and the sinking air behind it could lead to some upward lift to its south and southeast that should be enough to maintain Larry all other things considered.

Steve

[GulfBreezer]

Thanks WX! Joe B may irritate ALOT of people (myself included) but he has made some pretty bold predictions that have come to fruition. As for Larry, down to 1003 MB and I have to agree that he won't stay stationary as long as the models and NHC are expecting. The bottom line is that I dont think ANYONE really has a clue as to what will happen. Timing is everything right now and Larry probably has as much chance of dissipating as he does of becoming that 90 mph cane Joe B is honking at. ANTICIPATION.............

[Derecho]

So, the current NHC track reflects little except a lack of commitment on their part. I doubt that Larry will remain where it is at day 5

I think it's a genuine belief that Larry will likely be near where it is now in five days; Roxanne spent ELEVEN days wandering a fairly small area of the Bay of Campeche, so it's no unprecedented.

The Canadian may have the right idea, brining a piece of what's left of Larry NE up the front toward Florida.

Looking at the vort maps it appears this "thing" really shouldn't be considered "Larry" but a separate spin-up.

I wonder what JB will say today? One thing I've noticed the past 2 seasons that I've been watching him is that if a storm has 1 chance in 1000 of affecting the east U.S. coast then that's the track he goes with. I guess everyone is sometimes afflicted by that "-removed-" bug.

Larry Cosgrove is even worse in this regard.

[JetMaxx]

I noticed that spin up in the Western Caribbean that JB is alluding too...last nights 00z NOGAPS is progging tropical development and intensification south of Jamaica in the 4-6 day area..

IMO that is the area Floridians should really be keeping their eyes on.....for several reasons:

1) Climatologially the western Caribbean is where major October hurricanes are most likely to develop..

2) Since 1845, at least nine major hurricanes have made landfall in south Florida during October. All nine came out of the western Caribbean....NONE from the Bay of Campeche...

3) If something is indeed brewing in the western Caribbean in 6-7 days, conditions will be far more likely for intensification than the current & forecast enviroment around TS Larry...

4) Also, a week from now...anything in the area from Jamaica to south of Cuba will have a much better chance of coming NW/NNW into the SE Gulf of Mexico and then N to NE across southern Florida or the Keys...

Besides, my great uncle is named Larry....and he's very mild. I knew a girl in school named Mindy, and she was mean

God forbid we get hurricane Nicholas....that's my nephew's name, and he's a big boy (his nickname is "Bamm-Bamm" ...and he's an expert at destroying property

[GulfBreezer]

LOL Perry!! Too funny but I love your logic behind the names!!

[Aimless]

I agree that the Caribbean is what we need to watch next.

[john186292]

JOE B?Newbie seeks enlightenment.
Who is this mysterious personage, and why should we pay attention to his verbal output? Is he at NHC?
LOL

[JetMaxx]

Joe B = Joe Bastardi, tropical weather expert at Accu-Weather.com.

Some folks swear by his analysis....some swear at him.
I've never been that impressed with JB's forecasting ability.....but he is fun to read.

[Steve]

Most people type Joe B because his last name (bastardi) often gets censored (not on this forum) by auto cuss-blocks. He's a real intense meteorolgist at Accuweather who used to provide a free daily column and streaming videos on the tropics, the long range and clash of models. Last fall, he joined Accuweather's pay service, so you either pay $14/month to get his services or less per month with an annual subscription.

He gets into a bit of trouble because he'll note almost every possibility in the tropics. Some people say he wischasts or tries to make something out of nothing, but he's phenominal with pattern recognition stuff. For instance, two weeks ago he said watch the southern Gulf/bay of Campeche for development toward the end of the current amplification period. Recall anyone else saying that? He showed the pieces to the puzzle as they appeared on the field. On Tuesday, he said it would form into a hurricane and would likely kick out NE after intensification.

Many people dog him, some with valid reasons. Some people don't like the Accuweather company because of the way they mistreat graduate mets with $20k jobs. Others don't like him because he's bold. Others still try to find any chink in his armor to trash him, when they themselves can't hold his jock. Others still take him for what he's worth, another WWW tool on the tropics to be consulted and understood for what he is. And then some parrot and hang on his every word echoing his forecasts with their own.

I'm in the middle. I do pay $14.95/month during tropical season for his expertise. I'll be dumping the service at the end of the month until next June. It's well worth my dollars for heads-ups and also some of his insight into teleconnections and goings-on in other parts of the world that may affect/portend the Tropical Atlantic. Sometimes he has a way of explaining stuff that after reading, you wonder why you didn't see it first. And he also provides a necessary check and balance to the TPC/HNC when things smell a little fishy.

In any event, he's a lightning rod for controversial posts as some people hate him and others love him. There are few better overall. I read and watched him for a couple of years free, but when he hit Lili and Isidore from so far out when everyone else was talking circles, I had to give him a 2nd look.

Steve

[john186292]

WOW, great answer!
Q. amplification period definition?
All in all, i now feel like i know the Joe b situation well. Also the accuweather situation...twenty K INDEED. HMMMMmmmmm. cheapskates. Who owns accuweather?
Does Joe see Larry wind for precious n.orleans? Amount?
Again, great answer. Glad you are on the board. Amazing how the net creates contact from Metairie to Lower Algiers, via some hard disk in a server in a warehouse up in ..?... New Jersey i guess.

[JCT777]

Steve - that is the best write-up about Joe Bastardi that I have ever read! I kind of feel the same way you do, only I don't pay for his service (I am a cheapskate, hehe). If I did, I would likely do so for the winter months - since he is so good at pattern recognition and will give every possible scenario about why there may or may not be a winter storm in the coming weeks. Anyway, I think he does a good job and it will serve a reader well to understand the difference between him discussing possibilities vs. actually saying something WILL happen.

[Steve]

Thanks JCT. I have a pretty favorable opinion of him, but I don't hang on his every word like some. Derek Ortt has the best reason not to like what comes out of College Station. Others jump him for what he did with a storm in the early 80's or whatever. That's vitriole, pap and smear (or papsmear if you're at the GYN).

Steve

[ColdFront77]

Good discussion wxman57. Why do you think the NHC is being so noncommital? Is it to cover their butts?

A tropical system remaining [nearly] stationary and expected not to move much for at least a couple of days indicates a lot of uncertainties, thus the NHC is being noncommital is commital in a situation like this.