ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

With Harvey's outflow to the west and a trough to the north, could the upper flow be divergent enough to help in tropical formation once whatever low is there gets over Atlantic waters?

I’m curious about that as well. The euro is a bit stronger, gfs shows a weak system and cmc continues to develop it into a fairly strong system. The NAM is also picking up on development so odds for something forming off the coast of FL and heading for the NC coast some high right now.

This is been my line of thinking all along I think the 92l is going to develop right off the coast of Northeast Florida and slowly slowly move northeast up towards off the North Carolina coast, so something to watch but I think it will become at least a subtropical feature as it merges with a dissipating frontal boundary. This morning convection has blown up nicely off the West Coast of the peninsula down there. I think the broad low pressure which I've been tracking from 92L is crossing the state as we speak and it should enter into the Atlantic either sometime tonight or during Saturday.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251119
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 28 20170825
111000 2543N 09619W 6962 03063 9943 +105 +105 305046 047 046 012 00
111030 2545N 09618W 6978 03042 9939 +102 +102 302045 047 043 007 00
111100 2546N 09617W 6964 03056 9937 +102 //// 302042 046 042 007 01
111130 2547N 09615W 6968 03046 9942 +103 +103 303042 046 046 018 03
111200 2549N 09614W 6967 03042 9944 +101 +101 303037 042 048 015 00
111230 2550N 09612W 6968 03040 9942 +102 +102 306039 044 047 022 00
111300 2551N 09611W 6957 03046 9933 +108 +108 310044 047 049 020 00
111330 2552N 09610W 6971 03023 9920 +112 +112 316044 047 051 010 00
111400 2554N 09608W 6968 03022 9897 +111 +111 313046 048 053 009 00
111430 2555N 09607W 6966 03015 9875 +108 //// 311051 052 051 005 01
111500 2556N 09606W 6966 03008 9864 +109 +106 307052 054 050 005 00
111530 2557N 09604W 6969 02996 9862 +105 +105 304056 057 052 011 00
111600 2559N 09603W 6963 02991 9850 +116 +116 298055 058 057 012 00
111630 2600N 09601W 6969 02975 9850 +117 +117 296054 057 059 013 00
111700 2601N 09600W 6972 02958 9837 +119 +119 296056 060 058 010 00
111730 2603N 09558W 6971 02949 9820 +112 +112 293052 053 060 008 00
111800 2604N 09557W 6966 02943 9773 +123 +112 293056 058 059 005 00
111830 2606N 09555W 6971 02919 9751 +128 +107 294062 064 060 004 00
111900 2607N 09554W 6961 02910 9714 +138 +113 295068 069 064 003 00
111930 2608N 09552W 6966 02877 9681 +143 +103 287071 075 070 005 00
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:19am CDT:

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251129
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 29 20170825
112000 2610N 09551W 6961 02844 9641 +142 +132 284078 080 073 007 03
112030 2611N 09550W 6978 02783 9594 +143 +139 282074 077 074 008 00
112100 2613N 09549W 6956 02760 9514 +170 +128 275058 074 071 007 03
112130 2615N 09548W 6974 02711 9497 +161 +121 274027 047 047 002 03
112200 2617N 09548W 6967 02708 9488 +159 +108 285009 017 027 003 00
112230 2618N 09548W 6963 02710 9479 +163 +109 132002 006 021 001 00
112300 2620N 09548W 6968 02700 9466 +176 +091 091010 012 022 001 03
112330 2621N 09546W 6976 02686 9466 +168 +122 107021 028 028 002 00
112400 2623N 09545W 6967 02697 9471 +162 +138 132053 067 056 004 03
112430 2624N 09544W 6965 02734 9509 +163 +111 139084 091 086 001 00
112500 2625N 09542W 6975 02764 9560 +156 +111 142092 095 094 002 00
112530 2626N 09541W 6957 02827 9622 +135 +126 140093 096 091 001 00
112600 2627N 09540W 6969 02845 9654 +138 +132 139094 096 088 006 00
112630 2629N 09538W 6972 02871 9730 +120 +120 140090 093 078 010 00
112700 2630N 09537W 6963 02907 9757 +114 +114 144087 089 081 011 00
112730 2631N 09535W 6965 02927 9787 +121 +121 142089 091 082 019 00
112800 2632N 09534W 6981 02917 9815 +119 +119 138092 094 081 030 03
112830 2633N 09533W 6963 02957 9831 +110 +110 138090 091 078 022 00
112900 2634N 09531W 6969 02963 9836 +113 +113 140090 091 076 016 00
112930 2636N 09530W 6966 02979 9848 +113 +113 141087 091 072 013 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:29am CDT:

[tolakram]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Emmett_Brown]

Yes, 92L looks a little more organized today, (just a little). You can see the turning on radar of WFL south of the Tampa area, and more turning off of EFL. So, there is a trough across FL. Convection is more concentrated on the W end of the trough. Now we watch to see if the whole thing wraps up. As we saw last year, storms can slowly organize over FL, so land interaction does not necessarily preclude development. A couple of models still develop 92L, mostly the CMC, continuing to show a threat up the eastern seaboard. This will be a slow mover, so heavy rains still possible.

[caneman]

Looks to be trying to develop now. Also looks like Harvey no longer has influence on it. Anyone know what shear is,right now over 92?

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Convection is much more better now. However looking at shear map there are bad days ahead for 92l, because there is a wall of strong shear in front of this invest's path. Would it survive?

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Looks to be trying to develop now. Also looks like Harvey no longer has influence on it. Anyone know what shear is,right now over 92?

20 kts southeasterly shear. Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom

[Patrick99]

Seems to be consolidating convection a little better, but perhaps that actually means less rain for those of us over here on the SE coast? I don't have a rain gauge, but I don't know that *that* much rain has really fallen, here in the Gables/S. Miami/Pinecrest corridor at least.

[tgenius]

The convection on the SW of FL I believe is going to make it's way back east, so those rainy predictions for today may hold some weight. Nothing like what Harvey is going to do to Texas

[jlauderdal]

Unders looking real good, fll and mia need big totals today and it appears thats unlikely


UPDATE

MAIN UPDATE IS TO ADJUST POPS AND WX FOR NEW RUNS OF THE HI-RES
MODELS. THIS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND WHERE THE HIGHER POPS
ARE THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH NOW LOOK TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND IN THE LAKE REGION. ALSO, REDUCED THE THUNDERSTORM
CATEGORY AS MOST OF THE COVERAGE WILL BE SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

[nativefloridian]

Would like an opinion/feedback on whether or not it's reasonable to think that 92L's blob of convection percolating off the Southwest Florida coast will begin to consolidate more and develop into a minimal TS. It's been hanging on throughout the long trek and IMO, looks better today than it did yesterday now that Harvey has moved further away. Granted, throughout 92L's life, its looks have fluctuated from decent to a hot mess.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The shear map on the previous page shows that shear has decreased to 20 knots over 92L compared to 30 knots yesterday. The pocket of 20 knot shear is a circle right on top and just west of 92L. Could 92L be attempting to create an anticyclone overhead?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Morning everyone,

As some here have posted with the exception of some areas in Miami not that much rain has fallen. But the mass of convection off the SW coast if it does move east I could see our area getting a large and heavy amount of rain today.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Morning everyone,

As some here have posted with the exception of some areas in Miami not that much rain has fallen. But the mass of convection off the SW coast if it does move east I could see our area getting a large and heavy amount of rain today.

Euro shows the center of 92L crossing the state tonight and tomorrow- so I would think the heavy storms along and south of the center currently along the SW FL coast would move east into south Florida later today and tonight. The Southwesterly flow over south Florida should also favor the development of bands of Rain and thunderstorms enhanced by daytime heating and the sea breezes. These bands should develop over the western and central parts of south Florida and move east towards Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and the rest of SE Florida this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

947 mbs.

URNT15 KNHC 251309
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 39 20170825
130000 2626N 09557W 6972 02707 9492 +159 +116 057013 018 028 001 00
130030 2625N 09556W 6968 02703 9470 +173 +096 015005 011 023 001 03
130100 2624N 09554W 6968 02697 9466 +169 +121 241011 016 023 002 00
130130 2623N 09552W 6964 02702 9474 +160 +132 218030 038 039 003 00
130200 2623N 09550W 6967 02713 9499 +147 +137 207054 064 063 005 00
130230 2623N 09548W 6961 02749 9543 +147 +146 203082 090 081 010 00
130300 2623N 09546W 6989 02758 9592 +140 +139 196092 094 083 008 00
130330 2623N 09544W 6961 02833 9632 +135 +133 191091 093 083 006 00
130400 2623N 09542W 6969 02851 9677 +126 +117 187089 092 082 006 00
130430 2623N 09540W 6973 02871 9700 +128 +110 185088 089 085 006 00
130500 2623N 09538W 6965 02899 9730 +124 +122 185085 086 085 006 00
130530 2624N 09537W 6952 02930 9784 +122 +122 184095 104 083 016 03
130600 2624N 09535W 6973 02922 9818 +109 +109 183098 101 074 017 00
130630 2624N 09533W 6963 02954 9818 +101 +099 184096 098 074 010 00
130700 2624N 09531W 6970 02962 9830 +099 +097 184094 096 068 007 00
130730 2624N 09529W 6963 02982 9834 +106 +097 184089 092 065 007 00
130800 2624N 09528W 6969 02986 9853 +101 +095 185085 087 062 007 00
130830 2624N 09526W 6970 02995 9874 +096 +092 184083 085 057 009 00
130900 2624N 09524W 6967 03007 9876 +101 +084 185080 082 054 007 00
130930 2624N 09522W 6966 03017 9888 +097 +088 185077 078 054 004 00

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:09am CDT: