KATE #27 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 020832
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 4.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THE HURRICANE IS HEADING TOWARD WARMER WATERS. THEREFORE...
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COULD BEGIN.

KATE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW KATE TO
TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL TURNS
THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD SOONER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 30.1N 43.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 29.8N 45.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 29.8N 48.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 30.0N 50.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 30.5N 52.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 32.5N 56.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 36.0N 58.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W 70 KT