ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Someone a lot smarter than me sees continued improvement.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/900845641752039425

[gfsperpendicular]

The central pressure might have down to 970 mb or even lower. Let's wait for the next 23z recon data.

Hot tower right in the NW eyewall. Is the 3500 CAPE air wrapping into the core?

[lrak]

The long range radar out of Brownsville makes it look like it's moving WNW. Is that because of the angle its catching the tops which may be moving WNW but the LLC is still moving NNW?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

My guess is same intensity or just a bit stronger. It's been fighting some dry air and lost a lot of convection before rebuilding it.

I really dont think its dry air. I have been looking at whatever data I can find and there is nothing that indicates dry air. to me it looks like normal convective patterns when you have large hot towers and a developing cores.

[SunnyThoughts]

My guess is about 972.. 90 maybe 95 mph at the beginning of the mission.

[South Texas Storms]

The long range radar out of Brownsville makes it look like it's moving WNW. Is that because of the angle its catching the tops which may be moving WNW but the LLC is still moving NNW?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

No I think the center has generally been tracking more WNW over the past few hours. Looks that way on satellite too.

[KWT]

The long range radar out of Brownsville makes it look like it's moving WNW. Is that because of the angle its catching the tops which may be moving WNW but the LLC is still moving NNW?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

It does look on the satellites imagery its been averaging a shade over WNW over the last couple of hours, and indeed the models did show this would happen, they then lift it near NW/NNW in the final 5-10hrs before landfall.

Aric, looked like a dry moat caused by subsidence from the hot towers blowing up in the inner eyewall. As I said eventually a big blow-up will hold and that moat will be filled in to give it a real classic high end hurricane look.

[1900hurricane]

The most recent F-16 pass makes me think that Harvey is nearly a lock for an eventual major hurricane.

[SunnyThoughts]

Saw a pic on another site where the lightning is just crazy in the eyewall.

[Javlin]

Why is Harvey so flat on the W/side? what wall is out there?I only see what I think is a weak ULL in Mexico to the W but then something is moving across the SW also?I am terrible at spotting High Pressure!

[KWT]

Saw a pic on another site where the lightning is just crazy in the eyewall.

Yeah I saw that as well, impressive blow-up rotating around the western side of the eyewall, my guess is it will be rotating into the eastern quadrant as recon arrives.

[bohaiboy]

There are indeed rig and platform evacuations in the western GOM. https://www.dallasnews.com/business/ene ... orm-harvey

[jlauderdal]

The most recent F-16 pass makes me think that Harvey is nearly a lock for an eventual major hurricane.

They are flying f-16s into harvey?

[SunnyThoughts]

There haven't been many times in the past few years where we needed recon constantly in a system, This is one time we surely do. Please please pleaseeee let the planes have NO com problems or mechanical problems. Hats off to those guys and gals!

[alan1961]

Space station goes right over Harvey

[ROCK]

any one have Jeff Linders email update?

[ronyan]

They are flying f-16s into harvey?

Fighters are used to knock out those hot towers before they get too strong.

[Kingarabian]

Overshooting tops obscuring the eye:

[Hurricane Andrew]

The most recent F-16 pass makes me think that Harvey is nearly a lock for an eventual major hurricane.

They are flying f-16s into harvey?

As a military nerd, this is the exact same thing I thought, lol. I would hate to fly a little jet fighter into a hurricane, lol.

[KWT]

Overshooting tops obscuring the eye:

A real big one has just gone up on the NW eyewall that is firing alot of lightning as well, this maybe the one that kicks start the next stage of rapid strengthening and takes us down into the 940s in the next 6-9hrs.