Texas Summer 2017

[DonWrk]

I know this is sort of off topic from Harvey but man for us up here in far North Texas it has been a non stop heavy rain all morning. Close to 7" 3 miles southwest of my place.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS gives 20" of rain to Austin. Excuse for a moment while I go vomit.

[Tireman4]

The 12z GFS gives 20" of rain to Austin. Excuse for a moment while I go vomit.

Neva happen Porta. The Austin rainshield will hold up and you will get 1/2 inch..tee hee....tell that to 2001's edition of Don. He never lived to tell the story..LOL....

[weatherdude1108]

In reference to Porta's comment, this is a concerning map!

[aggiecutter]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.

[dhweather]

NHC now predicts Harvey to be a MAJOR hurricane at landfall.

LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS !!!!!

[gboudx]

That precip forecast map has shifted larger amounts more northwesterly and expanded. I still don't think we'll get much here, especially with a more intense system and increased subsidence. Depends on how far inland it goes.

[TheProfessor]

So uh, let's not talk about the 12z Euro.

[gboudx]

Ok. My lips and fingers are sealed. Of course, I haven't seen it, so no clue what we don't want to talk about.

Edit: nevermind, I see it on the Model thread in the Tropics forum. I haven't seen what the upper air pattern is forecasted for why the Euro would crawl it along the coast and then into La.

[Brent]

I can't even imagine how bad the 12z Euro would be. What's really scary is it's shown the same general idea for 3 or 4 runs now...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The 12z GFS gives 20" of rain to Austin. Excuse for a moment while I go vomit.

Having lived through a few serious flash floods in Westlake Hills, the thought of 20" of rain across all of Austin is downright terrifying. Water runs out of those rocky hills into those empty creek beds and it is shocking how fast and how high it can rise.

[starsfan65]

That precip forecast map has shifted larger amounts more northwesterly and expanded. I still don't think we'll get much here, especially with a more intense system and increased subsidence. Depends on how far inland it goes.

Increased subsidence? You never know how much we will get here.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS gives 20" of rain to Austin. Excuse for a moment while I go vomit.

Having lived through a few serious flash floods in Westlake Hills, the thought of 20" of rain across all of Austin is downright terrifying. Water runs out of those rocky hills into those empty creek beds and it is shocking how fast and how high it can rise.

Here is a point which someone knowledgeable about these things told me this morning ... the rivers and creeks downstream from Austin will already be near full or full as a result of Harvey. So, where will the water go in the Austin area when it falls? Uh, nowhere. Thus, flooding.

[gboudx]

That precip forecast map has shifted larger amounts more northwesterly and expanded. I still don't think we'll get much here, especially with a more intense system and increased subsidence. Depends on how far inland it goes.

Increased subsidence? You never know how much we will get here.

Stronger hurricanes have stronger subsidence. All that rapidly rising air has to descend somewhere. The metroplex may be far enough away, and be in the subsidence zone. We've seen it before, most notably with Rita. Things can change though, and it could move further inland, or expand and become larger. We'll just have to see. But as of now, I'm not expecting much other than some winds with a northerly/easterly component, and little precip.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I think in DFW we need to be prepared for evacuees more than anything. Hotel rates are reasonable especially in the suburbs. I've been encouraging folks to come up this way

[newtotex]

I feel bad for Corpus if that's where it ends up coming onshore. I think most of the city should be ok from really bad storm surge, however, wind is going to be another story especially if it makes landfall at peak intensity. People on here that have driven through Corpus (the actual city) should know that the majority of housing is older and doesn't look like it could withstand a major hurricane, not quite sure about the newer areas, though

[aggiecutter]

Looking at the latest satellite view, it seems as though dry air is getting entrained in Harvey. This might prevent it strengthening anymore in the short term.

[labradorDad]

Looking at the latest satellite view, it seems as though dry air is getting entrained in Harvey. This might prevent it strengthening anymore in the short term.

That is not dry air entrainment. That is just a moat. Low and mid levels very moist. No dry air.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just a heads up.
[/url]

[Texas Snowman]

I know this is sort of off topic from Harvey but man for us up here in far North Texas it has been a non stop heavy rain all morning. Close to 7" 3 miles southwest of my place.

The Austin College Weather Station in central Grayson County received 2.00 today, which takes them to 16.95 for the month of August.

North Texas Regional Airport had 1.01 inches this morning, which is about what I had at my house in Denison.

Unbelievable month of August, unbelievable summer.