ATL: HARVEY - Models

[tolakram]

[hohnywx]

This is around 981 ... gfs 12z point is 993. That means gfs probably even underdoing intensity by 12mb.

12z is 7 AM...not the time when the model began running.

[hd44]

Gfs likely has this landfalling as cat 4 taking in the current intensity. Just took a look at NHC 12z point it was 986 mb... still was 7 mb lower. Looking very bad storm right now.

[KWT]

06z GFS had 95kts with pressure of 940mbs on its 06z run, so I suspect the winds would be aorund the same ballpark.

The traditional 940/high 930s = cat-4 may not apply here, this maybe more like Alex which had pressure of 946mbs and winds of 110mph. Just before we all get too carried away about just how deep the GFS is now going with Harvey (though obviously, that is still a strong cane!)

[tolakram]

Still inland

[Nimbus]

Has the forecast skill of the models changed that much for stall scenarios like this?

30 years ago they predicted Elena would make landfall in Tampa Florida but it stalled for several days as a pattern of troughs and ridges rotated around the polar vortex and eventually turned back west.

This is a super complex forecast, can't see how it won't be a disaster in Texas with a long stall.

Also beyond Texas if Harvey stalls closer to the coast by just a few miles it would make a huge difference in pulling moisture in off the gulf and maintaining strength.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Is there still the chance of harvey going back out to sea and making a second landfall on the eastern portionnof the gulf? Have a good friend in MS right now

[Frank P]

H108 very close to the coast

[Frank P]

H114 drifts back SW away from coast, basically stationary still

[tolakram]

Still inland. Rainfall is going to be horrible.

[tolakram]

All of south Texas has to be concerned about massive flooding. Hopefully this map is overdone.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=604

Almost all of SE Texas > 16" by Hour 120. I think some of that will probably end up being conservative. What is also extreme was the 12z NAM 3km which takes it down to 873mb in 24 hours. While there is literally zero chance of that happening, it was the one suite of models that didn't have a stretched out developing tropical storm today. And even in the extreme runs of the last couple of days, I don't think it ever got down to 873mb. So it's just food for thought as the globals are now hinting at 940's that the trends may be stronger.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If this run and the euro still show the loop happening and this moving east back out into the gulf and then into LA, I would be inclined to tell people to start getting prepared. Not saying it will happen but as fast as this is organizing now, the possibility looks like it is there for it to happen again once back over the gulf.

[stormreader]

If this run and the euro still show the loop happening and this moving east back out into the gulf and then into LA, I would be inclined to tell people to start getting prepared. Not saying it will happen but as fast as this is organizing now, the possibility looks like it is there for it to happen again once back over the gulf.

I have not been an advocate or believer in the loop. However, waiting on the next Euro run. If it continues with a "loop" confirmation, I think we have to start thinking in those terms. Getting too close to landfall, too much consistency to ignore. Not saying its a definite, but time to prepare.

[Frank P]

now moving up the TX coastline.. my word, the entire coast of TX will be inundated with copious amounts of rain...

[tolakram]

Still inland, moving toward LA.

[Frank P]

If this run and the euro still show the loop happening and this moving east back out into the gulf and then into LA, I would be inclined to tell people to start getting prepared. Not saying it will happen but as fast as this is organizing now, the possibility looks like it is there for it to happen again once back over the gulf.

I have not been an advocate or believer in the loop. However, waiting on the next Euro run. If it continues with a "loop" confirmation, I think we have to start thinking in those terms. Getting too close to landfall, too much consistency to ignore. Not saying its a definite, but time to prepare.

Through H174 per the GFS Harvey never makes it back out into the Gulf...

[tolakram]

The amount of rain is simply jaw dropping. At this point out and back in would be a better solution than this.

[Ivanhater]

Literally on the coast for a week...with this complex set up..a few miles it is in the Gulf....Eastern fetch pounding central gulf Coast now

[Ivanhater]

Skirting east along central gulf Coast now