ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241106
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 14 20170824
105700 2436N 09418W 8429 01523 0046 +163 +149 070025 026 029 002 00
105730 2435N 09416W 8429 01523 //// +159 //// 060024 026 027 002 01
105800 2434N 09415W 8436 01515 //// +161 //// 054025 026 026 001 01
105830 2433N 09414W 8432 01522 //// +161 //// 060025 027 027 001 01
105900 2432N 09413W 8430 01521 //// +163 //// 059023 024 027 001 01
105930 2431N 09411W 8429 01520 0044 +164 +153 057021 021 027 000 00
110000 2430N 09410W 8430 01518 0044 +161 +154 054021 021 025 001 00
110030 2428N 09409W 8431 01517 0045 +160 +148 057022 022 026 000 00
110100 2427N 09408W 8430 01513 0043 +160 +147 060023 024 025 001 00
110130 2426N 09406W 8429 01520 0044 +160 +145 060024 024 027 000 00
110200 2425N 09405W 8430 01518 0042 +164 +143 059023 024 027 001 00
110230 2424N 09404W 8429 01517 0038 +167 +142 060024 024 026 001 00
110300 2423N 09403W 8429 01517 0037 +170 +141 060025 026 026 001 00
110330 2422N 09401W 8426 01517 0036 +170 +139 061026 026 025 001 00
110400 2421N 09400W 8430 01513 0034 +170 +138 060026 027 025 001 00
110430 2419N 09359W 8429 01513 0031 +170 +137 057027 027 026 001 00
110500 2418N 09358W 8429 01513 0031 +175 +136 053026 026 028 001 00
110530 2417N 09356W 8429 01510 0029 +175 +138 056027 028 029 001 00
110600 2416N 09355W 8428 01511 0026 +175 +138 053027 027 029 001 00
110630 2415N 09354W 8428 01511 0024 +176 +134 048027 028 030 001 00
$$
;

[jlauderdal]

I just don't see 92L doing much other than becoming a weak TS at best, models keep showing northerly 20-25 knots shear through its lifespan while near FL.

yes, its the rain that could be the big story not a wind producer

picked up 1.3 inches in an hour this morning

I just hope people do not think that these rains are associated with Harvey lol.
Is not too often that you see 2 tropical systems in the GOM, not that 92L is an organized system like Harvey but completely separate.

definitely, they are just far enough apart to not be really interacting with each other

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241116
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 15 20170824
110700 2414N 09353W 8429 01509 0024 +180 +128 042028 029 029 002 00
110730 2413N 09351W 8429 01507 0021 +180 +123 036030 031 029 002 00
110800 2411N 09350W 8429 01506 0019 +180 +128 038031 032 030 002 00
110830 2410N 09349W 8430 01504 0018 +177 +139 041031 032 029 003 00
110900 2409N 09348W 8430 01502 0016 +177 +144 040031 031 030 003 00
110930 2408N 09346W 8429 01504 0015 +179 +143 040031 031 032 002 00
111000 2407N 09345W 8430 01499 0013 +177 +143 039031 031 032 002 00
111030 2406N 09344W 8429 01500 0013 +176 +141 038031 032 032 001 00
111100 2404N 09342W 8430 01496 0011 +175 +140 038033 033 032 001 00
111130 2403N 09341W 8428 01496 0008 +179 +129 034032 033 034 001 00
111200 2402N 09340W 8426 01496 0006 +181 +124 033034 034 033 002 00
111230 2401N 09338W 8429 01493 0007 +178 +131 029034 035 033 005 00
111300 2359N 09337W 8429 01491 0006 +174 +142 028035 036 035 005 00
111330 2358N 09336W 8426 01493 0002 +176 +143 026038 038 035 006 03
111400 2357N 09334W 8429 01489 0006 +169 +142 026040 040 036 008 00
111430 2357N 09333W 8432 01484 0003 +170 +139 025039 041 038 008 03
111500 2356N 09331W 8427 01488 0005 +163 +143 021040 041 040 007 03
111530 2355N 09329W 8428 01484 0001 +164 +157 020042 043 037 008 03
111600 2354N 09328W 8431 01479 9996 +167 +165 017043 044 039 007 00
111630 2353N 09326W 8426 01482 9992 +168 +164 017045 045 041 006 00
$$

[caneman]

It's worth watching if it sits. You never know. Could be a.big rain producer.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241126
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 16 20170824
111700 2353N 09325W 8430 01474 9985 +172 +165 014045 046 043 007 03
111730 2352N 09323W 8431 01471 9983 +171 +162 012043 045 044 014 00
111800 2351N 09321W 8429 01465 9998 +157 +157 011044 049 046 018 00
111830 2351N 09319W 8428 01463 9988 +168 +168 014051 054 048 015 00
111900 2350N 09318W 8429 01457 9981 +169 +169 013046 052 048 015 00
111930 2350N 09316W 8424 01459 9976 +171 +171 024039 041 044 021 03
112000 2349N 09314W 8429 01448 9968 +175 +175 034036 038 048 028 00
112030 2349N 09313W 8424 01449 9960 +179 +179 039040 044 051 036 00
112100 2349N 09311W 8422 01437 9950 +180 +180 048042 046 054 031 03
112130 2348N 09310W 8430 01431 9945 +174 //// 045037 041 045 011 05
112200 2347N 09308W 8426 01428 //// +175 //// 037035 038 034 002 01
112230 2346N 09307W 8431 01416 //// +181 //// 029034 035 036 002 01
112300 2345N 09305W 8431 01407 9899 +189 +186 024036 037 034 001 00
112330 2344N 09304W 8430 01401 9886 +197 +190 020027 035 034 001 00
112400 2344N 09302W 8427 01394 9871 +210 +189 008023 025 033 002 00
112430 2343N 09300W 8428 01387 9866 +204 +188 354019 024 029 001 03
112500 2343N 09259W 8428 01379 9862 +200 +182 356007 013 017 000 00
112530 2343N 09257W 8429 01376 9856 +199 +182 082005 008 019 002 00
112600 2344N 09255W 8430 01367 9853 +199 +189 139015 019 019 000 03
112630 2343N 09254W 8430 01375 9855 +201 +186 176028 033 036 002 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241136
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 17 20170824
112700 2342N 09253W 8425 01381 9864 +191 +182 188039 042 039 002 00
112730 2341N 09251W 8427 01386 9873 +189 +180 194048 052 044 002 00
112800 2340N 09250W 8428 01393 9882 +190 +173 198054 059 045 002 00
112830 2339N 09249W 8442 01389 9891 +191 +177 207055 060 044 001 00
112900 2338N 09248W 8424 01423 9916 +180 +178 205060 062 043 003 01
112930 2337N 09247W 8425 01429 9921 +188 +172 203060 062 046 005 00
113000 2336N 09246W 8434 01434 9944 +176 +171 206059 060 049 009 00
113030 2335N 09245W 8426 01449 9958 +169 +166 207057 059 048 009 03
113100 2334N 09244W 8429 01454 9948 +199 +151 208055 057 047 008 00
113130 2333N 09243W 8430 01459 9957 +195 +147 215052 054 045 005 03
113200 2332N 09242W 8427 01468 9968 +187 +146 215050 052 043 006 03
113230 2331N 09241W 8427 01471 9977 +179 +148 215047 049 040 007 00
113300 2330N 09239W 8429 01473 9981 +178 +148 214044 045 039 006 00
113330 2328N 09238W 8429 01479 9987 +179 +148 210039 043 039 006 00
113400 2327N 09237W 8430 01480 9992 +176 +146 205037 039 036 007 00
113430 2326N 09236W 8432 01482 0000 +166 +149 211036 037 034 008 00
113500 2325N 09235W 8430 01485 9993 +186 +143 208034 035 033 007 00
113530 2324N 09234W 8432 01487 9994 +190 +137 215031 033 033 004 00
113600 2323N 09232W 8426 01495 9999 +187 +147 213029 031 031 003 00
113630 2322N 09231W 8433 01488 0000 +185 +159 209027 028 031 002 00
$$

[tgenius]

Looks like the under might be toast with this flood watch. That said still might squeeze under when all is said and done!

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the under might be toast with this flood watch. That said still might squeeze under when all is said and done!

maybe, will have to see if all this morning convection puts a stop to anything this afternoon, still have tomorrow..mia and fll are racking up the totals...i have had 1.71 since 6 am and will easily go over 2 based on what is coming in from dade...i predict over 3 by 10 am..sw florida in for big totals, looks like a low is trying to get going there, maybe a shot at a td in the next day

[SFLcane]

Keywest radar does indeed look interesting this morning.

[Frank P]

Keywest radar does indeed look interesting this morning.

Ok, now it looks like we have a developing low in the extreme SE GOM... interesting to see what impact it will have, if any, on the future forecast of Harvey... could it pump up more of the ridge to the NE of Harvey thus preventing the loop de loop that some models forecast?

[ronjon]

Keywest radar does indeed look interesting this morning.

Ok, now it looks like we have a developing low in the extreme SE GOM... interesting to see what impact it will have, if any, on the future forecast of Harvey... could it pump up more of the ridge to the NE of Harvey thus preventing the loop de loop that some models forecast?

Or would it weaken the western edge of the subtropical ridge allowing Harvey to stay just offshore Tx? Of course, this is all conjecture as northerly shear will likely keep any developing low in check in the eastern GOM.

[ronjon]

Pulaski shoals buoy west of Key West shows slowly falling pressure the last two days. Looks like lowest pressure is around 1010 mb or 29.80 in. Also showing a west wind.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=plsf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Here near FIU we had some rain over night, but nothing to really to indicate we will reach 4 or 5".

[JPmia]

yeah at my house in Fort Lauderdale barometer shows pressure has been slowly falling last few days. Down to 1009mb this morning.

[jlauderdal]

Here near FIU we had some rain over night, but nothing to really to indicate we will reach 4 or 5".

I have had 2.7 this morning and still coming down, convection developing


atmosphere is worked over for now, lets see if we get development later today, this could be it until tomorrow for bigger totals but i suspect we get development this afternoon

[Miami Storm Tracker]

At least your slowly working your way to your 6.5"

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we have a broad, developing circulation in the extreme SE GOM. Pretty evident just northwest of Key West this morning.

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

UPDATE

UPDATED FORECAST TO BACK OFF ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE CERTAINLY IS STILL A
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING MORE ALONG
THE TROPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO, THE EFFICIENCY OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE
RAIN HAS BEEN HIGH. THIS REINFORCES THE THOUGHT BEHIND THE FLOOD
WATCH, WHICH A URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY. ALSO, ADJUSTED POPS TO BE LOWER IN THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING, WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE NEW POP FORECAST MAINLY WAS UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF
THE SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES MODELS, WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

[northjaxpro]

Northerly shear will keep this system in check. I think we may get a weak TS from this in a couple of days or over the weekend while hovering near the FL peninsula..Best chance for any organized development will be on the Atlantic side father away from Harvey's outflow imo.

Rain of course is the chief threat from this system.

[tolakram]