Texas Summer 2017

[Texas Snowman]

Hate to even bring this up. Don't think this will happen but can't help but wonder the way morning trends are going...

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@garrettbastardi -- HIRES Nam is a tad nuts. 880mb 175kts at 850. Jeez.

[Ntxw]

Hate to even bring this up. Don't think this will happen but can't help but wonder the way morning trends are going...

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@garrettbastardi -- HIRES Nam is a tad nuts. 880mb 175kts at 850. Jeez.

Yeah that seems a little crazy. Patricia and Wilma (outside of WPAC systems) is probably the only cases this side of the world to see that kind of scenario. Convection for Harvey isn't nearly as deep as those two. But anywhere from 940-955 seems like a good bet which is usually a major at these latitudes.

[Portastorm]

I'm sitting here looking at satellite on Harvey with my mouth open in awe. This thing is bombing out already! A MAJOR is very possible upon landfall tomorrow. I sure hope as Ntxw said that folks along the coast are heeding warnings. This is turning into a worst case scenario and the kind of thing we (I'm involved in emergency management response for the state) plan for as a worst case, a rapidly intensifying hurricane hitting the coast. And geez, I'm not even covering the inland flooding event which will also occur.

(shaking my head) ... just wow.

[Texas Snowman]

Smaller storm at the moment. That sometimes means that it won't have a tendency to weaken (as larger storms like Allen and Katrina did) when it approaches landfall, right?

[Ntxw]

Smaller storm at the moment. That sometimes means that it won't have a tendency to weaken (as larger storms like Allen and Katrina did) when it approaches landfall, right?

It likely won't weaken as it approaches because it is rapidly intensifying and will be landfalling in a relatively short time. Those other storms spent more time over water thus went through EWRC (eye replacement) fluctuating strength. Storms that RI close in live fast, strong lives till the end typically.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Port A is in some serious trouble with this track, i still think it ends up going north of the current guidance.

[Ntxw]

Cat 5 in the gulf!!! (courtesy dhweather).

No really. nature is stunning, but deadly



We can probably expect some short term gas hikes pretty soon. Given our state's status as an oil/gas producing state with offshore oil rigs and refineries having to shut down.

[weatherdude1108]

It's been almost a decade since we've seen something like this sitting in the gulf aimed at Texas. This is going to get real bad really quick for the coast. This is no longer just a rain issue, but wind, surge, and everything else for them.

That looks menacing! That Gulf water right there is lukewarm bath water, just feeding it!

[horselattitudesfarm]

Man that has grown quick!

[TheProfessor]

I'm really concerned about Corpus Christi right now. I've been in contact with my family there and they should be leaving soon if they haven't yet. My dad's side of the family has a lot of history their, my great grandfather was born in Corpus back in 1915(died in 2011) and there is a lot of evidence that my family ties back to Native Americans that lived in that are in the 19th and perhaps the 18th century.

[weatherdude1108]

I know this is older news now, but the NHC discussion had a blurb at the end that caught my eye.

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been sampling
Harvey during the past few hours. Both aircraft indicate that
Harvey is becoming better organized and the central pressure is
falling. An average of the flight-level winds and the SFMR yield an
initial intensity of 40 kt. There are some unconfirmed reports of
stronger winds at flight-level to the northeast of the center,
but I am waiting for the plane to go back to that area for
confirmation.

It appears that the environment has finally become favorable
and all of the guidance calls for intensification. In fact, the
Rapid Intensification Index is up to 45 percent. The current NHC
forecast is a little lower than the model consensus to maintain
continuity from the previous advisory. If the current intensity
trend continues, the winds will have to be adjusted upward
in the next advisory.

The initial motion is toward the north or 360 degrees at 9 kt.
However, this is a combination of motion and reformation under the
convection. Harvey is already on the western edge of the
subtropical ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the
Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will steer the cyclone on a general
northwest to north-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. Once
Harvey makes landfall in Texas, most of the global models predict
that the steering currents will collapse and Harvey will begin to
meander over Texas and perhaps will move back into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico.

[Texas Snowman]

I hesitate to post this, certainly don't need to ramp up an already intense and quickly developing situation.

But yesterday I was thinking a depression, a tropical storm today, a hurricane overnight, and a strengthening hurricane tomorrow leading up to landfall.

Today, I'm honestly thinking that given what has happened overnight, current model forecasts, and the environmental conditions that are present, that the unthinkable is possible.

A real live Cat 5 in the Gulf land falling on the Texas Coast.

EDIT: I don't expect that to happen, but I think the possibility does at least exist.

[Brent]

Well that escalated quickly

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I have to say I'm worried. This thing is growing stronger than we thought.

Preparing for Cat 2 and I hope that is all.

[longhornweather]

Based on what it looks like now, Austin and northern metro area will get some rain but nothing too significant. However, if it moves just a bit further north before stalling or heading back to the gulf, it looks like it could change the rain totals and flooding concerns quite a bit. Is it possible that this happens or is it pretty much guaranteed to stop well south of Austin?

[Portastorm]

Based on what it looks like now, Austin and northern metro area will get some rain but nothing too significant. However, if it moves just a bit further north before stalling or heading back to the gulf, it looks like it could change the rain totals and flooding concerns quite a bit. Is it possible that this happens or is it pretty much guaranteed to stop well south of Austin?

No offense but where are you getting your information from?! I call 5-10" of rain with tropical storm force winds and the possible of tropical tornadoes pretty damn significant.

[Portastorm]

I have to say I'm worried. This thing is growing stronger than we thought.

Preparing for Cat 2 and I hope that is all.

I've been thinking about you, buddy. Be safe. You're in the crosshairs and Harv could end up a major before it hits you. I'm concerned for your community and the short amount of time which exists to evacuate.

[Brent]

NHC forecasting the 12 year major streak to end

Wow

[longhornweather]

Based on what it looks like now, Austin and northern metro area will get some rain but nothing too significant. However, if it moves just a bit further north before stalling or heading back to the gulf, it looks like it could change the rain totals and flooding concerns quite a bit. Is it possible that this happens or is it pretty much guaranteed to stop well south of Austin?

No offense but where are you getting your information from?! I call 5-10" of rain with tropical storm force winds and the possible of tropical tornadoes pretty damn significant.

Like I said, I am in the northern metro area (Georgetown). Seems like most of the graphics I have seen on the local forecasts have showed rain totals of under 5". While that's a good amount of rain, it seems that the potential could be quite a bit worse, if the storm moves north a bit. I was just wondering if that seems possible at this point or if it is pretty much locked in to stop south. Sorry Porta, didn't want to ruffle any feathers or downplay the significance. Most of the time I just follow these boards and don't post a whole lot.

[Portastorm]

Based on what it looks like now, Austin and northern metro area will get some rain but nothing too significant. However, if it moves just a bit further north before stalling or heading back to the gulf, it looks like it could change the rain totals and flooding concerns quite a bit. Is it possible that this happens or is it pretty much guaranteed to stop well south of Austin?

No offense but where are you getting your information from?! I call 5-10" of rain with tropical storm force winds and the possible of tropical tornadoes pretty damn significant.

Like I said, I am in the northern metro area (Georgetown). Seems like most of the graphics I have seen on the local forecasts have showed rain totals of under 5". While that's a good amount of rain, it seems that the potential could be quite a bit worse, if the storm moves north a bit. I was just wondering if that seems possible at this point or if it is pretty much locked in to stop south. Sorry Porta, didn't want to ruffle any feathers or downplay the significance. Most of the time I just follow these boards and don't post a whole lot.

It's cool and if my response was harsh, you have my apology. I'm just concerned right now about anyone south of a Laredo to Austin to Lufkin line taking Harvey not too seriously. As someone who works in emergency management those kinds of things get me going. I think the track of Harvey still may have some "curveballs." Our area weather could be better or worse depending on that.

You're a longtime member and a good poster when you do post. Please don't take my intial response too serious.