Texas Summer 2017

[Ntxw]

It's a battle between building ridge out west and incoming trough as it nears the coast. It will hook east/ne etc eventually once it connects with the new trof. But the slower that is to happen the more w/nw inland it goes initially.

[JDawg512]

I just hope to get 2 to 3 inches at this point. Only had a couple of sprinkles earlier but that was it, now there's storms to the southeast and it rained to the north but we were left high and dry. I'm gonna go ahead and do a little watering tonight just in case this weekend ends up being dry.

[JDawg512]

Feels like the front came through, winds are light but out of the north and it feels a little cooler or at any rate lower humidity and dew points, can hear the traffic on 290/71. Probably will play a role in how far Harvey gets.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS landfalls Harvey near Baffin Bay just south of Corpus. Of course in doing so it also ends the US official major hurricane drought since 2005, and the Texas hurricane drought since Ike at the same time

[JDawg512]

I spoke too soon. Its raining so I went out to shut off the sprinklers lol. Maybe it was my sprinklers that initiated the rain lolol.

[Cpv17]

0z GFS parks itself over TX for 6 days with two different landfalls. The first around Baffin Bay/Corpus Christi area and then another one around Matagorda. Widespread totals of 10-30 inches over a huge area.

[Texas Snowman]

Recent model runs this morning have definitely raised some eyebrows.

[Texas Snowman]

@JeffLindner1 -- Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane on the TX coast near Port Aransas should be underway #houwx #txwx

[Texas Snowman]

Hurricane warnings from Port Mansfield to Matagorda

[Texas Snowman]

NHC: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Matagorda to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch has been issued from south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

[Texas Snowman]

Virtually the entire Texas Gulf Coast is under either a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning...

[Texas Snowman]

Unless I'm missing something, overnight trends into this morning include:

- much more organized storm on satellite presentation
- While it remains to be seen if anything like this verifies, latest GFS model run takes Harvey towards Cat 3 or higher status at landfall
- Corpus Christi/Port Aransas appears to be latest model spot for landfall

[Texas Snowman]

And meanwhile, in North Texas...

-----

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
455 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

TXC085-097-121-181-241300-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0224.170824T0955Z-170824T1300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Denton TX-Collin TX-Cooke TX-Grayson TX-
455 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...Northeastern Denton County in north central Texas...Northwestern Collin County in north central Texas...Cooke County in north central Texas...Southwestern Grayson County in north central Texas...

* Until 800 AM CDT.

* At 453 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms that were producing heavy rainfall from Denton to Gainesville and surrounding areas. Excessive runoff from these thunderstorms will cause minor flooding. Areas that are low lying or usually experience poor drainage are most likely to experience flooding. This means some low water crossings in the region may become impassable. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Denton, Gainesville, Sanger, Prosper, Celina, Pilot Point, Aubrey, Krugerville, Collinsville, Cross Roads, Muenster, Lindsay, Callisburg, Ray Roberts Park Isle Du Bois, Ray Roberts Park Johnson Branch, Lake Kiowa, Tioga and Valley View.

An additional inch of rainfall is expected over the area. This additional rain will make minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 9699 3325 9671 3325 9720 3375 9747 3375 9718 3372 9714 3372 9711 3375 9708

$$

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately Harvey has the look on satellite now overnight of a rapidly intensifying TC. After following the EPAC and WPAC for years, Harvey reminds me of some of those monsters that rapidly go from depression to cat 3 or cat 4 in 24h or less. S TX residents better be prepared for a cat 3 or cat 4 landfall

[Cpv17]

The swath of high rainfall accumulations kind of resembles that of a tornado. That looks pure evil right there.

[DonWrk]

Getting dumped on here in Grayson County. Nice train of storms that I really didn't see coming last night.

[Ntxw]

It's been almost a decade since we've seen something like this sitting in the gulf aimed at Texas. This is going to get real bad really quick for the coast. This is no longer just a rain issue, but wind, surge, and everything else for them.

[Texas Snowman]

A direct hit on the Corpus area by a potential major hurricane pushing 938 mb is a sobering thought.

Everyone remembers what 950 mb Ike did to Galveston and points east.

Galveston has 50,000 residents and communities east of there, only a few thousand total.

Corpus Christi has 305,000 residents.

[Ntxw]

Recon just found 985 pressures this morning a drop of 11mb in just a few hours. Can't emphasize enough I hope S Texas coast residents are ready, if not just get out.

[Texas Snowman]

Port Aransas and Aransas Pass are not communities where I'd want to find myself right now based on current path projections and intensity potential.

Could be a fearsome storm surge.

And downtown Corpus for that matter.