Texas Summer 2017

[weatherdude1108]

This is why I don't put much stock in any one particular model since they can change in less than 12 hours. The trend is more our friend, or enemy depending on situation. Tropical Storm Watches are up across the coastal counties.

Not just the coastal counties ... tropical storm watches are into the counties just to the east/south of Austin. A slight deviation west by Harvey and Travis County would under one. Geez, I can't remember the last time that happened.

I think maybe with Rita or Ike, Travis County and maybe Bexar County were under Tropical Storm Warnings initially, then their paths veered east as they approached the coast, cancelling the watches here. But I'm not certain about that. I tried looking it up, but haven't found anything about the last time Travis County was under a Tropical Storm Warning. I'm sure at some point in the past (whether or not there are written records), we were under some kind of tropical watch/warning.

[South Texas Storms]

This is why I don't put much stock in any one particular model since they can change in less than 12 hours. The trend is more our friend, or enemy depending on situation. Tropical Storm Watches are up across the coastal counties.

Not just the coastal counties ... tropical storm watches are into the counties just to the east/south of Austin. A slight deviation west by Harvey and Travis County would under one. Geez, I can't remember the last time that happened.

I think maybe with Rita or Ike, Travis County and maybe Bexar County were under Tropical Storm Warnings initially, then their paths veered east as they approached the coast, cancelling the watches here. But I'm not certain about that. I tried looking it up, but haven't found anything about the last time Travis County was under a Tropical Storm Warning. I'm sure at some point in the past (whether or not there are written records), we were under some kind of tropical watch/warning.

Latest Euro run shows wind gusts reaching up to hurricane force near SA. Those watches may need to eventually be expanded even more inland.

[weatherdude1108]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
408 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Harvey could bring heavy rains to South Central Texas
Friday into the weekend...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Top story first...

Tropical depression Harvey is expected to approach the middle Texas
coast Friday and move inland late Friday into Saturday. This tropical
system could bring heavy rain late Friday into the weekend across
South Central Texas. Word of caution, there remains a lot of
uncertainty about the track and intensity of Harvey as it moves to
the northwest through Friday. Below are some of the key messaging
points that we are advertising for situational awareness purposes.

Messaging Key Points
1) Heavy rainfall possible east of I-35 Friday through the weekend, possibly
leading to flash flooding and river flooding.
2) Average rainfall
amounts of 6 to 10 inches possible east of I-35 with isolated higher
amounts in excess of 12 inches in the Tropical Storm Watch area.
Areas along and west of I-35 could see 2 to 4 inches.
3) There remains uncertainty in the forecast track of Harvey across
Texas. Small changes to the track or forward speed of Harvey will
result in large changes to impacts across South Central Texas. If
the the track of Harvey shifts to the west or the system stalls, then
much higher amounts will be possible.

Now, the short term forecast period. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible the rest of this afternoon and evening as
a weak frontal boundary stalls across the area. Some of the HiRes
models suggest for the boundary to push to the north and generates
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Hill Country overnight into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
More on Harvey and expected weather conditions through the extended
forecast period.
A weakening upper level ridge across the desert southwest will pull
to the northwest and allows Harvey to approach the middle Texas coast
and make landfall late Friday into early Saturday. The system is
expected to slowly move to the north and into the Hill Country and
possibly stalls as an upper level trough digs down across the Central
Plains Saturday into Sunday. With the operational GFS, GFSensemble
and ECMWF models agree on this solution this far out, we urge you to
closely monitor the weather conditions for the next few days as
changes will be made to the forecast and updated information will be
shared for situational awareness and preparedness before, during and
after the event. There is a good chance for a Flash Flood Watch to go
out later tonight as we continue to adjust upward rainfall amounts,
mainly across the Tropical Storm Watch area.

The upper level ridge above mentioned is expected to rebuild across
the Intermountain West late Sunday into Monday and then push to the
east. Also, an upper level trough is expected to swing across the
Ohio Valley and help Harvey to move to the northeast. This
combination will allow Harvey to curve to the northeast and away from
the area with rain chances ending Tuesday. The rest of the week
looks dry and cooler with highs in the lower 90s....

[JDawg512]

This is why I don't put much stock in any one particular model since they can change in less than 12 hours. The trend is more our friend, or enemy depending on situation. Tropical Storm Watches are up across the coastal counties.

Not just the coastal counties ... tropical storm watches are into the counties just to the east/south of Austin. A slight deviation west by Harvey and Travis County would under one. Geez, I can't remember the last time that happened.

I think maybe with Rita or Ike, Travis County and maybe Bexar County were under Tropical Storm Warnings initially, then their paths veered east as they approached the coast, cancelling the watches here. But I'm not certain about that. I tried looking it up, but haven't found anything about the last time Travis County was under a Tropical Storm Warning. I'm sure at some point in the past (whether or not there are written records), we were under some kind of tropical watch/warning.

I'm thinking your right. I remember for a time they were forecasting winds approaching 80 mph even in the Austin area but of course Rita veered off to the east. Then again come to think of it, could have been Ike... Ugh I remember the dire weather discussions but can't remember which storm it was.

[Brent]

GFS now taking Harvey to Mexico after coming in near Baffin Bay

lol

[TheProfessor]

GFS has 20+ inches of rain in parts of South Texas at hour 126 and it's not over yet.

[gboudx]

I'm thinking your right. I remember for a time they were forecasting winds approaching 80 mph even in the Austin area but of course Rita veered off to the east. Then again come to think of it, could have been Ike... Ugh I remember the dire weather discussions but can't remember which storm it was.

Yeah maybe Ike. Ike come up north, giving the east side of the Metroplex wind and rain.

[Cpv17]

This run of the GFS is unreal. Next Thursday and it still has the center just offshore of the Corpus Christi area.

[dhweather]

CAT FIVE IN THE GULF!!!!

ok, got that out of my system. Now seriously........

Probably a cat 1/2 at landfall somewhere along the central/lower Texas coast.

As y'all already know, the most significant threat is copious amounts of rain in South/Central Texas. Not to belittle a hurricane making landfall, which is bad enough, but 2-3 days of tropical rains will add up quickly.

[dhweather]

In other news.....

I would have not bet on August providing us with 7" of rain - without the aid of a tropical cyclone. We got it, roughly in 10 days.

If (and I believe this to be unlikely at this time) we get significant rain from Harvey, flash flooding could be a problem quickly because of all of the recent rains.

[Ntxw]

Coastal Texas I hope is prepared by now. It's not a lot of time to mass evacuate.

Up north DFW still needs about 3" to make it the wettest summer ever in the next 7 days. Temperatures is cooling to upper 80s to near 90 for highs, lows near 70. Fall is coming...we will be moving threads next Friday.

[Brent]

44 inches on the GFS meteogram for Corpus Christi wow most I've ever seen on a meteogram before. Their average annual rainfall is 31 inches!!

That bullseye has been moving around but the insane amounts haven't decreased

[Rgv20]

0z Forecast Models......They have been inching southward throughout the day. Maybe a SW-W hook instead of a NE-E one?

[Brent]

going into Mexico and fading away seems to be gaining steam rather than threatening areas further east

[starsfan65]

going into Mexico and fading away seems to be gaining steam rather than threatening areas further east

Does it take Houston out of the danger zone?

[weatherdude1108]

going into Mexico and fading away seems to be gaining steam rather than threatening areas further east

Does it take Houston out of the danger zone?

These models can change back on a whim to Houston on the next run, at the rate they've been going.

[Brent]

going into Mexico and fading away seems to be gaining steam rather than threatening areas further east

Does it take Houston out of the danger zone?

These models can change back on a whim to Houston on the next run, at the rate they've been going.

Not to mention the Euro last run was still over there, definitely nothing is set yet.

UKMET also went to Galveston, both models are usually good

[Portastorm]

Actually the 12z Euro had Harvey landfalling just SW of Corpus

[Brent]

:uarrow:

Actually the 12z Euro had Harvey landfalling just SW of Corpus

well I meant it recurved up into Houston after

[Portastorm]

Gotcha.

But I generally agree with your sentiments. At this point with these models nothing would surprise me.