ATL: HARVEY - Models

[RL3AO]

Should we just be planning for a rain event? Or wind too?

Water is the cause of 90% of deaths in US hurricanes. Always plan for a rain/surge event in addition to any possible wind threat.

[tarheelprogrammer]

both HMON and HWRF shifting south, also south/west shifts on GFS, CMC, etc.

is it just me or has the general pattern the last few days been S/W shifts on 12z runs and N/E shifts on 0z runs (across a number of models)?

HMON is same spot, but a lot stronger. The HWRF seems stronger as well, and a bit further north possibly. All this from the 06z runs.

[hd44]

Ukmet has a cat 2 into Houston/ Galveston... stronger than last night. Don't use the actual pressure on this site as it is not too accurate.

[msp]

fwiw, HMON takes the remnants out west toward big bend... seems unlikely

[BigB0882]

Does it seem that more models are taking this more north after landfalling on the upper TX coast and not so many showing it continuing east through Louisiana? I don't want anyone to get flooded but I really want this to stay away from SELA.

[msp]

12z JMA with landfall near corpus

[Airboy]

Would not suprise me if the system gets a bit stronger than the models shows and take a track a bit further to the east and north.

[msp]

NAVGEM with landfall near corpus, GFS ensemble mean near port aransas

decent agreement among 12z runs on landfall in that area

[Portastorm]

All models at 12 Z ironically show basically the exact same landfall point which is Corpus Christi Texas!

This is not accurate information. All models do not show Corpus Christi as landfall. Stop these posts!

The next time we see a post like this from anyone, they get warned. If it happens again, vacations get handed out.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Does it seem that more models are taking this more north after landfalling on the upper TX coast and not so many showing it continuing east through Louisiana? I don't want anyone to get flooded but I really want this to stay away from SELA.

That's what I'm seeing as well BigB. The euro was first showing that solution with the gfs following although more north so it never reemerged back in the gulf. now both show, starting with last nights euro, it barely reemerging and going due north up the state line. Just not sure I see that happening with this setup. Next euro run will be very interesting to say the least.

[Portastorm]

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init

[tolakram]

-- May -- be stronger this run. Hard to compare since we only have 0z and 12z plots from each run.

[hd44]

Much stronger Ecmwf run, this could be significantly strong in 48 hours... because a stronger initial state is worse down the road for more scarier intensification.

[TheStormExpert]

Stronger @ 24hrs. when compared to the 00z Euro run.

12z Euro @ 24hrs.


00z Euro @ 24hrs.

[ROCK]

EURO initialized good...looks beefier...

[hd44]

Euro through at 24 hours has a stronger ridge than the gfs, could shift a bit sw from last run. We shall see by 48 hours.

[hd44]

48 hours is approaching Brownsville ... much closer to the CMC.

[tolakram]

Way west.

[tolakram]

Watching Weathbell updates.

992mb SE of Brownsville, similar position to previous 12Z run.