ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

What the??? I've never seen a move like that in my entire storm tracking life! Is that a glitch???

Andrew-Hermine Style!

[floridasun78]

could 92l move of sw fl is big blow up off coast?

[jlauderdal]

Here are the contest entries, overs are going to need a big day thursday and friday, pwat's are there for it but unders definitely have the advantage right now with yesterday's poor performing atmosphere and today not looking to encouraging either, we need some sun this morning for destabilization. Due to the lack of rain will accept entries until at least noon today, dont be taking the under thinking its in the bag, this setup could hit the over in a few hours..

Jlauderdal-over
Chaser1-over
StormTracker-over
Miami Storm Tracker-under
Boca-Under
Nativefloridian-under

Miami NWS:
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BUBBLING OVER
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT DISPLAYED
AN IMPRESSIVE 2.2"-2.3" ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, INDICATING
ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING, AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
EDGES CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOWLY INCREASE. SHORT RANGE MODELS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND HI-
RES WRF PROG MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL
HEATING. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW MAY CONCENTRATE THE SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST REGIONS. WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE, HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCAL PONDING
OF WATER ON THE STREETS OR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY, DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE, LOW 90S
ARE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST.


TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE TROPICAL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THIS
LOW, SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD LATE
THURSDAY, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST, FURTHER DRAWING IN DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS FORECAST PWAT
VALUES RISE TO BETWEEN 2.3" TO 2.4" AND RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN
RATES COULD LEAD TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING THREAT. THIS
THREAT WILL BE ANALYZED LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TO
SEE IF A FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
NORTHEASTWARD OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA'S ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE, FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. DEEP MOISTURE, ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY
CONCENTRATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA INCLUDING THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. THIS WOULD FURTHER
PROLONG THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED FLOODING POTENTIAL,
DUE TO PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUNDS.


Melbourne NWS:

TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WILL
HAVE POPS FROM FAR 30 PERCENT NORTH TO 60-70 PERCENT (LIKELY) FOR
SRN SECTIONS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. A CONTINUING EAST SWELL AT THE BEACHES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 90 FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE FL WEST
COAST TONIGHT WITH A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND COASTAL SECTIONS PAST LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE SCATTERED RANGE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THU-FRI...THE T-WAVE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL WILL ROUND THE WRN FLANK
OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND WORK ITS WAY UP THE WEST FL COAST ON THU,
DRAWN NORTH BY A FRONTAL TROF DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE WAVE
WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY ACRS CENTRAL FL ON FRI AS THE FRONTAL TROF
PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC. WHILE RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED (ALBEIT
WEAK) CIRCULATIONS IN THE H100-H85 LYR, ANY ORGANIZATION WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. NEVERTHELESS, DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL POOL WITHIN THE TROF, PUSHING PWAT VALUES INTO THE
2.00"-2.25" RANGE, WITH PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST APPROACHING
2.50" AT TIMES.

[Emmett_Brown]

The southern vort we have been tracking looks to be flaring up a bit around Andros this morning. NW outflow from Harvey both shearing it and helping to fan convection.

[Nimbus]

They aren't sure of just how organized this will be as it moves up the west coast of Florida but "AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST" so it will be organized.

[northjaxpro]

The southern vort we have been tracking looks to be flaring up a bit around Andros this morning. NW outflow from Harvey both shearing it and helping to fan convection.

Yeah that vort has blown up a bit this morning I have also been following this closely, especially after I got back home from SC after viewing the total eclipse. I don't think it's going to develop unless i92L starts moving toward the north or northeast. I don't see this system developing until it can pull away from Harvey's outflow. I think the best chance for this system to organize is either off the FL East Coast or up towards the northern Bahamas. It would have a better chance to develop imo.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Morning everyone,

Lets just say my confidence of reaching my guess of 5" is not very high at this time, good luck to the others.

[tropicwatch]

Haven't seen Recon flight out this morning.

[cycloneye]

Haven't seen Recon flight out this morning.

Is almost there.

[tropicwatch]

Thanks google earth not showing it for some reason.

[northjaxpro]

Morning everyone,

Lets just say my confidence of reaching my guess of 5" is not very high at this time, good luck to the others.

Yeah I don't blame the way you are feeling there it seems like 92L has just been around forever, but that's how the weather can play out in the tropics every once in awhile.

[Blown Away]

NWS Melbourne says up to 2.5" for Treasure Coast..
Blown Away - Under

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Nice blow up of convection over Andros this morning, if it can works it's way closer to S.FLA maybe a chance for some decent amount of rain.

[jlauderdal]

NWS Melbourne says up to 2.5" for Treasure Coast..
Blown Away - Under

ok under 6.5 through friday night

[tgenius]

I am deff voting the under, down here in Miami we *may* get 2-2.5 inches I think!

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

J

I thought you were standing firm on ur over Lol folding like the GFS does, just messing with you.

[jlauderdal]

J

I thought you were standing firm on ur over Lol folding like the GFS does, just messing with you.

i am standing firm, i am over 6.5

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Oh some how misinterpreted your post, my mistake good for you, I am not changing it is what is is, but I am really starting to wonder if we will even get 2.5"