ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro through hour 48 is considerably more North and looks to be coming in stronger:

[msp]

that's a substantial shift so far on the euro. 12z skirted coast from BRO to corpus

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro through hour 48:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro through hour 60 is at 998mb. Just a 1mb drop in 12 hours...

[Steve]

Maybe The Triangle on that run? 72h is a big piece of the puzzle. Lots of different scenarios and intensities within 4 days. Kind of crazy. EC looks like it's moving though so unless it slows down, it doesn't appear that it's gonna get that strong.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro through hour 72:

[Cpv17]

Euro has a landfall around Port Aransas, correct?

[Kingarabian]

Maybe The Triangle on that run? 72h is a big piece of the puzzle. Lots of different scenarios and intensities within 4 days. Kind of crazy. EC looks like it's moving though so unless it slows down, it doesn't appear that it's gonna get that strong.

Down to 995mb on the high resolution. 48 hours after it organizes into a TS is plenty of time to bomb out...

[Steve]

If it goes inland. Like the other models, plausible so far but no real consensus. I gotta go to sleep.

[Steve]

Maybe The Triangle on that run? 72h is a big piece of the puzzle. Lots of different scenarios and intensities within 4 days. Kind of crazy. EC looks like it's moving though so unless it slows down, it doesn't appear that it's gonna get that strong.

Down to 995mb on the high resolution. 48 hours after it organizes into a TS is plenty of time to bomb out...

There is plenty of time. But even at hi res, if it goes inland it ended up not being that strong overall. Decent for sure but not terrible unless it stays offshore.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has landfall near middle Texas with pressures back to 998mb at hour 78.

[southerngale]

Maybe The Triangle on that run? 72h is a big piece of the puzzle. Lots of different scenarios and intensities within 4 days. Kind of crazy. EC looks like it's moving though so unless it slows down, it doesn't appear that it's gonna get that strong.

I'm sure most people don't know what The Triangle is. I'm surprised you do. It's Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange for those who don't know. We are very saturated here and this could be bad if it affects this area.

[ronyan]

Euro has a landfall around Port Aransas, correct?

Port O'Connor

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 96:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[hd44]

Big win for the Ukmet as usual this season. Model is doing good.

[Steve]

It ended up going inland farther south probably as a decent TS or maybe Cat 1. At 96 it's moving a bit yalls way but is still south of you. Not as bad as other scenarios. All models should be put to the test with this system.

[Cpv17]

If the models keep trending northeast like this then southwest Louisiana may have a landfall and Texas not getting much of anything.

[Kingarabian]

Through hour 102, Euro strengthens the system in land with winds up to 60kt.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro through hour 120 back over water, 993mb, 66kt winds: