ATL: HARVEY - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

The 00Z GFS looks very plausible so far. The vortex is more compact on this run, which may give it a chance to rapidly intensify just prior to landfall.

[ROCK]

its on the leading edge of that blob where that dude had the X on the discussion thread.. GFS off by some.. not sure the end game makes much difference though

[Alyono]

GFS forms an upper low over NE Mexico that shears this near the coast somewhat, same as what 12Z EC did

of course, as it approaches landfall, the UL ends up in a favorable position, allowing for near rapid intensification

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 66:

[tolakram]

Trend, last image is 0Z 72 hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

Last minute intensification @ 72 Hrs

[ROCK]

high building...not sure how far inland this one gets

[tolakram]

[Steve]

It looks to take a very direct path. How far inland that carries will matter. It can't get super strong on this path so that's good.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 72 down to 987mb:

[Cpv17]

Man Matagorda and Freeport take a beating in this run of the GFS.

[jaguars_22]

Slowly inching to Galveston. Do you guys still think Victoria is the hot spot right now

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 84:

[NDG]

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS forms an upper low over NE Mexico that shears this near the coast somewhat, same as what 12Z EC did

of course, as it approaches landfall, the UL ends up in a favorable position, allowing for near rapid intensification

Yes, a ULL in that position is actually frequently observed in RI episodes. We'll see if it verifies. Of course many factors are at play when talking about possible RI.

[Steve]

That's a good punch to Houston. It's not Alicia level, but downed trees and powelines everywhere based on that GFS run. Not a worst case but a worthy storm for sure.

[Cpv17]

Last nights 0z run of the GFS had this in basically the same spot as this one, but way weaker.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

high building...not sure how far inland this one gets

That's what I'm watching for ROCK. Not necessarily the intensity on this run but how far north and inland this gets. Best case scenario is obviously up and out but just have a feeling its not going to be that simple.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Does anybody have a GFS maximan/res 00z run.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour through hour 96:



Crawling. Don't know if it'll be pushed back into the GOM waters.