Newbie confused now. Great sources hereon, convinced me that trop models are useless, use global.
Now i see a fla water district is using what appear to be tropical models,based on the tracks...i cannot read the tiny type they use in their key.
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This board tells me all globals are going into Mexico. Only useless tropical models are going east. So unable to read the key, I assume the water dist. is using tropical models.
BUT WHY? ARE THEY CLUELESS TURKEYS?
FLA WATER DSTRCT-TURKEY?USELESS MODELS USED-TROP MODELS
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john186292
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John,
Unfortunately some can seem way too cocky in the way they overplay their understanding.
However, Dericho and wxman57 did give you a good start as to what some of the models represent. Let me say this, I've seen plenty of times where the globals have outperformed the tropicals and vice versa. I've seen plenty of times when they were all out to lunch and other times when they all congregated around the same solution.
A-98 was called into question as pretty much of a chump model. But last year, it hit one of the Louisiana landfalls pretty well. Think of a model as the solution or the statistical output of various data input to find that solution. Then understand that weather doesn't follow the models, the models are trying to predict the weather. Sometimes they get stuff right. Often times they're way off. Very few of the models as early as yesterday even saw Larry on the horizon (Canadian model a notable exception). Most wanted to squash him SW/S into Mexico and that was that. Were the global models or the tropical models correct? No.
I haven't even looked at the models tonight, but you're saying that the globals are trending toward Mexico, while the tropicals are trending toward Florida and it all seems confusing because some gurus are saying discount the tropicals in favor of the globals but your water conservation is basing its decisions on the tropicals. In the case of Larry, I'd give you 2-1 odds that the tropicals have a better handle overall on what's going to happen with him at this point.
Steve
Unfortunately some can seem way too cocky in the way they overplay their understanding.
However, Dericho and wxman57 did give you a good start as to what some of the models represent. Let me say this, I've seen plenty of times where the globals have outperformed the tropicals and vice versa. I've seen plenty of times when they were all out to lunch and other times when they all congregated around the same solution.
A-98 was called into question as pretty much of a chump model. But last year, it hit one of the Louisiana landfalls pretty well. Think of a model as the solution or the statistical output of various data input to find that solution. Then understand that weather doesn't follow the models, the models are trying to predict the weather. Sometimes they get stuff right. Often times they're way off. Very few of the models as early as yesterday even saw Larry on the horizon (Canadian model a notable exception). Most wanted to squash him SW/S into Mexico and that was that. Were the global models or the tropical models correct? No.
I haven't even looked at the models tonight, but you're saying that the globals are trending toward Mexico, while the tropicals are trending toward Florida and it all seems confusing because some gurus are saying discount the tropicals in favor of the globals but your water conservation is basing its decisions on the tropicals. In the case of Larry, I'd give you 2-1 odds that the tropicals have a better handle overall on what's going to happen with him at this point.
Steve
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