ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

BTW, the GFS is still persistent that the vorticity to watch out for development by the end of the week is the h70 vorticity that is now to the north of eastern Cuba this morning, near the eastern Bahamas.

[NDG]

We may still end up with weak development out of 92L but with the models showing Harvey getting one heck of an outflow with the UL antiyclone centered over the GOM this system will get northerly shear near FL preventing it from getting too much organized.

NDG, I disagree. There's too much distance between the entities. I think it's completely plausible that something could come out of this particularly as it rides up the SW Atlantic several days from now.

We'll see but at the moment both the GFS and Euro place a heck of an UL anticyclone over the GOM, creating northerly shear all over the FL peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters, 20-30 knots northerly UL winds, too much for it to get too organized, at least while it is near FL.

[Blown Away]

GFS says 3-4 days for the area just N of E Cuba to reach FL coast...

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Can we even call this an invest at this point? I see literally nothing on satellite presentations; no clouds, no organized convection, no spin, no nothing. To see this regenerate would be like watching the Resurrection of Jesus at this point.

Well, i am still thinking that this would be a invest for some remaining time.

Before someone must call this invest is dead or won't regenerate, YOU HAD TO NOTICE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS INVEST. You can't discount THIS vorticity, and i am seeing why NHC predict this will stall for a while when in here because i think the LLC would be taken over from dissapiating northern one to now-much more dominant southern one, which would re-organize this invest from ragged one to healthy one once more. Please don't look at current satellite presentation coning into this invest, instead please look this water vapor loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html. If you look that part you'll notice that this vorticity is now organizing (also recovering from strong easterlies before) and was able to take advantage of warm SSTs and favorable wind shear right now. This is why that some models make this develop some time after it "stalls": southern vortice takes off into the north after bruising Cuba and then organized much more strongly enough into TD 10. This could be the reason why i am insisting THIS would still regenerate and develop into something serious in top of this page (page 43). So, please don't underestimate the southern vorticity and take a serious watch on it. If this does manage to develop and you still deny it thinking this is dead then i am sure you'll regret on it, caught off guard from developing TD 10 then into TS Irma. Please you (and other people who want this dead now) had, and must remember this.
Now, for people who doesn't understand this, are you intimidated?! I took confrontational act for this time since some migh try to write this off immediately from Storm2k while they found out that 92L got developed off-sight, due too much "dying 92" sentiment from some people who don't know that vorticity is pretty much organizing now. That's why i do this, so if you are annoyed i am sorry...

[Blown Away]

The NHC has not acknowledged the vorticity to the SE of 92L up to this point... It's Storm2k that is tracking and curious about that area... Today it appears to be chugging away and will arrive near Fl very soon, however the GFS wants to stall this area out for 3-4 days @Fl/SE Bahamas... Just something to watch, systems have generated from a situation like this before...

[Tireman4]

Bump

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The vorticity to the SE has persisted for over 36 hours and more convection is firing on it. That will be the area to watch as it moves NW towards Florida. That is the area that is far enough away from Harvey to have favorable conditions to spin up like Julia did last year imo. We will see. This mainly looks to be a Rain event and not a wind event for Florida.

[cycloneye]

August 22 TCPOD has plenty of missions for Wednesday and Thursday.The Gulfstream jet will be up around 1:30 PM EDT this afternoon to sample the upper atmosphere and feed data to the models for the 00z runs.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221504
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 22 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-083

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42         FLIGHT TWO -- N0AA 49
       A. 23/1800Z                   A. 24/0000Z
       B  NOAA2 0809A HARVEY         B. NOAA9 0909A HARVEY
       C. 23/1400Z                   C. 23/1730Z
       D. 22.2N 92.8W                D. NA
       E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2130Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71       FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
       A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z          A. 24/0600Z
       B  AFXXX 1009A HARVEY         B. NOAA2 1109A HARVEY
       C. 23/2115Z                   C. 24/0200Z
       D. 22.7N 93.2W                D. 23.2N 93.6W
       E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z       E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49        FLIGHT SIX --  TEAL 72
       A. 24/1200Z                   A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA9 1209A HARVEY         B. AFXXX 1309A HARVEY
       C. 24/0530Z                   C. 24/0945Z
       D. NA                         D. 23.8N 94.1W
       E. NA                         E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[cycloneye]

The August 22nd TCPOD has this.

ALL MISSIONS ON SUSPECT AREA IN THE BAHAMAS
CANCELED BY 22/1130Z.

[CFLHurricane]

The vorticity to the SE has persisted for over 36 hours and more convection is firing on it. That will be the area to watch as it moves NW towards Florida. That is the area that is far enough away from Harvey to have favorable conditions to spin up like Julia did last year imo. We will see. This mainly looks to be a Rain event and not a wind event for Florida.

Still highly skeptical. The TPW presentation shows the southern vorticity got the wind kicked out of it last night.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif



The 12z GFS has the vorticity from the area to the SE of 92L meandering near E Central Florida/NW Bahamas for next 3-4 days... From what I can see no signs of a LLC from this area or 92L...

I'll make a prediction the SE vorticity will get an X soon...

[crimi481]

If it travels over everglades and into s.e. gulf, with lower shear and very warm sst's- things get interesting.

Not a pro.

[cycloneye]

Here are the areas where Gonzo will let go the dropsondes to sample the upper atmosphere.



 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/900032509311721472

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/dadabuh/status/900038327201660928

[SFLcane]

Most convection i've seen in a few days..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some more thunderstorms firing up, but nothing too serious.

[JaxGator]

I'm still in the wait and see camp here with 92L. It could still develop and I'm not letting my eyes off it yet with it so close to land (Emily last month), though Harvey, depending on what it does could keep it in check. Florida, the Southeast Coast and the Bahamas have been lucky so far with this system and quite frankly I'm sure a lot are thankful this didn't turn into a strong hurricane. However, Texas and the Western Gulf Coast may not be so lucky with Harvey with all the dynamics in the atmosphere in making Harvey an strong TS or hurricane with the longer time over water.

[SFLcane]

Looks like it hit the breaks just offshore South Florida. Convection still popping could get some squally wx later this evening.

[Blown Away]

2pm drops the "X" closer to the SE convection...

[Blown Away]

TD12/Katrina went from TD to landfall in SFL in 48 hours...