ATL: HARVEY - Models

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Rgv20
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1261 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:25 am

Spoke too soon....0zHWRF has a 958mb storm about to make landfall just south of 25N in NE Mexico.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1262 Postby weatherguy425 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:26 am

For what it is worth >> OZ HWRF further north, compared to 18Z. Landfall in extreme NE MX. Fitting in with Global model idea of northward turn just prior to landfall.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1263 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:26 am

Alyono wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I know nothing about the HMON. Anyone got cliffs on it?


GFDL replacement. Has the best horizontal resolution at just 2 km for the inner nest. It is basically what an academia model was 15 years ago. First one to catch up to academia

Where do you think this ultimately ends up? I know you were very bullish just yesterday that this was going well south of the border into Mexico.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1264 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:26 am

0z NAVGEM near South Padre Island.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1265 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:27 am

0z NAVGEM

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1266 Postby weatherguy425 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:30 am

South Texas Storms wrote:0z NAVGEM near South Padre Island.


Assuming past-modeled NNW motion, actual landfall may again be mid-TX coast for what it is worth.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1267 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:30 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I know nothing about the HMON. Anyone got cliffs on it?


GFDL replacement. Has the best horizontal resolution at just 2 km for the inner nest. It is basically what an academia model was 15 years ago. First one to catch up to academia

Where do you think this ultimately ends up? I know you were very bullish just yesterday that this was going well south of the border into Mexico.


Texas has a chance to see a hurricane out of this. I did buy water and canned food today
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1268 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:37 am

weatherguy425 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:0z NAVGEM near South Padre Island.


Assuming past-modeled NNW motion, actual landfall may again be mid-TX coast for what it is worth.


You're correct, ends up near Corpus / Matagorda Bay heading northward inland.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1269 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:59 am

00z Euro 24 hrs:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1270 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:03 am

Looks to me ecmwf will be well sw of the Gfs through 48hr.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1271 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:04 am

00z Euro through 48 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1272 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:11 am

00z Euro 72 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1273 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:13 am

So far, what's the difference from its previous run?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1274 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:13 am

Looks to be similar to the 0z Canadian so far.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1275 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:14 am

00z Euro through 72 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1276 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:15 am

Euro northward shift to corpus !!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1277 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:15 am

Landfall in Texas similar to Navgem.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1278 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:15 am

SoupBone wrote:So far, what's the difference from its previous run?


Shifted farther north, and a bit stronger.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1279 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:15 am

Boy that last frame sure does have a slight NE nudge at the end. Or maybe I'm just tired.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1280 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:16 am

00z Euro 96 hours:

Image
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