ATL: HARVEY - Models

[ROCK]

Ok 1915 into Galveston 125mph 931mb...yeah that would suck..

[hd44]

Yeah that would be Allison 2.0...if UKMET verified that would be very close to IKE 2.0 but with more wind.

UKMET would be more like the 1915 hurricane than Ike

I wasn't born yet!! Ugh making look up 1915 hurricane

1915 hurricane was one of the deadliest us landfalling hurricanes .

[TexWx]

I was looking at a few pictures from Texas City after the 1915 Hurricane.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't know if these will swing back, but about 5 million people are about to start worrying. UK is Baytown and eastern Harris Co. and the Triangle. Interesting if not an outlier.

That's what I was thinking Steve. Tomorrow morning when the Facebooks and social media start jumping all over this watch the models at noon drop this back into mexico

[PTrackerLA]

Talk about escalating quickly, the UKMET shifting to Galveston and at that intensity really gives me pause. I'll set an alarm for the ole Euro, I'm wiped from today!

[Rgv20]

0zHMON 977mb Storm near 23N 94W by Thursday Morning

[Wx_Warrior]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

With the Canadian now agreeing and following the euro, GFS jumping much further north, and now the ukmet as well it's definitely looking like this scenario has much better odds then this getting buried down in Mexico now. Of course come tomorrow and tomorrow night they could do a complete 180 and send this back down south but if they are still showing what they have today people better start preparing and get ready.

[South Texas Storms]

0zHMON 977mb Storm near 23N 94W by Thursday Morning

Yep its much stronger and slightly south of 18z.

[mcheer23]

HMON Major Hurricane near the border MX/TX

[ROCK]

0z NAVGEM is running

[Rgv20]

0zHMON 977mb Storm near 23N 94W by Thursday Morning

Yep its much stronger and slightly south of 18z.

Looks like landfall in NE Mexico about 30 miles south of Brownsville as a 949mb Hurricane I'm blaming the Solar Eclipse for tonights crazy model runs.....

[SoupBone]

I know nothing about the HMON. Anyone got cliffs on it?

[ROCK]

I think everyone and their dog is on the NAVGEM site. Taking forever

[Rgv20]

I know nothing about the HMON. Anyone got cliffs on it?

Replaced the GFDL this year if im not mistaken.

0zHWRF is not having what the other models are digesting as it has a 987mb Storm around 22N 95W by Thursday morning.

[South Texas Storms]

I know nothing about the HMON. Anyone got cliffs on it?

Replaced the GFDL this year if im not mistaken.

0zHWRF is not having what the other models are digesting as it has a 987mb Storm around 22N 95W by Thursday morning.

Yep that's correct. Interesting model battle developing here. Hurricane models vs the globals.

[ColdMiser123]

Overwhelming support from GEFS for GFS track. Not a single member landfalls south of the border.

[SoupBone]

I know nothing about the HMON. Anyone got cliffs on it?

Replaced the GFDL this year if im not mistaken.

0zHWRF is not having what the other models are digesting as it has a 987mb Storm around 22N 95W by Thursday morning.

Yep that's correct. Interesting model battle developing here. Hurricane models vs the globals.

Since we're within a less than 4 day window, do the globals historically perform better within this timeframe?

[Wx_Warrior]

For wrestling fans, it's the NWO vs WCW...Or the Monday Night Wars: Raw vs Nitro #modelwars2k17

[Alyono]

I know nothing about the HMON. Anyone got cliffs on it?

GFDL replacement. Has the best horizontal resolution at just 2 km for the inner nest. It is basically what an academia model was 15 years ago. First one to catch up to academia