ATL: HARVEY - Models

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1221 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:22 pm

Cmc is basically corpus also!!! Went from Mexico this morning to corpus tonight
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1222 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:22 pm

0zCMC to Corpus Christi as a strong hurricane
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1223 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:24 pm

UK is north and strong. 961 at landfall.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 85.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2017 0 18.4N 85.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 22.08.2017 12 19.9N 87.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 23.08.2017 24 21.2N 90.2W 1009 24
1200UTC 23.08.2017 36 22.5N 91.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 48 23.4N 92.1W 1001 32
1200UTC 24.08.2017 60 24.5N 92.6W 994 39
0000UTC 25.08.2017 72 25.8N 93.5W 981 53
1200UTC 25.08.2017 84 27.2N 94.5W 971 59
0000UTC 26.08.2017 96 28.7N 94.9W 961 69
1200UTC 26.08.2017 108 30.0N 94.7W 962 65
0000UTC 27.08.2017 120 31.1N 94.1W 979 40
1200UTC 27.08.2017 132 31.9N 93.0W 987 34
0000UTC 28.08.2017 144 33.5N 92.3W 991 27
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1224 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1225 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:28 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:UK is north and strong. 961 at landfall.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 85.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2017 0 18.4N 85.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 22.08.2017 12 19.9N 87.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 23.08.2017 24 21.2N 90.2W 1009 24
1200UTC 23.08.2017 36 22.5N 91.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 48 23.4N 92.1W 1001 32
1200UTC 24.08.2017 60 24.5N 92.6W 994 39
0000UTC 25.08.2017 72 25.8N 93.5W 981 53
1200UTC 25.08.2017 84 27.2N 94.5W 971 59
0000UTC 26.08.2017 96 28.7N 94.9W 961 69
1200UTC 26.08.2017 108 30.0N 94.7W 962 65
0000UTC 27.08.2017 120 31.1N 94.1W 979 40
1200UTC 27.08.2017 132 31.9N 93.0W 987 34
0000UTC 28.08.2017 144 33.5N 92.3W 991 27


Sends it to Houston :eek: Crazy how the models have shifted this evening!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1226 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:30 pm

Well, this escalated quickly........ :double: :eek:

Remember that even if it misses, it is good to review preparations, hurricane kits, and evacuation routes. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best :D .
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1227 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:30 pm

Image
Clear as mud
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1228 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:30 pm

I don't know if these will swing back, but about 5 million people are about to start worrying. UK is Baytown and eastern Harris Co. and the Triangle. Interesting if not an outlier.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1229 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:31 pm

Canadian is copying the 12z Euro

00z Canadian valid 12z Sat

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

12z Euro valid 12z Sat

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1230 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:32 pm

Not good on that UKMET run but plausible and not that far off from the NAM.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1231 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:34 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Canadian is copying the 12z Euro

00z Canadian valid 12z Sat

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

12z Euro valid 12z Sat

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0


It's been more keen on development than the Euro all along. That's obviously not saying much. NAVGEM was middle TX Coast at 18z and north of most models. That should be the next one in.it went over Houston and up through the Piney Woods and over toward Shreveport on the 18z
Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1232 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:35 pm

I was antsy about days ago..when I saw that weird EURO run that I latched onto..it was the odd one then next shifted south again. It sniffed something then...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1233 Postby msp » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:36 pm

CMC drops 20"-24"+ of rain over Houston

Would be a flood of devastating proportions
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1234 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:39 pm

msp wrote:CMC drops 20"-24"+ of rain over Houston

Would be a flood of devastating proportions


Yeah that would be Allison 2.0...if UKMET verified that would be very close to IKE 2.0 but with more wind.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1235 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:41 pm

Still waiting on the NAVGEM
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1236 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:41 pm

0zHMON already has Harvey down to 992mb by mid day Wednesday......Looks like the 0z models see something they like as every single one is coming in stronger.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1237 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:43 pm

ROCK wrote:
msp wrote:CMC drops 20"-24"+ of rain over Houston

Would be a flood of devastating proportions


Yeah that would be Allison 2.0...if UKMET verified that would be very close to IKE 2.0 but with more wind.


UKMET would be more like the 1915 hurricane than Ike
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1238 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:44 pm

Alyono wrote:
ROCK wrote:
msp wrote:CMC drops 20"-24"+ of rain over Houston

Would be a flood of devastating proportions


Yeah that would be Allison 2.0...if UKMET verified that would be very close to IKE 2.0 but with more wind.


UKMET would be more like the 1915 hurricane than Ike


I wasn't born yet!! Ugh making look up 1915 hurricane :lol:
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1239 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:44 pm

When does the Euro start?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1240 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:45 pm

ROCK wrote:
Alyono wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Yeah that would be Allison 2.0...if UKMET verified that would be very close to IKE 2.0 but with more wind.


UKMET would be more like the 1915 hurricane than Ike


I wasn't born yet!! Ugh making look up 1915 hurricane :lol:


4th costliest in US history

may not be a perfect parallel as it came in moving WNW around Freeport. For some reason, I thought it came from the SSW
Last edited by Alyono on Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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