BELIEVE MODELS OR 3 N.ORLEA. METS?

[john186292]

18Z ..three tropical models up on Hurricane Alley site, showing Larry coming back east.

Yet, all three n. orleans mets i just caught, with the models available to them, all three say in unison that the storm is likely to go into Mexico. only one of the three mets added a footnote, "or maybe over to fla."

Should i believe the models or the mets? Two mets, breck and Arridondo, have BS in met, one a correspondence course...poss of the short variety, not sure.

TWO..any idea why the mets disagree with the models? Or do they just not keep up with the latest? shudder.

John new orleans

[Rainband]

Our locals say it will not move or perhaps drift west then over the next couple of days we should know more!! They say the models are all over the place!! Waiting game :o

[Stevex2]

Both of those stations echo official forecasts from the TPC except when a direct threat is imminent. They're going to play it by the book until the time gets closer. As an aside, channel 8 associate met. Jeff Basquin ran circles around the NHC (48 hours in advance) on Claudette. I posted that on this site and it underestandibly generated a lot of interest from SE Texans.

Steve

[Derecho]

18Z ..three tropical models up on Hurricane Alley site, showing Larry coming back east.


Should i believe the models or the mets? Two mets, breck and Arridondo, have BS in met, one a correspondence course...poss of the short variety, not sure.

John new orleans

You should believe the "Models" AND the Mets. Problem is you haven't actually SEEN the "Models."

The BAMD, BAMM, A98E, and LBAR are only about ONE FOURTH of the "Models."

I cannot emphasize ENOUGH that when you look at a plot of those four models YOU ARE NOT LOOKING AT "THE MODELS."

These models are largely ignored even by NHC. The A98E is useless pretty much all the time, and the LBAR is useless for a storm in this position.

And the BAMs really aren't all that great.

There's HUGE amounts of shear over the Northern half of the Gulf for the next week on EVERY global model; even if Larry went north, it could not survive as a tropical system.

See the GLOBAL models:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

And the ECMWF at:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

[Derecho]

Bo As an aside, channel 8 associate met. Jeff Basquin ran circles around the NHC (48 hours in advance) on Claudette. I posted that on this site and it underestandibly generated a lot of interest from SE Texans.

Steve

How can one "run circles around" what was a near-perfect forecast from NHC for Claudette?

[john186292]

Derecho, you are a most comforting fellow (or is it a gal?? LOL). and thanks for the links, much appreciated .

If not in your links, is there some single page with the better models all on it together, as lines, not blobs of pressure area?
Thanks!
john

[wxman57]

18Z ..three tropical models up on Hurricane Alley site, showing Larry coming back east.


Should i believe the models or the mets? Two mets, breck and Arridondo, have BS in met, one a correspondence course...poss of the short variety, not sure.

John new orleans

You should believe the "Models" AND the Mets. Problem is you haven't actually SEEN the "Models."

The BAMD, BAMM, A98E, and LBAR are only about ONE FOURTH of the "Models."

I cannot emphasize ENOUGH that when you look at a plot of those four models YOU ARE NOT LOOKING AT "THE MODELS."

These models are largely ignored even by NHC. The A98E is useless pretty much all the time, and the LBAR is useless for a storm in this position.

And the BAMs really aren't all that great.

There's HUGE amounts of shear over the Northern half of the Gulf for the next week on EVERY global model; even if Larry went north, it could not survive as a tropical system.

See the GLOBAL models:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

And the ECMWF at:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

Great points, Derecho, I completely agree. Anyone following the LBAR is as clueless as that model is. NHC98E is just basically climatology and persistence. BAMM/BAMD are just one notch above the NHC98E, in that they only barely employ any physics in their track forecasts. They just remove the storm from the basic flow pattern and try to estimate where the river of air is moving. This works ok in the deep tropics where the weather pattern isn't changing, and where there are no fronts involved. But those two models aren't as good in the subtropics (north of 20N).

The best models in the current situation would be the "dynamical models", those that analyze the current state of the atmosphere and use complex physics equations to forecast how the atmosphere will behave in the future. These would be models like GFDL, GFS (AVN), ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, Canadian, MM5. You can view these models here:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

I prefer this site for the GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

and this site for the ECMWF (updates around 9pm CDT):
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

These dynamical models are in fairly good agreement in a track into Mexico.

[Rainband]

How can the old model runs help with a system that was just classified??? Thanks

[john186292]

ALL GLOBALS ON ONE PAGE AS TRACKS NOT BLOBS?
Still seeking a quick view. My slow download speed fortyeight kbs..makes pennsyl. page most slow to use. No loop poss on webtv.
Anyone?

[wxman57]

How can the old model runs help with a system that was just classified??? Thanks

If the models were initialized with the low in the Bay of Campeche, then there's no reason to think they won't be able to predict the track as accurately before as after a storm is given a name. Just because the NHC names it Larry doesn't mean it wasn't there before for the models to see.

[Dean4Storms]

18Z ..three tropical models up on Hurricane Alley site, showing Larry coming back east.


Should i believe the models or the mets? Two mets, breck and Arridondo, have BS in met, one a correspondence course...poss of the short variety, not sure.

John new orleans

You should believe the "Models" AND the Mets. Problem is you haven't actually SEEN the "Models."

The BAMD, BAMM, A98E, and LBAR are only about ONE FOURTH of the "Models."

I cannot emphasize ENOUGH that when you look at a plot of those four models YOU ARE NOT LOOKING AT "THE MODELS."

These models are largely ignored even by NHC. The A98E is useless pretty much all the time, and the LBAR is useless for a storm in this position.

And the BAMs really aren't all that great.

There's HUGE amounts of shear over the Northern half of the Gulf for the next week on EVERY global model; even if Larry went north, it could not survive as a tropical system.

See the GLOBAL models:

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

And the ECMWF at:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

"There's HUGE amounts of shear over the Northern half of the Gulf for the next week on EVERY global model; even if Larry went north, it could not survive as a tropical system."

Not necessarily true, the shear will flux back and forth and also, any TC moving parelell to the shear will lessen it's effect. Shear at 20mph from the west will have a lessened effect on a hurricane moving eastward at say, 23mph!

[john186292]

Hi level shear is not twenty. rather, seventy to one hundred mph, as posted on this board if i recall correctly.

[john186292]

How can hurricanalley.com be so clueless as to post useless models, when global models are free for them to post? I assume they are as free as the tropical models.
PUZZLED
john new orleans