ATL: HARVEY - Models

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170


Navy north of corpus

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017082106&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=170


Navy north of corpus

Yeah it's loading late I just saw it and it's trending north but honestly that's a little too far North lol

[stormlover2013]

just depends where it comes off the Yucatan, Ridge is breaking, so the north component is there. remember 4-5 days away still

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The overall average of all models take this into far northern Mexico Border which means overall there will be a landfall in that general area

[Frank P]

It's the trends that count in the long run... I can't count the number of times when it was so clear that a storm would hit a certain location... then start the trends, Katrina was a prime example of that... trend kept moving west for several days until it finally focused on the LA/MS line... this happens all the time... so until they stop ping ponging back and forth, once a definable trend is established I think we can get a good idea of the final destination... I don't think we are anywhere near that now.... too much uncertainty...especially with a system that is still classified as a TW... imo

[stormlover2013]

mm I would say Navy, GFS, runs make this a brownsville landfall if u go by average now.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=170

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

mm I would say Navy, GFS, runs make this a brownsville landfall if u go by average now.

I'm thinking it'll landfall somewhere between northern Mexico aND Matagorda Bay

[Frank P]

Navy goes as far as south central TX coast at 108 hrs... could just be an outlier now, have to watch to see if any others take the bait... interesting run for sure... coming to fruition is another matter...

[stormlover2013]

GFS has basically corpus now...so who knows man lol

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I'm thinking corpus christi will be safe but who knows

[Cpv17]

Actually guys the NAVGEM has a landfall pretty close to Galveston on that last run.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Actually guys the NAVGEM has a landfall pretty close to Galveston on that last run.

It's a outlier

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I could be wrong but I don't see Galveston I'm play this thing would have to move due North !

[cycloneye]

[Cpv17]

It's the first run I've seen that takes it that far north. I'd still say the consensus is around the border, but inching its way farther north.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Latest 0Z Calibrated GFS Ensembles bullish on development for #Harvey once the system pushes back over the GoMEX; Texas should monitor

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/899621391007457280

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

@MJVentrice
Latest 0Z Calibrated GFS Ensembles bullish on development for #Harvey once the system pushes back over the GoMEX; Texas should monitor

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/899621391007457280

Texas needs to be ready

[Stormcenter]

The trend is north now and I would not be surprised to see it continue. IMO

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

The trend is north now and I would not be surprised to see it continue. IMO

You call it a trend but a few shifted south as well I'm expecting it to be in between and just hit near the border !