Breaking news=Larry has formed

[WXBUFFJIM]

We now have a tropical storm in the southwestern gulf of mexico at this time.

000
WONT41 KNHC 012230
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2003

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW
HAS LITTLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINING...AND THEREFORE THE LOW IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LARRY. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM LARRY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[WeatherEmperor]

LOL I had to find out about this by watching the Tropical Update on TWC.

[lilbump3000]

I knew sooner or later it will become a Tropical Storm Larry.

[lilbump3000]

I say an advisory will be issued at 7 P.M. CDT

[PTrackerLA]

Welcome Larry!

[lilbump3000]

The question is how long will he sit down there are will he make a move.

[lilbump3000]

The National Hurricane Center project path will come out with the advisory and we shall see what they think.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just feel bad for whoever will have to go through Larry. He looks to be a major rain maker.

[GulfBreezer]

HHHMMMMM? I can't wait to find out what projected path they will show........ :?

[GulfTide]

GulfBreezer It will be interesting to see if Larry comes closer to you or to me at work in Gulf Shores. I will be looking at the projected path to see what my weekend will look like. We have to start getting ready

[lilbump3000]

Looking on the model maps look like there coming together just south of the mouth of mississippi river.

[Anonymous]

Whoa.
Looks like Opal, too much like Opal..

[wxman57]

The NHC will never cease to amaze me. After putting out the statement about it slowly detatching from the front at 5pm and possible being upgraded in the next 24 hours, they upgrade it an hour later after I've driven home.

Well, the models that are indicating the northeast movement toward Florida are not the most reliable models in the current environment. LBAR and NHC98E can be pretty much ignored as generally worthless. BAMM/BAMD don't do well in the subtropics, particularly when fronts are involved. The true dynamical tropical model - GFDL indicates a SW movement into Mexico. The other dynamical models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET) indicate west or southwest movement into Mexico. We'll have to wait a few hours to see the ECMWF.

I suspect that the forecast track will be for a slow west movement and inland into Mexico this weekend as the dynamical models (which take into account the current and forecast atmospheric conditions across the Gulf) are suggesting. If they don't, I have a 30 minute drive back to the office and a late night at work.

[Anonymous]

I could use a few days off school here in West Palm

[Rainband]

So your post about they'd upgrade it if it was gonna get picked up by the front meant I am confused now

[GulfTide]

At least from 2:30 PM local NWS discussion, the locals expect a novement to the W


FXUS64 KMOB 011929
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2003

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND AL SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH NEXT 12 HOURS GIVING ANOTHER BOOSTER SHOT OF COOL/DRY
AIR TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE SURFACE TO MIDLEVEL LOW
WHICH DEVELOPED YESTERDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF IS BEHAVING AS ADVERTISED SO FAR. THE NATIONAL
CENTERS HAVE BEEN DEBATING THAT LOW JUST ABOUT ALL DAY. PER A
LISTEN IN ON THE LATEST CONFERENCE CALL...CONCENSUS RIGHT NOW IS FOR
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO REMAIN FAIRLY CUTOFF...WANDERING
AROUND DOWN THERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MAYBE A DRIFT TO THE
WEST. SEE NO REASON ATTM TO NOT EXPECT THE SAME.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THE WEAK LOW ADVERTISED BY THE GFS
YESTERDAY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY IS MATERIALIZING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST AND BE A NON-PLAYER IN OUR
PATTERN.

.EXTENDED...AS THE 2 LOWS DRIFT AWAY FROM US...AND AS THE STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS EAST TO THE CAROLINAS...WE EXPECT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX A BIT BY FRIDAY. WE SHOULD EVEN SEE
A BRIEF RETURN FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN
RETURN NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL GET BY SUNDAY.

FOR NOW...WE WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS
COMING IN 06Z-18Z SUNDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT OUR WAY SUNDAY MORNING. WE
TRENDED WITH THE 12Z GFS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION SUNDAY...AND SPED
IT UP ABOUT 6 HOURS FROM THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE.


est

[Stormsfury]

Well, the models that are indicating the northeast movement toward Florida are not the most reliable models in the current environment. LBAR and NHC98E can be pretty much ignored as generally worthless. BAMM/BAMD don't do well in the subtropics, particularly when fronts are involved. The true dynamical tropical model - GFDL indicates a SW movement into Mexico. The other dynamical models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET) indicate west or southwest movement into Mexico. We'll have to wait a few hours to see the ECMWF.

The ECMWF keeps Larry down in the BOC and moves it slowly westward (generally) into MEX after Day 3.

SF

[wxman57]

So your post about they'd upgrade it if it was gonna get picked up by the front meant I am confused now

I think they're just toying with me now....

Maybe the thinking went more like this "What the hell, let's call it Larry!"

[Rainband]

So your post about they'd upgrade it if it was gonna get picked up by the front meant I am confused now

I think they're just toying with me now....

Maybe the thinking went more like this "What the hell, let's call it Larry!"

[Stormsfury]

So your post about they'd upgrade it if it was gonna get picked up by the front meant I am confused now

I think they're just toying with me now....

Maybe the thinking went more like this "What the hell, let's call it Larry!"

They must have known you were on the way home.

SF